Online Poker Forum - KKK

Tsiarxof · High Card Joined: 01 Feb 2006 Posts: 2

I usually try to analyze my plays and think of ways I could be playing better, but the comments at the end of this hand made me realize that I really don't do it enough. I think the other players' assessment here is probably correct and without their comments I would have just been thankful for the outcome and moved on to other things.

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Full Tilt Poker Game #415110841: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (2684673), Table 1 - 25/50 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:35:43 ET - 2006/02/01
Seat 1: WTA (1,445)
Seat 2: Rounder63 (1,795)
Seat 3: Chow Yun Fat (1,925)
Seat 4: SuperSeal (155)
Seat 5: goblue97 (1,080)
Seat 6: ToniRose (1,795)
Seat 7: I B Fishin (1,470)
Seat 8: Tsiarxof (1,375)
Seat 9: Makoman (2,460)
WTA posts the small blind of 25
Rounder63 posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Tsiarxof [Qc As]
Chow Yun Fat folds
SuperSeal folds
goblue97 calls 50
ToniRose folds
I B Fishin folds
Tsiarxof raises to 200
Makoman folds
WTA folds
Rounder63 folds
goblue97 calls 150
*** FLOP *** [Kd Ks Kc]
goblue97 checks
Tsiarxof bets 475
goblue97 raises to 880, and is all in
Tsiarxof calls 405
goblue97 shows [3h 3c]
Tsiarxof shows [Qc As]
*** TURN *** [Kd Ks Kc] [6h]
*** RIVER *** [Kd Ks Kc 6h] [Ah]
goblue97 shows a full house, Kings full of Threes
Tsiarxof shows a full house, Kings full of Aces
Tsiarxof wins the pot (2,235) with a full house, Kings full of Aces
goblue97 stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2,235 | Rake 0
Board: [Kd Ks Kc 6h Ah]
Seat 1: WTA (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: Rounder63 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: Chow Yun Fat didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: SuperSeal didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: goblue97 showed [3h 3c] and lost with a full house, Kings full of Threes
Seat 6: ToniRose didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: I B Fishin didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: Tsiarxof showed [Qc As] and won (2,235) with a full house, Kings full of Aces
Seat 9: Makoman (button) didn't bet (folded)

goblue97 (Observer): idiot
Rounder63: i agree
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Obviously neither goblue97 or I were worried about the four-of-a-kind, which I think is probably right. The mistake I know I made was taking that to mean that the flop changed nothing. I thought I had, at the worst, close to even odds with anything he had pre-flop, so I figured I would continue pushing my hand. What I failed to realize was that with only 2 cards left, I was a big underdog against any pocket pair. Idiot. A better move, I think, would have been a half-the-pot sized continuation bet on the flop and then a fold to his reraise.

Think I'm analyzing this correctly?

(BTW, first post on the forum. Reading your thoughts on other people's hands have been really helpful.)

Moshiach · Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 7:25 pm Post subject:

Yeah they're tough situations where the board has a set or 2 pair and you hold an ace, i don't think you made a too bad move, people love to bluff at pots with these boards. But your correction of yourself is probably what i would've done.

jbrennen · Straight Flush Joined: 16 Aug 2005 Posts: 422

If you look at it strictly from the standpoint of chip count and pot odds, you had to call his all-in, even if you put him on his exact hand. You called 405 chips, which made the pot 2235 chips. If you're better than 18% to win the pot, it's a +EV move to call him. And in fact, you were 28% to win and 3% to tie, so calling his all-in was very reasonable.

From a tourney model, here are your expected shares of the tournament prize pool, based on your four possible outcomes after he pushes all-in:

You fold: $5.02
You call and lose: $2.18
You call and tie: $9.64
You call and win: $16.15

(Calculated using http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html )

So by calling his pair of 3s, your expectation is $2.18 x 69% + $9.64 x 3% + $16.15 x 28% = $6.32.

So again, even assuming that you put him on his exact hand, calling has an expected value of +$1.30 compared to folding.

On the other hand, if he had pushed all-in immediately on the flop, your expected share of the tournament prize if you fold is $8.15. So calling the all-in would have an expected value of -$1.83, and would be a big mistake given the hand that he had.

Your opponent actually screwed himself over with his check-raise, by making sure that you wouldn't fold. He put his tourney on the line as only a 72% favorite and got unlucky. I'd say your postflop play was better than his. Don't feel bad about catching the card you needed to win -- you paid to see the turn and the river and it worked out for you.

Big Fish · Flush Joined: 18 Aug 2005 Posts: 138 Location: Lincoln, NE

Regardless, "KKK" is a poor choice for a thread title. Razz

Tsiarxof · High Card Joined: 01 Feb 2006 Posts: 2

I've heard of ICM but never actually seen someone show how you can use it to make a decision like this. It makes sense.

Except... I have a nagging feeling that following pot odds (and ICM) in tournaments doesn't work the same way it does in cash games. I just feel like, if you're only going to win in a given situation 1 out of 10 times, the 9 times you lose are going to prevent you from finally getting to the one time you win. I know, over time, making the right calls should eventually work out... but look at it this way:

If you're in a cash game, thinking about making a call with, for whatever reason, your entire bankroll... do you think about pot odds?

I think tournaments must work the same way, on a smaller scale.

jbrennen · Straight Flush Joined: 16 Aug 2005 Posts: 422

barold · High Card Joined: 16 Jan 2006 Posts: 12

i think you played the hand fine. the dude with threes really really really overvalued his hand. in that situation, it wasnt really even a great call for him before the flop with threes, because the only he was trying to do was get lucky and flop a set. it was very easy for you to have any pocket pair 4's or higher and he would have been drawing dead.

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