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nilgiri Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007 Posts: 1376 Location: New Hampshire
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Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 1:41 pm Post subject: |
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So no one thinks a raise might be a good idea? I'm in position facing two limpers. Limpers generally don't want to play big pots, and raising can often isolate one or fold them all out. Well, anyway, I raised...
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HAND #22
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Full Tilt Poker, $24 + $2 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 25/50 Blinds, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Wood16 (MP2): 1,214
Hero (CO): 1,712
landocaly (BTN): 1,650
XBELLO (SB): 1,886
fladimiir (BB): 2,123
Tyler AAAA (UTG): 1,360
Mcclaud222 (UTG+1): 1,020
Chouby75 (MP1): 2,535
Pre-Flop: (75) A 9 dealt to Hero (CO)
Tyler AAAA folds, Mcclaud222 calls 50, Chouby75 folds, Wood16 calls 50, Hero raises to 205, 4 folds, Wood16 calls 155
Flop: (535) A 6 4 (2 Players)
Wood16 checks, Hero ???
So now what? I raised and hit my A, and it is now checked to me. |
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Badlydrawnboy Flush
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 Posts: 127
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Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 2:09 pm Post subject: |
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| Well, very simple: bet your ace and bet big enough, I think. I would try something like 350. If he does have an ace himself, we will find out soon enough but probably he doesn't. |
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dcdoorknob Royal Flush
Joined: 11 May 2007 Posts: 929 Location: Mississippi
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Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 2:15 pm Post subject: |
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Well it seems to be an interesting strategy that I haven't actually tried enough to know if it works, running over the loose/passive calling stations. I don't know, I'm still skeptical.
As played, of course you must bet, 300 to 350 sounds good to me. |
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zamkin Pair
Joined: 21 Jan 2007 Posts: 31 Location: Erie, PA
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Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 10:24 pm Post subject: |
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Its only 22 hands in but if I have any stats on this guy it will determine how I play. I am betting at least 300 here no matter what though. If he calls I would prolly slow it down after that, because of your aggressive style so far you are going to get slow played if someone hits hard.
He limped in, so if he calls I am putting him on a weak A (less likely since checked flop, though A6 or A4 he may check to u), 77-1010 and isnt sure you have the A, or some kind of suited connecters and he hit the 6 or 4. He also would check a set to you here as you have been playing so aggressive.
I think 300 to 350 is enough to get the info we need from him, doesnt look like you are trying to force a fold but is still a strong bet here with the 25/50 blinds. Also drops him below 1k and if he is willing to do that you are most likely behind. Again it makes a big difference if I know his % of hands that went to showdown and % won and how aggressive he plays. |
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zamkin Pair
Joined: 21 Jan 2007 Posts: 31 Location: Erie, PA
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Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 10:35 pm Post subject: |
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I would also like to add that way back on hand 5 or whatever when u had AK, I would also just smooth call here. I dont like the reraise this early on, I am only doing that here with QQ+. I would call, you have good position and an advantage on the flop. I can fold AK easy this early if I miss the flop and need to commit alot of chips to see another card. If its later stages of the game with bigger blinds I reraise or push for sure.
I just only see you getting called by QQ+ this early, I cant rely on the players being bad enough to call me from behind a high enogh % of the time, and I can not control their actions only my own so I call here and see what happens. I like playing flops in position with good cards like AK anyway, and I dont want to blindly gamble with AK high this early, as that can easily end up being your final hand. |
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nilgiri Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007 Posts: 1376 Location: New Hampshire
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Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 1:39 pm Post subject: |
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| zamkin wrote: |
| Its only 22 hands in but if I have any stats on this guy it will determine how I play. I am betting at least 300 here no matter what though. If he calls I would prolly slow it down after that, because of your aggressive style so far you are going to get slow played if someone hits hard. |
I had HM running, so I had stats. I can't recall the stats off the top of my head, and unfortunately HM doesn't let me get the stats at the time of the hand (yet, this feature is coming). But over 103 hands he has the following stats:
VP$IP 49%
aggression 3.3
folds to c-bets 89%
WTSD 30%
W$SD 38%
(Sorry, I don't really know the standard format for listing stats...)
Again, I don't remember what the stats looked like at the time...
| Quote: |
He limped in, so if he calls I am putting him on a weak A (less likely since checked flop, though A6 or A4 he may check to u), 77-1010 and isnt sure you have the A, or some kind of suited connecters and he hit the 6 or 4. He also would check a set to you here as you have been playing so aggressive.
I think 300 to 350 is enough to get the info we need from him, doesnt look like you are trying to force a fold but is still a strong bet here with the 25/50 blinds. Also drops him below 1k and if he is willing to do that you are most likely behind. Again it makes a big difference if I know his % of hands that went to showdown and % won and how aggressive he plays. |
So I agree with most of this. But I don't see how this means I should c-bet. If I bet out 300-350 and he calls or shoves, sure I get info. I get info that I need to shut down. If he folds, then I was ahead. I don't see how that helps me... basically, I'm c-betting to (a) lose my c-bet if I am behind, or (b) fold him out if I am ahead. Only occasionally I get him to call with a worse ace or PP or something.
What I would like is to get money from him when I ahead, and lose less money (if possible) when I am behind. I think I achieve this by checking the flop and keeping the pot small, no? This just has a lot of benefits for me: The pot is smaller OTT. Villain now thinks I am weaker than I am and might either bluff or call a bet when he would have folded OTF instead.
| zamkin wrote: |
| I would also like to add that way back on hand 5 or whatever when u had AK, I would also just smooth call here. I dont like the reraise this early on, I am only doing that here with QQ+. I would call, you have good position and an advantage on the flop. I can fold AK easy this early if I miss the flop and need to commit alot of chips to see another card. If its later stages of the game with bigger blinds I reraise or push for sure. |
Yeah, not shoving seems to be the consensus here. I think I much prefer a call than a 3-bet, simply because I don't know what to do OTF after a 3-bet. I'd like to hear from others who recommend a 3-bet.
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HAND #22
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Full Tilt Poker, $24 + $2 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 25/50 Blinds, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Wood16 (MP2): 1,214
Hero (CO): 1,712
landocaly (BTN): 1,650
XBELLO (SB): 1,886
fladimiir (BB): 2,123
Tyler AAAA (UTG): 1,360
Mcclaud222 (UTG+1): 1,020
Chouby75 (MP1): 2,535
Pre-Flop: (75) A 9 dealt to Hero (CO)
Tyler AAAA folds, Mcclaud222 calls 50, Chouby75 folds, Wood16 calls 50, Hero raises to 205, 4 folds, Wood16 calls 155
Flop: (535) A 6 4 (2 Players)
Wood16 checks, Hero checks
Turn: (535) 2 (2 Players)
Wood16 checks, Hero ???
I'm curious if people think the flop check was bad. (Why or why not?) And now what do I do? |
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dcdoorknob Royal Flush
Joined: 11 May 2007 Posts: 929 Location: Mississippi
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Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 3:31 pm Post subject: |
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Well if you take to not betting hands like top pair on the flop too often, your c-bets will start to lose credibility for the good/observant player, it seems like it would be pretty easy to take advantage of that when you do c-bet. Certainly I wouldn't expect every player in these types of tourneys to pay enough attention to hurt you, but there are some that would.
That said I guess since the flop is so dry I could see a check, but the pot is already about 1/3rd of your stack so I think taking it down on the flop is a fine result. Overall I like your line of thought better for deeper stacked situations than this. Also, given this guys stats (and overall image just on hands so far, loose and bad), I don't feel completely comfortable giving up the hand even if he shows resistance (considering the pot odds we'd be getting at such a point), which means taking it down on the flop before he has more chances to draw out is fine with me. Still I don't think checking is bad really, just not my preference.
As played, I'd go ahead and bet 300 here on the turn. A few possible draws have arrived, although maybe unlikely ones. Taking the pot now is a good result, and he doesn't appear eager to bluff anyways assuming he does have a worse hand. |
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Badlydrawnboy Flush
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 Posts: 127
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Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 6:14 pm Post subject: |
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I think the flop check was bad because you are allowing a free card for your opponent. I want to win this pot on the flop, and the pot is big enough.
What if he called you with 67s or A4? Basically, what I'm doing on the flop when I'm betting 350 is not only trying to win the pot, it's also a bet for information. If he calls, slow down because he probably has two pair or a set. If he doesn't have anything, he will probably fold it here and you win.
I think your reasoning about "only better hands will call me" is wrong. This is a good reasoning on the river, but not on the flop with 2 cards to come imo. If you check it here, anybody with any kind of draw or whatever will check behind and you're ready for one big SUCKOUT.
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zamkin Pair
Joined: 21 Jan 2007 Posts: 31 Location: Erie, PA
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Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 7:16 pm Post subject: |
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Without the flop bet I am unsure where u stand here. If you bet 200 to 350 at the flop and he calls my read would be as follows.
Ok I think he is slow playing you now. His aggr is 3.3 with over a 40 VP. That is super aggressive. This is not normal for him to check, and your 200 bet on the flop looked weak enough for someone with that much agg to try and reraise you here or lead out turn.
Unless this guy is just worried and truely respects your raise pre and is holdng on to a weak ace, or mid pair, he looks to be slow playing to me.
I check down from here and fold to any bet over 300 prolly. It could be bad, but i recover from a bad fold easier than bad calls :p
As its played now its checked to you on the turn. I would play it the same as I would from the flop. Put in a bet of 300 and see how he reacts. I may fold to reraise though, so checking again now isnt such a bad idea either. Also since you checked the flop he may think he is really winning with that mid pair. Its a lot harder for me to read as played.
It may come down to is that guy getting his money in good even though he has only won 38% of showdowns, or was he behind and just cant fold a weak hand. If its the latter I would not be as worried here to try and milk my top pair for more chips. It most cases though I am worried about playing 1 pair for value and would have rather won the pot on the flop. |
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Sand Wedge_100 Straight
Joined: 27 Sep 2007 Posts: 110
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Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 10:52 am Post subject: |
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What a fine mess.
Just say he called with an ace.
8 out of 13 times you are beat, 4 more and he has a str8 draw. Your only hope is to force him to fold or hit a 9. I believe he is sloplaying or called with a good pp. I check it to the end & fold to 300+. |
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nilgiri Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007 Posts: 1376 Location: New Hampshire
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Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 11:33 am Post subject: |
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For some reason, I don't find it that difficult to get a read after checking the flop like this. So betting for information seems like spew to me. I don't think I'm getting a whole lot more information (at the price I'm paying) by betting the flop than by checking and seeing what the guy does OTT. As for not letting him get a free card, what am I really worried about? That he'll hit a two-outer OTT and land a set? If he bets hard OTT or OTR, I can fold. But I can't if I start building the pot up OTF. If he continues after I bet the flop, I have to shut down. Often that's going to be wrong, and often it is going to be expensive when it isn't.
I know I've had this discussion in other threads, and not many people agree with me.
In any case, I think I did misplay this OTT. I really should have bet out here.
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HAND #22
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Full Tilt Poker, $24 + $2 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 25/50 Blinds, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Wood16 (MP2): 1,214
Hero (CO): 1,712
landocaly (BTN): 1,650
XBELLO (SB): 1,886
fladimiir (BB): 2,123
Tyler AAAA (UTG): 1,360
Mcclaud222 (UTG+1): 1,020
Chouby75 (MP1): 2,535
Pre-Flop: (75) A 9 dealt to Hero (CO)
Tyler AAAA folds, Mcclaud222 calls 50, Chouby75 folds, Wood16 calls 50, Hero raises to 205, 4 folds, Wood16 calls 155
Flop: (535) A 6 4 (2 Players)
Wood16 checks, Hero checks
Turn: (535) 2 (2 Players)
Wood16 checks, Hero checks
River: (535) 2 (2 Players)
Wood16 checks, Hero ???
What now? I assume a value bet is a good idea? How much? |
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Badlydrawnboy Flush
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 Posts: 127
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Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 6:39 pm Post subject: |
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| You see now why you should have tried to win it on the flop (or even on the turn)? You may still have the best hand, but you gave him two free cards. Now you're wondering how big your value bet on the river should be. I would try something like 200 but I expect him to fold anyway. |
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dcdoorknob Royal Flush
Joined: 11 May 2007 Posts: 929 Location: Mississippi
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Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 6:54 pm Post subject: |
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Yeah, I can follow your logic for checking the flop pretty well and don't really dislike it, but checking through to the river with a hand like this really doesn't seem like the best of ideas to me (assuming no metagame against regular opponents is present, which it isn't).
I do think you should value bet this river, 250 sounds good to me. |
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zamkin Pair
Joined: 21 Jan 2007 Posts: 31 Location: Erie, PA
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Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 7:49 pm Post subject: |
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I may just check the river. The villian just has such a high aggression for playing 48% of his hands. He must bluff at least 2/3's of the time, why isnt he trying here after you check flop and turn?
I think you only get called if he is really beating you, or he just folds. Lets see you prove me wrong and take him to value town  |
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nilgiri Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007 Posts: 1376 Location: New Hampshire
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Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 8:54 pm Post subject: |
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Nah, you're right... no call...
I still think v-betting here (after I screw up the turn) is better than checking. He'd call a small enough bet with a PP, for example. And I'm still not convinced about betting the flop.
Anyway, on we go!
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HAND #22
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Pre-Flop: (75) A 9 dealt to Hero (CO)
Tyler AAAA folds, Mcclaud222 calls 50, Chouby75 folds, Wood16 calls 50, Hero raises to 205, 4 folds, Wood16 calls 155
Flop: (535) A 6 4 (2 Players)
Wood16 checks, Hero checks
Turn: (535) 2 (2 Players)
Wood16 checks, Hero checks
River: (535) 2 (2 Players)
Wood16 checks, Hero bets 200, Wood16 folds
Results: 535 Pot
Hero mucked A 9 and WON 535 (+330 NET)
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HAND #23
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Full Tilt Poker, $24 + $2 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 25/50 Blinds, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Wood16 (MP1): 1,009
Hero (MP2): 2,042
landocaly (CO): 1,650
XBELLO (BTN): 1,861
fladimiir (SB): 2,073
Tyler AAAA (BB): 1,360
Mcclaud222 (UTG): 970
Chouby75 (UTG+1): 2,535
Pre-Flop: (75) Q 7 dealt to Hero (MP2)
4 folds, landocaly calls 50, XBELLO folds, fladimiir raises to 100, Tyler AAAA folds, landocaly calls 50
Flop: (250) 8 3 K (2 Players)
fladimiir bets 150, landocaly folds
Results: 250 Pot
fladimiir mucked and WON 250 (+150 NET)
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HAND #24
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Full Tilt Poker, $24 + $2 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 25/50 Blinds, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Wood16 (UTG+1): 1,009
Hero (MP1): 2,042
landocaly (MP2): 1,550
XBELLO (CO): 1,861
fladimiir (BTN): 2,223
Tyler AAAA (SB): 1,310
Mcclaud222 (BB): 970
Chouby75 (UTG): 2,535
Pre-Flop: (75) 3 3 dealt to Hero (MP1)
2 folds, Hero ???
Open shove my premium pocket pair? |
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