Online Poker Forum at Full Tilt Poker

feihua · Posted: Wed May 21, 2008 5:30 am Post subject:

4118 entries

FTP Forum additions (23 entries):

shadoe3
maniladog
doctordr2

I gotta say that this year's lineup strikes me as the oddest. Gabe Kaplan was nixed despite the great HORSE showing. Dwan didn't get any respect despite NBC picking him for the HU Championship.

I think if Full Tilt can change the set up for the 25K HU so close to the start of the event, there should be some reconsideration to have a few additions to the Fantasy Poker choices.

Not that I would pick Kaplan rather than I would pick Dwan.

Natch.

feihua · Posted: Wed May 21, 2008 6:02 am Post subject:

feihua · Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 8:42 am Post subject:

Anyone notice the tie-breaker has been forgotten?

It is listed in the rules. But there is no field for an entry.

Speaking on entries, just over 4809 have entered and the honorable iiznoodles-san, joe_king-san and pete d-san have joined the FTP Forum league.

Fantasy Poker news from 2+2 has one Eugene Todd announcing a 10k Fantasy Poker draft to be held on the 29th in Vegas.

How about we starting the same thing but divided by a thousand.............and we can leave out the ME to make the payoff truly enjoyable?

This concept that the overall winner of Fantasy Poker is not going to be announced for quite some time is anxious in my mind.

mzbuns · Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 9:43 am Post subject:

Wasn't there a site that listed the players entered before the event? Pokerwire maybe?

feihua · Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 10:53 am Post subject:

dawuifae · Message Board Junkie Joined: 18 Oct 2007 Posts: 1200

AP KING · Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 2:44 pm Post subject:

mzbuns · Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 8:33 pm Post subject:

Mrlova · Two Pair Joined: 08 Aug 2006 Posts: 68

wow, is it just me or did fulltilt leave out a lot of good players this year.

Maybe I'm wrong but is Tom "Durrrr" Dwan not on the list?

feihua · Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 11:22 pm Post subject:

AP, Mzbuns,

My overall score was not that great last year because I didn't go with the Hellmuth bracelet. But I did get a lot of hats and a very good number of freeroll entries.

On the freeroll entries, I think this year is going to be quite easier as the eligibility number has been doubled. Three dark horse picks in the B and C positions should work.

On the hat and jersey races, it's a different game than last year. As I mentioned above, the A list pros have become more serious about the tournaments as the talk about bankrolls drying up is very prevalent. The big jump in the 10K events is also going to make choosing these names much wiser than it was last year.

Last year, I scored a hat in the opening event mainly because I was lucky to pick specialty names for the event with low pcts on the board. For some reason, I ditched my quinela pick thinking half would be a no show and knocked myself off the jersey, but the keeper was such a low pct he got me a hat.

The second score in the third event came about I think because the entries were still picking A list pros for a 1K event, and I bet the board with young winners from the season before that held no better than 0.5% on the board.

The third and fifth hats came because I noticed that Thor Hansen was running hot and definitely looked like he was having a good time to play more events. Again, I went with low pct choices on the board and combined that with those on hot streaks that were available. Tom Schneider and Alex Kravchenko were obvious choices, and no doubt they would have garnered less than 1.8% on the board had they been available, but they were not given consideration as possible choices by Full Tilt.

It is very strange that Kravchenko is still not listed for this year's lineup after such a strong finish in the ME whereas Kirill Gerasimov, who did so well in 2006 but nothing in 2007, remains on the list.

Those who were hot stayed hot. Yet, those who were hot before the WSOP (except for K Morrison) did not do well in the WSOP, so I am skeptical about hot streaks from Jan and Feb petering out during March and April.

The fourth hat was a specialty pick that I was very surprised to get so little action when he was the obvious favorite, and I would like to mention this guy but he is such a tap in I hate to spoil my odds for a repeat in the same event. That said, it is not such a secret at all because the proper research for each event points strongly in his direction.

Over half of the choices should be in the 0.5% to 2% region with strong emphasis on the low buy in events, just like a horse race. Study the fields early using as many tournament reporters as possible to get a feel on how many tournaments the players are averaging. Not all of the tournament reporters are that reliable, if any. In the 2006 ME, I had John Hoang who was doing quite respectably, and Cardplayer refused to list him for the middle portion of the event. He was doing strong and then disappeared off the boards. Yet on the second to the final day, he reappeared. Pokernews was horrible with their reporting last year, but seems to have gotten their act together since then. If your dark horses are not appearing, be patient. The Pokerwire blogs last year gave out a lot on info on intentions and results that were getting missed by the tournament reporters, so it would be a good idea to searching out active bloggers now.

Currently, the Hendon Mob database appears to give the best written information on past tournaments if you follow the links correctly, and is a great source for European information. I think 2+2 gives good audio information for clues on the matter of A list pro's interest in the side cash games versus tournament interest. For example, last year's Eli Elezra/Phil Ivey prop bet for a bracelet win definitely through Eli back into a solid choice when it was a good year to pick any except the A list pros.

The WSOP database is a good source to check the availability of the players in the early events. It was a hard fix to judge when the Europeans would show up last year as the increase in events made it difficult to judge how much they wanted to spend on staying in Vegas for an extended length of time. Because the Europeans are so strong in PLO events, the early events were difficult to determine if I was getting in enough possible entrants on my team. If you have the time, I suggest using the WSOP database to come up with a good conclusion on check in check out dates for possible choices.

I believe Bluff and PokerRoad have reached an agreement for WSOP coverage this year and I am going to stick with Big Poker Sundays as being possibly the best source of info for making adjustments as Bob Voulgaris' experience with basketball betting carries the right mindset for data mining good Fantasy Poker choices.

Also, as soon as possible, follow the Fantasy Poker winners closely and try to pick up information from their choices. Rarely do the winners score because of luck. They are very methodical to know that putting Chris Ferguson or Allen Cunningham on a C list is unwise unless it is to pad a very strong lineup of 0.0% to 0.5% choices in the A lineup.

Back on the 10K events, these are going to be the most interesting to follow and should give a lot of information on how to make choices for the rest of the Series because while the fields are going to be tremendously reduced in comparison to previous years, it will also give information on the lesser known names as to whether 10K fits into their bankroll as opposed to the 5K events. An example of such info that has already come out on 2+2 is that Dwan is definitely going to be in the opening event. This would be a very strong choice against the A list pros had Full Tilt included Dwan among the choices. However, despite his absence, this gives strong info that if he has the right confidence for such a buy in against a strong group of A listers, then betting on some other relatively new players would be a wise move.

In fact, in the recent game gone and I had with Sebok, I fished for some info on the opening event having already made my choices, and telling Sebok I put him on my B team. He blurted out my dark horse A list player as the best pick. What the A and B level pros say about the 21 and 22 year olds gives a lot of good information on the new players abilities to run deep and if these can be combined with low pcts on the board, it's the easiest shot at gaining a freeroll entry if not a hat.

Jerseys? It takes a lot of luck and a need to be absolutely on top on registrations. But I have seen a guy take down two jerseys in a single year when only the top ten scored hats, so picking choices is definitely more than just numbers on a keno card.

Basically, the board has to be approached like a horse race and the advantage is to play against the field. This year Full Tilt has added a skew by putting so many rather nominal red name pros into the choices. It is like trying to choose competing horses from the same stable, and that is not easy.

So, research and lots of research is key. Items like Vinnie Vinh and Eskimo Clark with health issues at last year's Series were good for scratches. Sammy Farha and Brian Townsend getting caught up in the side game was good for scratches.

Advice?

Make sure you have a lot of time over the next two months to stay on top of the trends. For me? I have fun with this. It does take a lot of time, maybe three to four hours aggregate over a day, every day, for eight weeks, and admittedly, that IS kind of silly. BUT the payoff was huge for me in more than just hats and I gotta say: gonefshing and I were complete strangers last year when I sent a PM to him and gave him some advice, as clussman and strasse basically were. And I, as they did, did quite handsomely in terms of real money when it was all over. And I don't think they would agree it is that silly, so perhaps I am wrong. It is up to y'all how much you want to put into it.

If you want time to fly by, by all means bury yourself in stats because July will be here as if it was tomorrow. Better to get started with only one week to go than to play catch up as last year started with 5000 entries and ballooned to almost 30K in entries at the end.

This morning's entry count is 5225. That is a one thousand increase from last night, and double the opening weekend. New FTP Forum league members are 08dave-san, fireandfold-san and mrlova-san bringing the FTP Forum league to 29 entries.

Good luck, all. I hope that I have given the proper amount of misinformation.

Wink

Hey, what can I say? We finally have an overall prize up for grabs.

Watch for an update on that tie-breaker. Folks really played it poorly last year and it really comes in as an important item on the hat counts. If Blast discovers their mistake of not programming it and making the fix before next Friday, it will be important to go back and make adjustments on the first events.

mzbuns · Posted: Fri May 23, 2008 12:57 am Post subject:

Thanks feihua!! That was super of you to take the time to give us all that info. In the past, I haven't spent a ton of time going through each event and changing picks as the events unfolded. Guess I'm too lazy. I picked my AB&C teams and stuck with them throughout with the exception of a few events. Even if I change my strategy with the lower buyin events based on newcomer (so to speak) bankrolls, that's a huge tip you gave me. It seems obvious but I wasn't thinking along those lines. The tie-breaker was a bust for me for sure........did that all wrong Rolling Eyes

thanks again for your help!
Buns

mzbuns · Posted: Sat May 24, 2008 7:35 pm Post subject:

BUMP!! No comments on upcoming WSOP Fantasy Poker Event? All you guys trolling the forum and entering the events must have an opinion?

feihua · Posted: Sat May 24, 2008 9:48 pm Post subject:

I am curious about the axing that has taken place. No Darrel Dicken. Mizzi is gone, a bit understandably, but it appears more personal than reasonable.

Today's entry count should be above last year's start, with six days to go. Survey says:

6280 entrants

Apparently, the missing tie breaker question is not going to be corrected, so, this year, here is how the ties will be handled:

feihua · Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 11:00 pm Post subject:

Current entry total: 7362

Current FTP Forum league roster: 36

skeeter1114
kronx
ap king
feihua
dcdoorknob
bbcoach44
g_420man
mzbuns
etothemc2
dc11ge
peoplepod
fire_eyes_2k
st6truckie
craigo6x
nightprince
kyblue007
chillbot
sfbuc
pikeamus
shadoe3
maniladog
doctordr2
iiznoodles
joe_king
pete d
08dave
fireandfold
mrlova
jgar36
lucky_bub
jdizzzle72
canlis
critterbugg
zophar
tc7777
gonefshng

Again, most FAQ is how can one tell who has registered for which events?

Ask Honest Rob.

Otherwise, I don't think you can tell the players even with a scorecard. Eli Elezra apparently signed with Full Tilt ten days ago but has failed to show up in red. On the other hand, Joe Sebok appears in red as a Full Tilt member, but this is news to Seebs.

Layne Flack has a 1.2% A listing, but apparently he will be in Manila for the Asian Poker Tour along with the Jetts.

Bellande said no to Survivor for this WSOP season.

Shouldn't FTP Forum have some sort of pool for this thang? Maybe $5 or $10 each with top three finishes and plus/minus ME results?

gonefshng · Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 12:06 pm Post subject:

AIGHT, give me some elbow room.

I have kicked off the new season today for myself. I hadn't looked at anything till last night.

The biggest news so far is the ME final table will be held with a 3 month delay. Are we to have a 3 month delay, to finalize league........pffffft

A $10,000 buyin 1st event is a big change. Last year the horse event was the only thing that really mattered for overall money other than, the ME.

I'd be down for $5.

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