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Kloaked Spirit
Royal Flush
Joined: 03 Nov 2005
Posts: 869
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 Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 12:59 am Post subject: |
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They way it could be monitored is to have a control for the end data. Now mathematically we can predict what the results should be. Now, there's charts/graphs/etc which already has all the odds of certain situations happening. For example, you can mathematically predict how often you should be running into a pocket pair vs. pocket pair situation (like AA vs. KK) or set vs. set situations and the like. Even if you thought the internet was full of bad information, you could still do this by hand or by your own computer programs and get this control information yourself.
We can also give ourselves slight room for error based off of standard deviations. This is commonplace with any sort of statistics taking, regardless of industry or occupation, so don't think I'm trying to add this in because it's poker. So now you have all the control data you need. It's time to datamine.
Datamining for those that don't know is collecting millions upon millions of hand histories to get substantial data on people and how they play. Because you have these millions of hands collected (and people have already done this) you'd be able to get substantial information on how often the results of certain situations are happening. So if xyz situation is only supposed to happen 10% of the time, and you see it happening 17% of the time, you now have enough data to call this into question. Something would definitely be up. Plus you have the data to back it up so when you post the data, no one can say "ha ha you don't have evidence!"
No one with the data has found anything strange. Now maybe they haven't reported it yet because they now have the "true odds" and are using those "true odds" to obtain a huge advantage over other players. Knowing that your flush draw is 40% to hit rather than 32% to hit would be critical in making better poker playing decisions. If greed outweighs fame in that case, they wouldn't want to report anything. Most likely though, things like this couldn't be kept a secret for too long. Someone would eventually speak out to spite other people doing it, or to spite the poker place, or whatever excuse they may have.
You're more than welcome to try this yourself if you wish to acquire the databases (assuming you can find a place to do it, I don't know how easy it is to be honest.)
Edit: Additional and practical reason why things like that haven't been reported out of the sake of fairness in a discussion.
Last edited by Kloaked Spirit on Sat Dec 16, 2006 1:09 am; edited 1 time in total |
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2 high flush
Moderator
Joined: 03 Nov 2005
Posts: 7812
Location: Climbing out of hell, life hell that is
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 1:03 am Post subject: |
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| NOLEMIKE93 wrote: |
| Do we get badges if we join the Task Force??? |
we dont need no stinkin batches. |
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django71
Three of a Kind
Joined: 03 Dec 2006
Posts: 100
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 1:04 am Post subject: |
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| Kloaked Spirit wrote: |
| sirch1 wrote: |
| You would have to be a fool to think the tournaments aren't structured to finish faster. |
Of course they're structured to go faster. They just structure it to be faster by manipulating the blind structure instead of anything shady. By doing that, you'll notice the blinds can get absurdedly high compared to chip stacks come final table time. Then it almost becomes a shove-fest to win the top prize.
Once again, FTP seems to have come up with a completely legitimate way to accomplish the same goals for more profit. If they keep doing that, why would they need to go toward more shady methods? |
As I mentioned earlier, tables can be added easily but not the players. There are disproportionately more bad players than good ones. For this reson, by sheer number they contribute more to online casino. I'd like to keep such players playing as long as possible, if ran online casino The only way to prolong their playing is by rewarding them once in a while. Also I would favor good aggresive players over those less aggresive beacuse game can be moved faster. As long as such players make money , why not reward others once in a while. Everyone is happy!
I've played a lot of live games and I can say that if bad players online would give up as fast as bad players in live game then online casinos would loose a lot of customers. |
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Kloaked Spirit
Royal Flush
Joined: 03 Nov 2005
Posts: 869
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 1:20 am Post subject: |
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| django71 wrote: |
As I mentioned earlier, tables can be added easily but not the players. There are disproportionately more bad players than good ones. For this reson, by sheer number they contribute more to online casino. I'd like to keep such players playing as long as possible, if ran online casino The only way to prolong their playing is by rewarding them once in a while. Also I would favor good aggresive players over those less aggresive beacuse game can be moved faster. As long as such players make money , why not reward others once in a while. Everyone is happy!
I've played a lot of live games and I can say that if bad players online would give up as fast as bad players in live game then online casinos would loose a lot of customers. |
Actually if you take a look at how the rake system works and how many hands professional online poker players play, you'll see that the big rake generators are the professional grinders. It makes sense as a .05/.10 game may never see a $3 rake where a $5/$10 game (where you could make a living doing this) sees a $3 rake 90% of the time. It's not too uncommon for the top SNG players or top limit poker players to spend tens of thousands of dollars in a month on rake alone. That's why they have things such as rakeback, and most VIP/Bonus/Point Store programs are most easily gained by grinding out thousands and thousands of hands. Doing that generates the most rake for them so they want you to do it.
The object of any casino is to keep your moneymakers happy, and everything from their promotions dictate that the money makers are the professional grinders, not the low level grannies that deposit the minimum to play a couple hundred hands before going busto. |
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django71
Three of a Kind
Joined: 03 Dec 2006
Posts: 100
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 1:31 am Post subject: |
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| Kloaked Spirit wrote: |
They way it could be monitored is to have a control for the end data. Now mathematically we can predict what the results should be. Now, there's charts/graphs/etc which already has all the odds of certain situations happening. For example, you can mathematically predict how often you should be running into a pocket pair vs. pocket pair situation (like AA vs. KK) or set vs. set situations and the like. Even if you thought the internet was full of bad information, you could still do this by hand or by your own computer programs and get this control information yourself.
We can also give ourselves slight room for error based off of standard deviations. This is commonplace with any sort of statistics taking, regardless of industry or occupation, so don't think I'm trying to add this in because it's poker. So now you have all the control data you need. It's time to datamine.
Datamining for those that don't know is collecting millions upon millions of hand histories to get substantial data on people and how they play. Because you have these millions of hands collected (and people have already done this) you'd be able to get substantial information on how often the results of certain situations are happening. So if xyz situation is only supposed to happen 10% of the time, and you see it happening 17% of the time, you now have enough data to call this into question. Something would definitely be up. Plus you have the data to back it up so when you post the data, no one can say "ha ha you don't have evidence!"
No one with the data has found anything strange. Now maybe they haven't reported it yet because they now have the "true odds" and are using those "true odds" to obtain a huge advantage over other players. Knowing that your flush draw is 40% to hit rather than 32% to hit would be critical in making better poker playing decisions. If greed outweighs fame in that case, they wouldn't want to report anything. Most likely though, things like this couldn't be kept a secret for too long. Someone would eventually speak out to spite other people doing it, or to spite the poker place, or whatever excuse they may have.
You're more than welcome to try this yourself if you wish to acquire the databases (assuming you can find a place to do it, I don't know how easy it is to be honest.)
Edit: Additional and practical reason why things like that haven't been reported out of the sake of fairness in a discussion. |
Datamining will give you only circumstantial skewed evidence. How do you guarantee you are datamining untainted data? Yes, you can intercept internet traffic! I could encrypt data to make it more complicated etc. So what that powerful government could do it to get such circumstantial evidence! What do you do next! Anounce to the whole world that you illegally monitored international internet traffic to get such lame evidence!? Why lame? Determinig odds is one thing but I could easily keep them within reasonable tolerance by manipulating odds during all-in bets. So what that odds are ok when you play small bets and get knocked out when you are clearly favorite while making big bet? Dataming is not artificial intelligence that I don't think is at the point to determine betting variations and decisions based on psychology!?
Bottom line it is impossible to prove just with data mining!
Last edited by django71 on Sat Dec 16, 2006 1:46 am; edited 2 times in total |
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CitizenCain
Three Pair
Joined: 23 Oct 2006
Posts: 2474
Location: Behind a huge stack of chips.
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 1:37 am Post subject: |
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| I nominate this thread for the annual tin foil hat awards. |
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django71
Three of a Kind
Joined: 03 Dec 2006
Posts: 100
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 1:59 am Post subject: |
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| Kloaked Spirit wrote: |
| django71 wrote: |
As I mentioned earlier, tables can be added easily but not the players. There are disproportionately more bad players than good ones. For this reson, by sheer number they contribute more to online casino. I'd like to keep such players playing as long as possible, if ran online casino The only way to prolong their playing is by rewarding them once in a while. Also I would favor good aggresive players over those less aggresive beacuse game can be moved faster. As long as such players make money , why not reward others once in awhile. Everyone is happy!
I've played a lot of live games and I can say that if bad players online would give up as fast as bad players in live game then online casinos would loose a lot of customers. |
Actually if you take a look at how the rake system works and how many hands professional online poker players play, you'll see that the big rake generators are the professional grinders. It makes sense as a .05/.10 game may never see a $3 rake where a $5/$10 game (where you could make a living doing this) sees a $3 rake 90% of the time. It's not too uncommon for the top SNG players or top limit poker players to spend tens of thousands of dollars in a month on rake alone. That's why they have things such as rakeback, and most VIP/Bonus/Point Store programs are most easily gained by grinding out thousands and thousands of hands. Doing that generates the most rake for them so they want you to do it.
The object of any casino is to keep your moneymakers happy, and everything from their promotions dictate that the money makers are the professional grinders, not the low level grannies that deposit the minimum to play a couple hundred hands before going busto. |
At the present moment, there are 28K players online. How many of these players ar professionals? Very generous estimate 27K having fun 1K working. Corrections are welcome!
Hypothetical scenario:
27,000 x guess average fee $1 a game x guess 1 hour per game x 24 hrs x 365 days = ourageous $236 million a year (very very rough estimate)
10% faster turnover = $23 million a year
These estimates are unsubstantiated but mathematics is refreshing!
Maybe I should start online poker business? |
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acesfullokings9
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 30 Sep 2006
Posts: 1740
Location: Australia
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 2:03 am Post subject: |
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One word, idiot. You want this to be rigged because then you won't have to realise how crap you are. You are told how to work it out and decide that that is also tainted.
Just realise you are an ATM and move on. |
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django71
Three of a Kind
Joined: 03 Dec 2006
Posts: 100
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 2:11 am Post subject: |
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| acesfullokings9 wrote: |
One word, idiot. You want this to be rigged because then you won't have to realise how crap you are. You are told how to work it out and decide that that is also tainted.
Just realise you are an ATM and move on. |
Bloke,
Get lost, will you? You have not made any intelligent remark so far! I didn't know Full Tilt hires retards. There must be some affirmitive action for mentally challenged there? Tax breaks or something!
Bring it on punk!
By the way, that was more than one word. I'm not surprised that mathematics is not your forte. How do you manage to stay afloat? |
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acesfullokings9
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 30 Sep 2006
Posts: 1740
Location: Australia
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 2:46 am Post subject: |
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Oh so narrowminded. You assume I don't know maths because I won't buy into ur ridiculous theory. I realise that you may think that I am not intelliegent because I don't agree with you. But it's gonna be ok because I just popped down to supermarket and I bought some foil, just come on over and we'll make hats together, then everything should be sweet.
As for staying afloat, I worked out that if I got better at poker and played within my BR then I would be fine, and shock horror this approach is yielding some results.
But I could've gone the way you have and gone for a self indulgent conspiracy theory ....
I think my choice was a lot smarter, but I can still help you out with the hat  |
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django71
Three of a Kind
Joined: 03 Dec 2006
Posts: 100
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 3:23 am Post subject: |
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| acesfullokings9 wrote: |
Oh so narrowminded. You assume I don't know maths because I won't buy into ur ridiculous theory. I realise that you may think that I am not intelliegent because I don't agree with you. But it's gonna be ok because I just popped down to supermarket and I bought some foil, just come on over and we'll make hats together, then everything should be sweet.
As for staying afloat, I worked out that if I got better at poker and played within my BR then I would be fine, and shock horror this approach is yielding some results.
But I could've gone the way you have and gone for a self indulgent conspiracy theory ....
I think my choice was a lot smarter, but I can still help you out with the hat |
It's your childish attack that lacks any reason why I think you are not too bright!
Do you believe that it's easy to manipulate online poker game or not? Give me a simple answer! Yes or not! |
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acesfullokings9
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 30 Sep 2006
Posts: 1740
Location: Australia
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 3:32 am Post subject: |
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I don't believe that Full Tilt manipulate the game. I believe the cards are random. Just because someone hits a 2 outer on me I don't think that it is rigged, I tell myself good job for getting my money in in such a dominating position.
I don't think it is rigged at all. |
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2 high flush
Moderator
Joined: 03 Nov 2005
Posts: 7812
Location: Climbing out of hell, life hell that is
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 3:33 am Post subject: |
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| django71 wrote: |
| Do you believe that it's easy to manipulate online poker game or not? Give me a simple answer! Yes or not! |
no doubt its easy. now heres a question for you.
does FT benefit more from running a legit site for all eternity. or does it benefit from cheating and eventually shutting down because it gets busted.
nobody here is saying that it isnt possible. nobody here is that naive. you however cant see past that fact. you think its the key element. you think that because you are right about that, that everyone should listen to you. but again nobody is saying it cant be done. we are saying that it would be idiotic to do it. |
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sirch1
Straight Flush
Joined: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 405
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 3:57 am Post subject: |
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| 2 high flush wrote: |
| django71 wrote: |
| Do you believe that it's easy to manipulate online poker game or not? Give me a simple answer! Yes or not! |
no doubt its easy. now heres a question for you.
does FT benefit more from running a legit site for all eternity. or does it benefit from cheating and eventually shutting down because it gets busted.
nobody here is saying that it isnt possible. nobody here is that naive. you however cant see past that fact. you think its the key element. you think that because you are right about that, that everyone should listen to you. but again nobody is saying it cant be done. we are saying that it would be idiotic to do it. |
Be realistic for ONE minute. Who is really going to bust them? |
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acesfullokings9
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 30 Sep 2006
Posts: 1740
Location: Australia
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 4:05 am Post subject: |
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| Trust is everything in this business, so it would be stupid to do anything that would arouse suspicion no matter how profitable. There is a gaming commission that regulates this site, and the site operates of Canada, I believe that country has laws. My Poker Office database doesn't contain enough hands to prove that the deal is random, but I believe in the world majority of the time we are supposed to believe in innocent until proven guilty, and no one has proved to me that poker sites are guilty of cheating players. |
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