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ChokeOnPretzel
High Card
Joined: 18 May 2008
Posts: 7
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 Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 5:35 am Post subject: .10NL fr, preflop: all-in or fold? |
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Full Tilt Poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BB: $6.70
UTG: $15.40
UTG+1: $2.15
UTG+2: $6.10
Hero (MP1): $5.60
MP2: $0.60
CO: $9.65
BTN: $17.75
SB: $4.70
Pre-Flop: T T dealt to Hero (MP1)
UTG calls $0.10, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.10, SB calls $0.05, BB raises to $1, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls $0.90, Hero raises to $5.60 and is All-In, 2 folds, BB raises to $6.70 and is All-In, UTG+2 calls $5.10 and is All-In
Flop: ($18.10) Q 4 5 (3 Players - 1 is All-In)
Turn: ($18.10) 2 (3 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($18.10) 9 (3 Players - 1 is All-In)
BB had a pfr% of 11. UTG+2 appeared to be a calling station.
I figure the BB is raising here with AA-JJ, AK, AQ, maybe even AJ/KQ suited? At such low stakes, is it right to fold here? How would you guys have played the hand differently? Any advice is appreciated. |
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bdbranch
Banned
Joined: 13 Mar 2008
Posts: 503
Location: At home wdyt. Btw. I'm not opinionated all the time, umm can you be opinionated when you're asleep
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| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 9:17 am Post subject: |
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First mistake was your initial call. It should have been a raise. TT is useless postflop with 5 other people (which would have happened if BB didn't raise). From that mistake the hand was trouble.
Can I ask this, why was the initial decision to limp in and then after 2 other players have shown strength you reraise allin? You might possibly be lucky and have been facing overcards or a small chance of a underpair but it's not something I'd bet on. |
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bdbranch
Banned
Joined: 13 Mar 2008
Posts: 503
Location: At home wdyt. Btw. I'm not opinionated all the time, umm can you be opinionated when you're asleep
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| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 9:22 am Post subject: |
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| What I would have done was raise maybe 5-6 bb (varies depending on my mood). And if these people then go allin, I'd know that I shouldn't be in the hand. |
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ChokeOnPretzel
High Card
Joined: 18 May 2008
Posts: 7
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| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 4:53 pm Post subject: |
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I was looking to see a cheap flop and hit a set. Normally I'll raise with tens right off, but with two limpers in front of me (one of them being a calling station) I thought it would be more profitable to go set mining. I didn't put the calling station on much of a hand--I thought he would fold to a reraise.
I've had trouble letting go of tens in the past. If I get reraised by a semi-loose player should I 3bet or fold? I mean if you look at it from a math perspective, there's 24 ways to make JJ-AA, 32 ways to make AK/AQ and another 32 ways to make AJ/KQ. As played, If it's more likely he's raising with overcards, wouldn't it be mathematically correct to go all-in here?
1010 has been a tough hand for me lately. |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 5620
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 5:06 pm Post subject: |
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| ChokeOnPretzel wrote: |
I've had trouble letting go of tens in the past. If I get reraised by a semi-loose player should I 3bet or fold? I mean if you look at it from a math perspective, there's 24 ways to make JJ-AA, 32 ways to make AK/AQ and another 32 ways to make AJ/KQ. As played, If it's more likely he's raising with overcards, wouldn't it be mathematically correct to go all-in here?
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No, because when he has overcards, you're coin-flipping, and when he has a higher pair you're crushed. This is a common mistake, people think "I probably have the best hand here", but they forget to consider by how much they have the best hand. TT is only 56% to win against two overcards, and that's just not enough to make up for how far behind you are when he does have a higher pair. |
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bdbranch
Banned
Joined: 13 Mar 2008
Posts: 503
Location: At home wdyt. Btw. I'm not opinionated all the time, umm can you be opinionated when you're asleep
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| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 5:12 pm Post subject: |
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| HuJwang's answer is pretty standard. Two extra things. 1 : A person is much more likely to go allin with JJ then KQ and 2 : Even a calling station can have a great hand. |
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Flying_Kiwi
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 5383
Location: Popping bubbles
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| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 5:20 pm Post subject: |
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| ChokeOnPretzel wrote: |
| I was looking to see a cheap flop and hit a set. Normally I'll raise with tens right off, but with two limpers in front of me (one of them being a calling station) I thought it would be more profitable to go set mining. |
First, reload before the hand if possible because with set mining you want maximum implied odds.
You're still better off raising PF. With two limpers, you should be making it 5-6BBs. In these spots it can be good to build up the pot so if you do hit your set, there will already be a pot to play for. If you hit your set and say there's already $1-2 in the pot, it will make it much easier to get people invovled in the hand and get paid off. This also applies to a baby flop where you have an overpair to the flop.
As played, I probably fold PF.
Last edited by Flying_Kiwi on Sun May 18, 2008 5:25 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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ChokeOnPretzel
High Card
Joined: 18 May 2008
Posts: 7
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| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 5:25 pm Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| ChokeOnPretzel wrote: |
I've had trouble letting go of tens in the past. If I get reraised by a semi-loose player should I 3bet or fold? I mean if you look at it from a math perspective, there's 24 ways to make JJ-AA, 32 ways to make AK/AQ and another 32 ways to make AJ/KQ. As played, If it's more likely he's raising with overcards, wouldn't it be mathematically correct to go all-in here?
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No, because when he has overcards, you're coin-flipping, and when he has a higher pair you're crushed. This is a common mistake, people think "I probably have the best hand here", but they forget to consider by how much they have the best hand. TT is only 56% to win against two overcards, and that's just not enough to make up for how far behind you are when he does have a higher pair. |
I considered that actually, but please correct me if my math is wrong. 
65% chance of overcards (win percentage of 55) = 36% odds
35% chance of overpair (win percentage of 20) = 7% odds
= 43% odds total
So if I'm getting greater than 43% pot odds it's a profitable situation, right? Since we know UTG+2 eventually made the call, I'm most likely not getting the odds here. But I thought he would fold, and if my math is right it has to be correct against one semi-loose opponent. |
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bdbranch
Banned
Joined: 13 Mar 2008
Posts: 503
Location: At home wdyt. Btw. I'm not opinionated all the time, umm can you be opinionated when you're asleep
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| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 5:55 pm Post subject: |
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| ChokeOnPretzel wrote: |
I considered that actually, but please correct me if my math is wrong.
65% chance of overcards (win percentage of 55) = 36% odds
35% chance of overpair (win percentage of 20) = 7% odds
= 43% odds total
So if I'm getting greater than 43% pot odds it's a profitable situation, right? Since we know UTG+2 eventually made the call, I'm most likely not getting the odds here. But I thought he would fold, and if my math is right it has to be correct against one semi-loose opponent. |
I think you can cut out QJ, KJ etc. Also the reraise is much more likely with a pocket pair. These things destroys your attempted math. |
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drtre1987
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 1866
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| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 6:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Your math is right, but you are not getting called by all of the overcard combos. So when you get your extra $4 in the pot, it is only getting called from an even tighter range (maybe JJ+ and AK/AQ). So against that range you are getting the worst of it. |
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ChokeOnPretzel
High Card
Joined: 18 May 2008
Posts: 7
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| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 8:22 pm Post subject: |
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Against a tighter range of hands,
55% chance of overcards (AK, AQ; win percentage of 55) = 30% odds
45% chance of overpair (JJ+; win percentage of 20) = 9% odds
= 39% pot odds
Assuming the BB calls my reraise 100% of the time with these holdings and UTG+2 folds, the actual pot odds should look something like this:
($5.50+$2.40)/$5.50
= 1.44-to-1
= 41% pot odds
It's barely a positive play if my math is right and the hand unfolds in the way in which I'm hoping it will. Above all I can't be sure that the calling station will fold here. Again, any further advice and/or corrections are appreciated. |
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ChokeOnPretzel
High Card
Joined: 18 May 2008
Posts: 7
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| Posted: Mon May 19, 2008 6:07 pm Post subject: |
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Results: $18.10 Pot ($1.80 Rake)
BB showed K K (a pair of Kings) and LOST (-$6.10 NET)
UTG+2 showed Q 9 (two pair, Queens and Nines) and WON $16.30 (+$10.20 NET)
Hero showed T T (a pair of Tens) and LOST (-$5.60 NET) |
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