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griffinlord

Had this one happen to me several times yesterday and I'm fairly sure that it isn't uncommon, and deadmoney was complaining that there wasn't enough activity in the fixed limit forum, so I'm bringing it up.

You have the best hand on the turn, say two pair or a set, and the river brings a third flush card or a third straight card. With people at the micros chasing any straight or flush draw (8-2 suited is a good hand??) I'm pretty sure you have to slow down on the river. The question is how much do you slow down?

I know some of this goes to a read on the table, but I've watched hands I wasn't involved in where a 4th suited card hit the river and there was a bet and a call with top pair winning the pot. On the other hand I've lost with two pair, trips, and straights to rivered flushes. How do you decide which of these situations you're in?

Right now I usually folding to an opponent who's been passive and suddenly wakes up on the river, otherwise I check/call when something scary hits the river.

Is there a better strategy?

BOYNAMEDSUE · Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2006 1:21 pm Post subject:

I like the check/call when the river is a scare card. You only gotta be right every once in a while for it to be a good play. Always call on the river for the pot odds. Of course, if you're 100% sure there's no way you're winning the pot, fold. But for the most part, call, especially online. Howard Lederer told me that once while playing $2/4 razz, but I think it would probably apply to online limit holdem too, especially online.

Did I ever mentioned that Howard's d'man?

Also, I'd be more inclined to call a runner-runner flush draw. How often do people chance backdoor flush draws? Every once in a while you'll run into one, but usually the person also hit top pair + backdoor flush draw, or something like that.

Kloaked Spirit · Royal Flush Joined: 03 Nov 2005 Posts: 869

1) Determine the number of people still in the hand. More people = Higher chance the card did help someone. This is especially true of 4-flushes and 4-straights on the board. Heads up, I'd be far more likely to value bet a strong hand when a scare card comes. Against 5 people, I may call or fold depending on the action.

2) Determine the number of possible draws this helped that would make sense. If KQJT is on the board, it's highly likely someone's got an Ace. At microlimits, people play aces often. However, it's much less likely that on a 2346 board, someone has a 5 (though still possible, I admit.)

3) As BNS said, I'd be far less worried about a backdoor draw than one that was obvious from the start.

4) Reads do help. If you have a read that says a person will chase and only get aggressive when they hit it, then you can be more likely to fold. If you have a read that someone likes to bet out scare cards, be more likely to call.

5) Compare the action prior to the draw with what's going on now. If all you had were calldowns prior to the scare card, then all of a sudden people bet out and raise, someone probably has something there.

deadmoney314 · Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2006 5:45 pm Post subject: Drowning at the river

Point #1 are my thoughts as well. Once you have more than 2 people see the river I find it very difficult to make a 2nd or 3rd overcall even with a set on boards that scary. Normally your only hope is that a jackal bets representing the nut flush getting 2 through 8 high flushes to fold if you make the first overcall�chances of that happening though are slim to none giving you few options. Someone can argue the case for raising a jackal trying to represent the nut yourself but you can run into a lot of problems doing this.

Most of the time in any situation, the river call is nearly automatic because of the size of the pot. If you make it past the turn you should be planning on at least calling the river�if you don�t the reason should be fairly fantastic for folding.

One thing I�d like to add is the difficulty of knowing what to do when you are in position at the river against two opponents who called your turn bet, and before the action gets to you, you are facing a bet and a raise. This dramatically reduces your river pot odds call with a set (and I�m not talking about 4 flush or 4 straight boards but the river bringing the 3 flush or straight card). This decision is going to be situational at best but the thought should cross your mind on the turn if there is a flush draw on the board of what you are planning to do on the river if the callers bet at an obvious scare card.
The complexion of your opponents will tell you if you should call a bet and a raise with your set or 2 pair�if they are loose cannons and have shown themselves to bluff at the river (this happens less as you move up limits) its probably time to call. If even one of them has played tight it doesn�t make sense for them to show strength at the river unless they have at least a near nut or the nuts. In any case, it will feel hard to swallow the pill and fold hands this strong.
Before making tough folds like these, and I know they don�t come all that often, become a river calling station but track the hands that you believe you thought you should fold regardless of the pot odds. If you are hitting over 90% accuracy on the hands that you thought you should fold, begin trusting your judgment and make some of the tough folds. If you can�t hit that percentage, just plan on calling every time you are unsure at the river. This will take a long time but it WILL improve your river calls even at microlimit.

deadmoney314 · Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2006 5:48 pm Post subject: Continuation bets

Addressing another topic on how much to slow down. If no one is showing strength and there are typically 3-4 people seeing the showdown which is typical of microlimit, I like continuing the betting but not raising. The reason is that people most likely did not improve with the river card or at least with a set or 2 pair you had at least a 50% equity on the turn. If it gets 3 bet before its back to you, someone made their draw. If everyone just calls, you probably still lost but it is no different than if you check called. The few times you squeak out 3 more big bets by value betting hands like 2 pair or better pays for the losses when you put in a continuation bet and have to fold or call one more bet.
I like the table image this builds too when you bet through a strong hand, it makes people more fearful of you when you are betting a draw or much weaker hand (without them knowing it).

Pokit2s · Message Board Junkie Joined: 22 Jun 2005 Posts: 1261

Plus, in your example, if holding two pair or a set, I don't believe it would EVER be correct to fold if there is ONLY three to the flush or three to the straight on the board. 4 to the straight, and 4 to the flush is a different story. But as far as only 3 to the flush or the straight, and you holding a stout hand like 2 pair or a set, I cant believe folding would be ever correct unless there was a bet, raise, and re raise right in front of you.

griffinlord · Posted: Sat Jan 14, 2006 8:09 pm Post subject:

Thanks all.

I think that I am on the right track. Need to practice some more, but I wasn't playing awfully.

griffinlord · Posted: Mon Jan 16, 2006 1:25 pm Post subject:

Just and update, if anyone cares.

My judgement on the river seems to be reasonably good: over the last two days when I was heads up with a scare card on the river (about 40-50 hands total):

Three hands I knew with certainty I was beat, and I was.

A bunch of hands where I felt that it was pretty likely I was beat and I was right more often than wrong.

A bunch where I felt that I was likely taking the pot and I was right more often then wrong.

Two hands were I was certain they had a busted draw and were trying to bluff and I was right both times.

Two hands where I completely missed that the river was a scare card, and it cost me extra bets.

Whenever I was against two or more opponents the scary river almost always beat me.

So, I think the next step for me is figuring out when to call those hands where I'm pretty sure, but not certain, that I got rivered heads up. I think that if the pot is laying me 6-1 or better the call is worth it, because I think I'm winning about 20-25% of these pots. Less than 4-1 and I should lay it down. Hopefully I don't get any at 5-1 Confused

Thanks again for the advice.

Pokit2s · Message Board Junkie Joined: 22 Jun 2005 Posts: 1261

Glad to hear everything is well. What limit do you play if you dont mind my asking?

griffinlord · Posted: Mon Jan 16, 2006 4:24 pm Post subject: Re:

deadmoney314 · Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2006 5:02 pm Post subject: .25/.50

It seems to me NL players have a much easier time adjusting to limit than vice versa. Sounds like a good way to start learning, micro is easy to crush once you get the hang of it. Highest percentage of fish so you will definately, see more bad beats--especially bad rivers that make weird straights or flushes. On the other hand, the pots you drag in will have lots of extra big bets from people who simply do not know how to play hold'em (unlike your problem of just learning the nuances of limit). It sucks to see a fish go runner runner, but once you see him/her failing 19 times in a row you begin to forgive him/her Wink

You should have a variance well over 15 BB per hour but you should also be averaging > 4BB/hr or 100 hands which gives you nice linear rise in bankroll.

Unless you are pro, 2/4 and 5/10 are good games, usually the hot spot on any major poker site. Plenty of fish too albeit not as many as .25/.50 but the weekly gains at the higher limit make it seem more worth your time. I usually find the rake structure really favorable at these limits too.

jack-actionhero · Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2006 5:04 pm Post subject:

deadmoney, I'd like to see you play live sometime. I'm trying to play in as many live MTTs as poosible right now, usually 3 to 4 per week. I know you're a Caro theory subscriber and probably play mostly cash ring games, but I'd like to see your game on the felt. Any chance you'd want to enter a tournament with me sometime?

deadmoney314 · Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2006 5:18 pm Post subject: Ugh, tourney

yeah, the thought that crosses my mind first is "ick" (as far as tourneys). Let me know a bar that has the MTT payouts and I'll consider it because I can at least rationalize it as a night out. I'm having trouble lately finding the time for more than 3 sessions a week--not that I'm Mr. Popular or something, but it seems like everyone I know has some excuse to go out to Chinos or something every other day of the week.

jack-actionhero · Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2006 5:21 pm Post subject:

The one I'm playing in tonight usually has a top prize of $100-$150 and there are usually only around 40 players, some of whom are just drunk and stumble into the back room to play for the heck of it.

The one I do on Thursday night at The New Moon gives out $50-$75 and has real poker table tops and around 50-60 players, some of whom think they're really hot sh!t.

deadmoney314 · Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2006 5:32 pm Post subject: weekly?

Do they have these weekly? If so I'll check back next week, tonight i'm going out, and thurs my brother-in-law is hosting a lanaggeddon laptop war--sorry both sound more fun Wink

Although its always entertaining to stare down a group of n00bs who think they're God's gift to poker...

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