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Honest_Rob
Postmaster General
Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 5663
Location: trying to get back to even
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 Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 11:36 pm Post subject: Fold the Nuts? It's more interesting than you think I promise. |
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Villain is 16/3/1(240)
Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
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BTN: $13.85
SB: $44.25
Hero (BB): $33.15
UTG: $10
UTG+1: $31.20
MP: $19.40
CO: $31.65
Pre-Flop: A 5 dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.25, MP folds, CO calls $0.25, BTN folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks
Flop: ($1) T Q K (4 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks
Turn: ($1) J (4 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.80, UTG+1 raises to $30.95 and is All-In, 2 folds, Hero ? |
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cubbies760
Next Year Is Here
Joined: 19 Oct 2006
Posts: 6594
Location: Suburban Chicago
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| Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 11:41 pm Post subject: |
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I can see the argument for folding here. You have hardly anything invested in this pot, and he could have a suited Ace and be freerolling for a flush. Why throw $30 into a pot that would be chasing the buck that you already have invested?
You also have the rake to consider, on a big chopped pot. |
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IABoomer
Moderator
Joined: 29 Oct 2006
Posts: 3912
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| Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 11:42 pm Post subject: |
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| I can see that. He's only pushing with AsXx, so at best, you're chopping, and at worst, you're against two spades and he's freerolling to a nut flush. |
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Flying_Kiwi
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 5583
Location: Popping bubbles
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| Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 11:45 pm Post subject: |
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| Call for the FTP points. |
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renegades8
Forum Fish
Joined: 26 Nov 2006
Posts: 3403
Location: spewing @ 25NL
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| Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 12:49 am Post subject: |
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I remember Bart Hanson talking about this on one of his podcast episodes and it was almost exactly like you described.
| IABoomer wrote: |
| I can see that. He's only pushing with AsXx, so at best, you're chopping, and at worst, you're against two spades and he's freerolling to a nut flush. |
Why is he only shoving AsXx and not the other Ax's? I understand how he'll realize that since he has the A he's never going to be beat, but he's probably losing some value there and he's not really gaining anything by doing it. I guess it kind of makes sense since this way he will like always just pick up the whole pot instead of splitting it, but I donno if he's thinking like that at 25NL.
I still think it's almost certainly a fold though given that you're like never ahead here. One thing that is important to note is that he seems pretty nitty over a fairly large number of hands, so I doubt he's got anything worse than an ace. If he was more aggro I might think about calling though. |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 5872
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 3:35 am Post subject: |
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| IABoomer wrote: |
| He's only pushing with AsXx |
I don't understand this assumption...
Anyway, we're calling to win $1.30, when we're going to be charged $1.50 in rake. Even if he never has the flush draw, it's -EV to call here. The only way it would ever be +EV to call is if he is ever doing this without an A, and I would seriously doubt that of a 16/3 player. |
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Honest_Rob
Postmaster General
Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 5663
Location: trying to get back to even
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| Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 3:40 am Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
Anyway, we're calling to win $1.30, when we're going to be charged $1.50 in rake. Even if he never has the flush draw, it's -EV to call here. The only way it would ever be +EV to call is if he is ever doing this without an A, and I would seriously doubt that of a 16/3 player. |
This was my thought exactly. The play with the most +EV is folding even if he only has an Ace with no flush draw. The money we lose in rake is greater than the amount of money in the pot that we split. So calling and chopping loses money, calling and losing to a flush loses money but folding loses nothing more. It's odd but the correct play here is to fold the nuts. |
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bdbranch
Banned
Joined: 13 Mar 2008
Posts: 503
Location: At home wdyt. Btw. I'm not opinionated all the time, umm can you be opinionated when you're asleep
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| Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 5:08 am Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| IABoomer wrote: |
| He's only pushing with AsXx |
I don't understand this assumption...
Anyway, we're calling to win $1.30, when we're going to be charged $1.50 in rake. Even if he never has the flush draw, it's -EV to call here. |
I was surprised that this wasn't the first answer. The thread begged for this answer and it wasn't until the fifth response that someone answered it. |
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BigDBoreen
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 29 Jun 2007
Posts: 1679
Location: Vernon, BC
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| Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 6:02 am Post subject: |
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Im surprised noone has thought of the fact that the person may not have an Ace. What if he is pushing trying to make you fold? Or he has top 2 or trips or the 9 and is an idiot and pushed way over the top.
So if you have $1.30 in and would only lose $1.50 on a chop pot. Id say it is a call for the fact it is a small chance he has the As Xs, there is a reasonable possibility he doesnt have one of the 3 Aces, and it will more than likely be a chop.
Id say you win or chop way more times then you will lose if you call and only save $0.20 folding so I think it is a call in this spot.
Although I would like to add that idiots who push when its obviously a split pot in a cash game deserve to be beat over the head. |
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jesse6520
Four of a Kind
Joined: 16 Oct 2007
Posts: 334
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| Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 11:20 am Post subject: |
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| easy fold. |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 7331
Location: Quitting smoking
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| Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 5:04 pm Post subject: |
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| IzanPoker wrote: |
Im surprised noone has thought of the fact that the person may not have an Ace. What if he is pushing trying to make you fold? Or he has top 2 or trips or the 9 and is an idiot and pushed way over the top.
So if you have $1.30 in and would only lose $1.50 on a chop pot. Id say it is a call for the fact it is a small chance he has the As Xs, there is a reasonable possibility he doesnt have one of the 3 Aces, and it will more than likely be a chop.
Id say you win or chop way more times then you will lose if you call and only save $0.20 folding so I think it is a call in this spot.
Although I would like to add that idiots who push when its obviously a split pot in a cash game deserve to be beat over the head. |
No. Just no. It's much, much more likely that he's freerolling on us than that he has a hand worse than ours. |
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mstram
High Card
Joined: 16 Feb 2008
Posts: 3
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| Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:15 am Post subject: |
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| Please post or pm me villian's sn so I can avoid this moron ... betting 30x the pot ! |
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BBCOACH44
Full Tilt Coach
Joined: 24 Oct 2006
Posts: 3118
Location: Baseball Field or Gym
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| Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:40 am Post subject: |
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| Honest_Rob wrote: |
| HuJwang wrote: |
Anyway, we're calling to win $1.30, when we're going to be charged $1.50 in rake. Even if he never has the flush draw, it's -EV to call here. The only way it would ever be +EV to call is if he is ever doing this without an A, and I would seriously doubt that of a 16/3 player. |
This was my thought exactly. The play with the most +EV is folding even if he only has an Ace with no flush draw. The money we lose in rake is greater than the amount of money in the pot that we split. So calling and chopping loses money, calling and losing to a flush loses money but folding loses nothing more. It's odd but the correct play here is to fold the nuts. |
An excellent Post Rob. I will admit I may have called before I read this,
but if it happens now I may do the same. Thanks....  |
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renegades8
Forum Fish
Joined: 26 Nov 2006
Posts: 3403
Location: spewing @ 25NL
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| Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 6:40 pm Post subject: |
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| mstram wrote: |
| Please post or pm me villian's sn so I can avoid this moron ... betting 30x the pot ! |
Meh, depending on what they had/what their thought process was, it might not be as bad as it seems. |
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