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jameric4
Two Pair
Joined: 03 Apr 2008
Posts: 55
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 Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 10:34 am Post subject: variance |
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I've always thought of variance as the amount your bankroll varies from it's long term expected profit/loss line.
For example: You played the exact same way for 1,000,000 hands and found that you won 4BB for every 100 hands played. You sit down to play a session of 1,000 hands and find you have only won 10BB or 1BB for every 100 hands, playing the exact same way.
The reason you did not win your expected 4BB per 100 hands was due to suckouts, bad run of cards, bad luck, etc. This will likely be offset at sometime in the future where you will win more than your expected 4BB per 100 hands and bring your bankroll back up to or, temporarily, even over you expected profit/loss line.
Is this the correct way to describe variance? |
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drtre1987
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2016
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| Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 10:46 am Post subject: |
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| Yes |
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californiachamp
Banned
Joined: 05 Jul 2006
Posts: 394
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| Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 1:09 pm Post subject: .. |
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It is more complicated than what you said, you won't be playing the same way overtime, you will have different types of opponents, different situations, many different variables, essentially variance comes down to LUCK...
how much luck occurs in your direction versus when luck does not go your way and considering luck plays a big part in certain situations, that is the variable that is variance........
But in a nutshell, how you described it is more in general but accurate. |
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