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Badlydrawnboy
Flush
Joined: 28 Jan 2008
Posts: 127
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 Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 9:55 pm Post subject: |
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| I fold the J5sas well. We have enough time to catch a better hand. |
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Flying_Kiwi
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 6014
Location: Centre of the Universe
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| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 10:12 pm Post subject: |
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| Fold |
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goomlah
Royal Flush
Joined: 08 Sep 2005
Posts: 561
Location: Chicago
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 9:34 pm Post subject: |
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| limp and let's see if he pushes. |
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dcdoorknob
Royal Flush
Joined: 11 May 2007
Posts: 983
Location: Mississippi
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 2:05 am Post subject: |
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I got a little ahead of myself here I think, and pushed. Maybe it was impatience from folding my last 2 SBs, which I don't like to do with blinds this high. That said, is his calling range wide enough to make this a -EV shove? I'm not convinced.
Hand #68
Full Tilt Poker $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t250/t500 Blinds - 2 players
The Official Hand History
dcdoorknob (BTN/SB): t9219
Brian (BB): t4281
Pre Flop: dcdoorknob is BTN/SB with J  5
dcdoorknob raises to t9219 all in, 1 fold
Final Pot: t1000
dcdoorknob wins t1000
Hand #69
Full Tilt Poker $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t250/t500 Blinds - 2 players
The Official Hand History
dcdoorknob (BB): t9719
Brian (BTN/SB): t3781
Pre Flop: dcdoorknob is BB with T  5 
Brian calls t250, dcdoorknob checks
Flop: (t1000) K 6 7 (2 players)
dcdoorknob checks, Brian bets t1000, dcdoorknob folds
Final Pot: t1000
Brian wins t1000
Hand #70
Full Tilt Poker $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds - 2 players
The Official Hand History
dcdoorknob (BTN/SB): t9219
Brian (BB): t4281
Pre Flop: dcdoorknob is BTN/SB with 2 3
1 fold
Final Pot: t600
Brian wins t600
Hand #71
Full Tilt Poker $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds - 2 players
The Official Hand History
dcdoorknob (BB): t8919
Brian (BTN/SB): t4581
Pre Flop: dcdoorknob is BB with J 9
Brian calls t300, dcdoorknob ???
Ok, so now he's clearly limping with some marginal hands instead of folding or raising even with only 7 or 8 bb. What is the course of action here? |
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nilgiri
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 1514
Location: New Hampshire
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 9:08 am Post subject: |
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Whether pushing J5s is -EV is dependent on how much FE you have, which is dependent on what your opponent is like. Brian seems tight enough, but it's hard to tell from earlier in a SnG what a player is going to be like HU. The thing about J5s is that you pretty much are never beating anything he calls with. So unless he has a narrow calling range, it can be fairly bad. If he is calling you with any PP, broadway, Ax, Kx, and lot of Qx -- which some players do -- shoving J5s doesn't look so good.
Ok, I'm doing some calculations. Pokerstove says you are winning against a call 37% of the time, losing about 62.5%. He's only calling 38.5% of the time, so that turns into about a 24% chance of losing. I may have changed my mind about whether to shove.
J9s I think I'd usually fold, but in light of this, I think shoving is fine. |
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sixandfour
Royal Flush
Joined: 31 Mar 2007
Posts: 550
Location: Far from home
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 9:14 am Post subject: |
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| This could go either way here, but I'm inclined at first to shove since he limp/folds so much. On the other hand, you've shown that you're not afraid to push a lot of hands so he could very well be "trapping" with his raisable hands... I know that's kinda stupid with unmade hands, but so is limping in every hand with 8 blinds, so villain is clearly capable of it. I still raise here, but that's something you want to be thinking about. You might want to try some 1.5-2xBB raises as opposed to shoves since he folds so easy just to save yourself from doubling him up when he limps in on a monster, at least until you pound him down under 5 blinds. |
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Badlydrawnboy
Flush
Joined: 28 Jan 2008
Posts: 127
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 9:25 am Post subject: |
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Why should we shove here? We have a marginal hand ourselves as well (although it's better than the J5s). You don't know what he is limping with.
Just check and watch another free flop, is what I would do. On the flop, we can bet on top pair, second pair or a flush draw. Otherwise, the hand is over for me.
(I do understand that some people would shove because they expect Brian to fold, but I don't like the risk involved. If he does call, we're almost always in a coinflip situation or worse.) |
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dcdoorknob
Royal Flush
Joined: 11 May 2007
Posts: 983
Location: Mississippi
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 3:55 pm Post subject: |
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| Badlydrawnboy wrote: |
| Why should we shove here? We have a marginal hand ourselves as well (although it's better than the J5s). You don't know what he is limping with. |
In short, pushing leaves 3 possible outcomes for the way the hand will end, 2 of which are favorable for me.
1) He folds, I take the 1200 in the pot. That is almost 10% of the chips in play, certainly a significant amount.
2) He calls, but loses. I win the tournament.
3) He calls and wins, takes a 2 to 1 chip lead.
Outcome 3 has to happen a relatively high % of the time in order to counteract both outcomes 1 and 2, from a mathematical perspective (which I'm not even directly getting into). He might be trapping, but all signs indicate that he is simply trying to limp in from the SB with all but his very worst hands, which to me means that when I push outcome 1 is quite likely (since he will have quite a lot of hands in this spot that he will fold). When he does call, even if it is usually with the best hand, I still win 35 to 40% of the time. If I'm right and he's folding a good % of the time, then outcome 3 just can't happen often enough to make pushing a losing play long term.
nilgiri, if your %s are correct, then a push is very marginally +EV with the J5s, unless I did the math wrong. I somewhat think his calling range could well be tighter than what you laid out though (is he calling w/ K2o? I'm certainly not comfortable assuming that), which would make it even better for me. |
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Badlydrawnboy
Flush
Joined: 28 Jan 2008
Posts: 127
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 8:34 pm Post subject: |
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Yes, outcome 1 and 2 are great, but if outcome 3 happens it's for half your stack and he becomes the favourite to win.
Perhaps my style in HU is still too weak-tight, I don't know. I appreciate your comments, anyway. |
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renegades8
Forum Fish
Joined: 26 Nov 2006
Posts: 3518
Location: spewing @ 25NL
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 1:46 am Post subject: |
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| Badlydrawnboy wrote: |
Yes, outcome 1 and 2 are great, but if outcome 3 happens it's for half your stack and he becomes the favourite to win.
Perhaps my style in HU is still too weak-tight, I don't know. I appreciate your comments, anyway. |
I know I've mentioned it a bunch already in this thread, but read up on ICM. It's really useful in SNGs where it's short-handed with big blinds relative to the stacks, and also useful for spots like these HU. This is a great link, it provides three pages of info as well as an ICM Calculator:
http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php |
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dcdoorknob
Royal Flush
Joined: 11 May 2007
Posts: 983
Location: Mississippi
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 3:51 am Post subject: |
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BDB, I understand the mindset, believe me, but when blinds get this big, you don't outplay your opponents with what some great postflop play or elaborate trap, there is no room for that. You outplay them by being willing to take calculated risks that they are not willing to take.
And I've hit upon it before, but in these turbos you really have to embrace that the format does necessarily involve taking big risks with marginal hands and a fairly large helping of luck, but by being willing to take those risks (when they are favorable for you) when your opponents aren't, THAT is quite possibly the biggest single reason why the winning players win and the rest don't, imo. That is where the biggest edge comes from, at least at the lower levels. Alot of times the 'correct' moves when the blinds get huge are completely counterintuitive to the average player at these stakes, and completely opposite of 'normal' poker with deeper stacks and smaller blinds.
(I talk like I'm an expert sometimes, when I clearly am not, but this is just how it seems to me)
Hand #71
Full Tilt Poker $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds - 2 players
The Official Hand History
dcdoorknob (BB): t8919
Brian (BTN/SB): t4581
Pre Flop: dcdoorknob is BB with J 9
Brian calls t300, dcdoorknob raises to t8919 all in, 1 fold
Final Pot: t1200
dcdoorknob wins t1200
Hand #72
Full Tilt Poker $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds - 2 players
The Official Hand History
dcdoorknob (BTN/SB): t9519
Brian (BB): t3981
Pre Flop: dcdoorknob is BTN/SB with A  3
dcdoorknob ???
Back to previous hands, I still think the J5 is very marginal, with neither a push or fold being horrible (maybe even a completion with an aim to bluff many flops), but if the blinds were 1 level higher I'm pushing w/ the J5 all day. J9 I don't think it is so close honestly given his recent actions, its just hard for me to see a push being a long term loser. Maybe someone could argue that they could show a greater profit by taking a flop then bluffing at it alot when they don't hit, but I'm skeptical (he seems to be employing this strategy himself possibly, and he is able to bluff first in this hand), and I just personally hate to play flops when stacks are so short, its just so awkward. I'm having problems with a smaller raise with intentions to fold to a shove as well, as we'll be getting pretty good odds to call anyways, I'd rather just give him the most incentive to fold by shoving.
I'll pause with the A 3 in hopes that maybe we can come to a consensus on this one. |
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Badlydrawnboy
Flush
Joined: 28 Jan 2008
Posts: 127
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 7:12 am Post subject: |
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I guess the problem I have with the mathematical stuff is that it must be based on analysis stretching over hundreds of thousands of hands. I don't play hundreds of thousands of SnG's, so I tend to make a decision based on the situation right now.
Perhaps it is statistically wrong, but as dcdoorknob said, it's "counterintuitive".
Also, I read up a little bit about ICM, but I think there are too many "unknowns" in the equation. I don't know if I'm really going to be a winning player in the short term (all of us play short term, you can't play poker for 300 years, you'll be dead by then).
About the A3 hand: I read in my poll in the "Poker Stories" section that you hate this hand when shortstacked, are you pushing with it now when you are the big stack?  |
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renegades8
Forum Fish
Joined: 26 Nov 2006
Posts: 3518
Location: spewing @ 25NL
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 10:15 am Post subject: |
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| Badlydrawnboy wrote: |
| Also, I read up a little bit about ICM, but I think there are too many "unknowns" in the equation. I don't know if I'm really going to be a winning player in the short term (all of us play short term, you can't play poker for 300 years, you'll be dead by then). |
Like what? |
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nilgiri
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 1514
Location: New Hampshire
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 1:12 pm Post subject: |
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| Badlydrawnboy wrote: |
| I guess the problem I have with the mathematical stuff is that it must be based on analysis stretching over hundreds of thousands of hands. I don't play hundreds of thousands of SnG's, so I tend to make a decision based on the situation right now. |
You are still making decisions "right now" when you take the mathematical stuff into consideration. Just because you are using math doesn't mean you don't use reads and other skills as well.
The thing is, even when you use logic that doesn't seem to be mathematically based, it often still is. For example, when you say something like this:
| Quote: |
| I do understand that some people would shove because they expect Brian to fold, but I don't like the risk involved. If he does call, we're almost always in a coinflip situation or worse. |
The risk you don't like is a mathematical risk.
| Quote: |
| About the A3 hand: I read in my poll in the "Poker Stories" section that you hate this hand when shortstacked, are you pushing with it now when you are the big stack? |
Definitely push! |
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Badlydrawnboy
Flush
Joined: 28 Jan 2008
Posts: 127
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 2:56 pm Post subject: |
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| renegades8 wrote: |
| Badlydrawnboy wrote: |
| Also, I read up a little bit about ICM, but I think there are too many "unknowns" in the equation. I don't know if I'm really going to be a winning player in the short term (all of us play short term, you can't play poker for 300 years, you'll be dead by then). |
Like what? |
Well, things like calling ranges (both my own range and that of my opponent). You have to be pretty sure about it, and I think nobody really knows what hands he's really limping in with. If he is really tight, he might as well limp in with KJo, how do you know?
I was also wondering about what dcdoorknob said about that there is "no room for postflop play here". Really? I would say "there is more room for me than for my opponent". We have over 9000 in chips, if he is really this tight, we can easily push him out or even pull off a complete bluff (after all, a pot-sized bet on the flop would "only" be 1200 if we check preflop...)
Just my thoughts, but as I already said, I'm not pretending that I am correct here. |
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