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Online Poker Forum - Count the outs

 
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Pacey Witter
Two Pair


Joined: 18 Jul 2005
Posts: 69

PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2005 11:25 pm    Post subject: Count the outs Reply with quote

this site is pissin me off, just got knocked out (5th place) in a $11 s&g. was 2nd shortest stack (around 2000) with 5 people left, held A9 utg, i raised, bb only caller. flop comes 10-j-k, all spades as was my ace. So i have nut flush & nut straight draw. i bet the pot (780) leaving me around 700 chips, my idiot opponent reraised me all in, so i called & he shows 10-9 of hearts for bottom f'n pair!! NOW COUNT MY OUTS- any of the 9 spades, the 3 queens which arent q of spades & any of the other 3 aces- for a total of 15 outs & an approx chance of 60% to win, but ofcourse the turn & the river bring no help & i get busted out. I played 15 s&g's today & only cashed in 3 of them, 3rd place in all 3. My bankroll has gone from $292 yesterday after 2 cashes in the morning, to $160 tonight & all ive been playing are $11 & $5.50 s&g's. If this run of crap continues tomorrow i may just give up for good.
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dead n drawin
Two Pair


Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 52
Location: Ottawa, Canada

PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 3:33 am    Post subject: ....and? Reply with quote

ok?? a 60% chance to hit isn't 100%...not sure what you're mad about. Maybe they should create a different category in this forum...one where ppl can cry about how much they suck.
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bootywafer
Full House


Joined: 26 Jul 2005
Posts: 173
Location: Atlanta GA

PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 8:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

play the $30 or the $20's.You get less "bad" calls.Trust me!!! The 5 and 10 tables are like walking a tight rope...crazy calls with low pairs or a crazy inside straight draw that always hit.The higher tables are more skilled than the low and less of the all in craze that the low players tend to follow.'
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GTKID
Four of a Kind


Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 305
Location: Waxahachie, Tx

PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 10:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes... more skill is easier to beat and more profitable... Draws always hit... does anyone read this? Poker has a high variance. 60% doesn't mean anything, just that you will win more then you lose. Not that your guaranteed to hit your hand everytime cause your a favorite. I'm not saying higher sng's aren't profitable too. But to say bad play is the reason you can't win is very unlikely. If you can't beat the bad players you can't beat the good ones. If your goal is to see aces hold up, find tight games. If your goal is to make money though...
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dead n drawin
Two Pair


Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 52
Location: Ottawa, Canada

PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 1:37 pm    Post subject: yep Reply with quote

he's absolutely right. the professionals love a table full of fish at a casino am i not right? good players can beat bad players, in fact they require bad players to make a living. Playing **** players is not an excuse to lose. so if u can't consistently be finishing in the money in low buy-in sit n gos, dont start playing the more expensive ones....considering all of your other posts in this forum it seems like you believe you always DESERVE to win - that might be something you want to change.
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Pacey Witter
Two Pair


Joined: 18 Jul 2005
Posts: 69

PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 3:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i never feel like i deserve to win, but to be honest ive had much more success at $11 s&g than the $5.50. i know good players must be able to beat bad players but when u make the correct move & a bad player calls u down to the river than catches a miracle, whats that? a bad beat, not anything u can do differently right!! I just think as the stakes go up in the s&g's u get less people who will call down chasing one out. There are those people who play better against better competition and i think i fit into that category. I tend to focus more & play better when the competition is better.
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Rufus J Simpson
High Card


Joined: 16 Aug 2005
Posts: 4

PostPosted: Tue Aug 16, 2005 2:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A buddy of mine has been complaining about bad beats. I have talked with him on some of things I have learned. The truth is there is absolutly no way to avoid all bad beats but you can minimalize them. What amazes me the most about SnGs is about half the poeple playing in the 5.50 range are straight up gamblers. They will risk the whole tourney on one big pot. I guess its the thrill of hitting thier cards. In talking with my bud I realized that he hates to fold. He believes its a sign of weakness to fold. I'm not sure what everyone else's opinion is on folding but my opinion is that folding is a crucial part to poker and even more in tournement poker. Folding a marginal hand to avoid being drawn out is a smart play in SnGs. If you are complaining about being drawn out by straights and flushes then the best your hand can be is 3 of a kind. Though 3 of a kind is strong it is very beatable.

Maybe you need to review your hole card selection by position. Some positions will play draws better than others. By understanding which position is likely to be playing suits or connectors you can make better judgements.

I appologize if this was long. My opinions are always open to suggestion.
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PlayingTheBoard
Full House


Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 241
Location: Nashville, TN

PostPosted: Tue Aug 16, 2005 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you cashed in 3 of 15 SnG's, and finished no higher than 3rd, I would venture to say that you didn't take a bad beat or get sucked out on in every one of them. It's easy to blame the bad beats and bad players, but it does nothing to strengthen your game. Instead of complaining about things that can't, and won't, change, perhaps post some critical decisions that you made and ask if other people would play the hand differently. Be open to other ideas and criticism of your play--it doesn't mean that anyone with a different approach on a given hand is automatically correct, but it just gives you some other things to think about, and some different strategies to consider.

Just my $0.02.
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Lepoppet
Straight Flush


Joined: 10 Jul 2005
Posts: 359

PostPosted: Tue Aug 16, 2005 2:41 pm    Post subject: Re: Reply with quote

Rufus J Simpson wrote:
Folding a marginal hand to avoid being drawn out is a smart play in SnGs.


I'm so glad to hear a "High Card" make this statement. I've only been playing for 2 months now and I've drilled it into my brain that folding a marginal hand is just as good as winning a pot. I would say that I'm thrilled with about 80% of my folds as they would have lost in the end.

If you read all the books from the pro's, they can't stress enough about the importance of being able to read the texture of the board, then figuring out what your opponent has, and folding if your hand is beat.

I realize that conventional visual tells aren't there online, but you can figure out a lot by someone's betting patterns. I guess there's a statement of truth about the old adage: A penny saved is a penny earned."

M
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UrbanMeyer1
Royal Flush


Joined: 25 Jun 2005
Posts: 720
Location: Gainesville, FL (The Swamp)

PostPosted: Tue Aug 16, 2005 7:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good responses all around...

1) You want to get your money in with the best hand, stop thinking the 100s would be easier than the 5.50s to beat because your not going to take as many bad beats. You lose more advantages as you move up in level. I guarantee they are not easy.

2) A 60% favorite is not a bad beat.

3) Variance is a ****. I have had long streaks of 60/40s & coinflips & I've even had 2 groups of 80/20s that I have lost 3 in a row in each, yet I'm beating the game at about a 21% clip right now. It happens

4) Don't play if you are worried about busting your bankroll, there is always a risk of ruin. You can only try and minimize it by playing with a buy-in level that fits your bankroll(30x buy-in rule).

5) Post more of your HH, not just one, I'm sure we can all help you discover some leaks in your game. I am still up for tutoring anyone who wants. I do read entire SNG HHs and point out everything I can help you with.

6) Everyone needs to stop posting results oriented HHs, that doesn't help anyone, you get bias responses and it doesn't help. Post the hands without results from the actual HH and you will get a number of balanced and good opinions. You can always post the results later.
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Pacey Witter
Two Pair


Joined: 18 Jul 2005
Posts: 69

PostPosted: Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

thanks for all the responses, this post was a while ago when i was on tilt & have learned a lot since.
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_Xceptional
Royal Flush


Joined: 20 Aug 2005
Posts: 559
Location: Sacramento, CA

PostPosted: Sat Aug 20, 2005 11:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why are you raising UTG with A9? It's a horrible hand. If you're UTG, the 1st man to act pre flop, you need AA, KK, QQ, AK suited, and that's about it to raise. I mean, look at your position...to raise UTG requires an extremely strong starting, nothing less than a catagory 1 or A. I wouldn't even consider limping in with that hand.
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TBKnbaNYC
High Card


Joined: 21 Aug 2005
Posts: 2
Location: NYC

PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2005 3:32 am    Post subject: You are 56.1%... not 60%... so you basically threw money in with a coin flip. Reply with quote

You are 56.1%... not 60%... so you basically threw money in with a coin flip. Why would you bet pot if you are on a draw? If you are "bluffing" with pot bets... you must win like 5 of 6 of them long term for you to profit. Try to bet 40-50% of pot and then you only have to win 1 of 3 long term. Wait to make your hand... then put your money in.
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Ebbs
High Card


Joined: 22 Aug 2005
Posts: 1
Location: Philly

PostPosted: Mon Aug 22, 2005 12:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I never risk all my chips on a draw regardless of how many chips i put into the pot. You never know the outcome of a draw, but if you have any pair with a draw, you at least have the ability to win the hand even if you miss your draw. Play as tight as possible.
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KGBlovesOreos
Moderator


Joined: 28 Jun 2005
Posts: 5318
Location: VA

PostPosted: Tue Aug 23, 2005 9:04 am    Post subject: dont be so mad... Reply with quote

you SHOULD win 60 percent of the time, but that means you WILL lose 40 percent of the time... get over it, you didnt have a made hand, just Ace high...
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