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| Total Votes : 8 |
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Mstr Charles
Two Pair
Joined: 08 Jun 2007
Posts: 55
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 Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 3:36 pm Post subject: 9 person turbo sngs – by the numbers |
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9 person turbo sngs – by the numbers
Hey all,
I’ve gotten more serious about the 9 person sit-and-goes and wanted to figure out what you actually had to do to be profitable. I thought I would share some of the interesting finds.
Everything below derives from the numbers for the turbo games. These games should have a higher “chance” factor than the non-turbo games, but have a lower fee/buy-in ratio. Hence, anyone calculating the same thing for non-turbo games would find that you needed to perform better on average in the non-turbo sngs:
First, no matter what the buy-in, the payout scheme stays in the same proportion:
1st place = 4.5* the buyin
2nd place = 2.7
3rd place = 1.8
However, if you’re trying to make money, you need to include the fee. Then:
1st place = 4.125* the buyin
2nd place = 2.475
3rd place = 1.65
Second, if you do exactly as expected by chance then:
Out of 9 games you get
Place.... # times......Winnings....After Fees
1st .............1................4.5..........4.125
2nd.............1............. 2.7....... 2.475
3rd............. 1............. 1.8....... 1.65
Other....... 6............. 0............. 0
Total....... 9................ 9............. 8.25
Net Profit = 8.25 - 9 = -.75
So, if you perform at chance you lose .75 buy-ins every nine games. If you play 22+2 sngs, you lose $18.
Third, not all performances higher than chance help:
You are in the exact same situation if you get 3rd 5 out of 9 times, or 1st 2 out of 9 times:
Out of 9 games you get
Place.... # times.......Winnings....After Fees
1st............. 0..................0............. 0
2nd.............0............. 0............. 0
3rd............. 5............. 9............. 0
Other....... 4............. 0............. 0
Total....... 9................9.............8.25
Net Profit = 8.25 - 9 = -.75
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Place.... # times.......Winnings....After Fees
1st............. 2................ 9..........8.25
2nd.............0............. 0...........0
3rd............. 0............. 0...........0
Other....... 7............. 0.............0
Total....... 9................ 9....... 8.25
Net Profit = 8.25 - 9 = -.75
Fourth, even some profitable situations are not so good. Let’s assume I do well, say out of 9 games I get 1st once, 2nd twice, and 3rd once:
Place.... # times.......Winnings....After Fees
1st............. 1.................4.5..........4.125
2nd.............2............. 2.7..........2.475
3rd............. 1............. 1.8..........1.65
Other....... 5............. 0............. 0
Total..........9.......13.5....... 12.375
Net Profit = 10.725 - 9 = +1.725
At 22 + 2 sngs, this means that I make $62.1 over the course of 9 games. If each game takes, on average 45 minutes (longer when I get 1st, shorter when I bust out early), I spend 6 hours 45 minutes playing. This gives me a rate of $9.2 per hour. Not terrible, but not great when you consider that I am risking $216 to do it, and that this means that there will be many 9 hour stretches when I’m not profitable.
Fifth, this means you must do MUCH better than chance to have any shot at an hourly wage. Particularly, you must get 1st place at a level higher than chance. If, instead of an extra second place, you got an extra 1st place:
Place.... # times.......Winnings....After Fees
1st............. 2............... 9.............8.25
2nd.............1............. 2.7....... 2.475
3rd............. 1............. 1.8....... 1.65
Other....... 5............. 0............. 0
Total....... 9..............13.5....... 12.375
Net Profit = 12.375 - 9 = +4.5
At 22 + 2 sngs, this means that I make $121.5 over the course of 9 games. Because I got an extra 1st instead of an extra 2nd, my profit over 9 games doubled! This gives me a rate of $18 per hour.
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There, that’s what I’ve got so far. I’m sure similar things have been posted here before, but I hope someone finds it interesting. |
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bdbranch
Banned
Joined: 13 Mar 2008
Posts: 503
Location: At home wdyt. Btw. I'm not opinionated all the time, umm can you be opinionated when you're asleep
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| Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 2:55 am Post subject: |
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Yes it is a good attempt & compliments for the attempt, no it's not useful.
Firstly, before we talk about the error in your calculation, the problem with the calculation in general is that you have to go through a complicated process each time you play a different SNG. That's because the rake to buyin ratio's are different (ps FT's rake is excessive compared to other sites).
You mention a $22 buyin + $2 rake. FT buyin of $1 attracts a rake of 25c. This throws out any calculation. In general, it's far easier to just add the sites rake to the buyin amount.
BTW, $22 + $2 rake was the example you used.
9 games x $2 rake is $18
buyin is $22. 18 / 22 = 81.8% of the buyin. You added the $2 in that calculation (18 / 24 = 75%) |
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Mstr Charles
Two Pair
Joined: 08 Jun 2007
Posts: 55
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| Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 4:11 pm Post subject: |
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Ok, admitted, this does not apply to the $1 tourneys... and admitted that I posted on the full-tilt forum a post that applies to full tilt games.
Special note: If your doing the $1... and thus paying a quarter of the buyin in rake... you need to do VERY well to overcome that. I would say, if you can't afford at least the $2 games, you shouldn't be playing with the intention of winning money due to that big problem. |
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bdbranch
Banned
Joined: 13 Mar 2008
Posts: 503
Location: At home wdyt. Btw. I'm not opinionated all the time, umm can you be opinionated when you're asleep
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| Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 10:40 pm Post subject: |
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| Mstr Charles wrote: |
Ok, admitted, this does not apply to the $1 tourneys... and admitted that I posted on the full-tilt forum a post that applies to full tilt games.
Special note: If your doing the $1... and thus paying a quarter of the buyin in rake... you need to do VERY well to overcome that. I would say, if you can't afford at least the $2 games, you shouldn't be playing with the intention of winning money due to that big problem. |
Yeah, well FT's rake is excessive as well as varies in percentage at different levels. Don't think that the fact that I didn't view this calculation as being user friendly as impling that I don't support such calculations. I hope that you continue to make efforts in calculations of this kind (or in different areas if you wish). |
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KerryLynn
High Card
Joined: 18 May 2008
Posts: 2
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| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 3:28 am Post subject: CAlculations Helpful |
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I found the calculations and the explination of the rake amounts very hepful and I appreciate you going through the trouble of posting it. I guess it is a good thing that I play as a hobby and not with the intention of making a profit. Although I do prefer the 9 man s&g's, both for the shorter playing time and the increased odds of actuallly placing in the money, with your calculations in mind, do you believe the multi table s&g's would be more or less profitable? (Assuming a lower ratio of wins to losses of course)  |
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KAIO-T-M-M
High Card
Joined: 18 May 2008
Posts: 2
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| Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 1:18 am Post subject: |
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| can anyone tell me how do you sign up for a rake back scheme? the account I play on is also used by 3 people iin total. so its always played around the clock. i thought that getting on a rack back scheme could help with the bankroll. if theat what it does. how does the rake bback schemes work also. any advice would be appreciated. thanku kindly to all who may help with this deleaamor. |
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mgodd
Royal Flush
Joined: 31 Dec 2007
Posts: 615
Location: North Carolina
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| Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 1:55 am Post subject: |
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Mstr Charles
Two Pair
Joined: 08 Jun 2007
Posts: 55
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| Posted: Fri May 23, 2008 2:04 pm Post subject: Re: CAlculations Helpful |
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| KerryLynn wrote: |
| I found the calculations and the explination of the rake amounts very hepful and I appreciate you going through the trouble of posting it. I guess it is a good thing that I play as a hobby and not with the intention of making a profit. Although I do prefer the 9 man s&g's, both for the shorter playing time and the increased odds of actuallly placing in the money, with your calculations in mind, do you believe the multi table s&g's would be more or less profitable? (Assuming a lower ratio of wins to losses of course) |
More or less profitable.... well depends on what you're good at. I can tell you for sure that the larger the tourney, the more important it is to finish 1st or 2nd almost anytime you get in the money. If you think closing in on 1st is one of your strengths, you might do better in the long run in the bigger tourneys.
Remember, if you go from 45 people to 6 and lose, you double your money. It's much easier to go from 9 to 3 for the basically the same reward. Think of it this way, can you get 6th out of 45 half the time... probably not. Could you get from 9 to 3 half the time... with practice, probably. Hence, if your better at barely making the money, but sometimes make it to 1st, you should probably stick with the 9 player ones.
Right now I'm trying the 18 person games, I think they have a good balance on the above points.
Good luck! |
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Mstr Charles
Two Pair
Joined: 08 Jun 2007
Posts: 55
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| Posted: Fri May 23, 2008 2:06 pm Post subject: only one player to an account |
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| KAIO-T-M-M wrote: |
| can anyone tell me how do you sign up for a rake back scheme? the account I play on is also used by 3 people iin total. so its always played around the clock. i thought that getting on a rack back scheme could help with the bankroll. if theat what it does. how does the rake bback schemes work also. any advice would be appreciated. thanku kindly to all who may help with this deleaamor. |
Uhm... first off you likely cannot get rakeback if you are already signed up. Second off, having more than one person play an account is not allowed. |
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ynkpnt
Royal Flush
Joined: 15 Mar 2008
Posts: 574
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| Posted: Fri May 23, 2008 11:01 pm Post subject: |
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| KAIO-T-M-M wrote: |
| can anyone tell me how do you sign up for a rake back scheme? the account I play on is also used by 3 people iin total. so its always played around the clock. i thought that getting on a rack back scheme could help with the bankroll. if theat what it does. how does the rake bback schemes work also. any advice would be appreciated. thanku kindly to all who may help with this deleaamor. |
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