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mathman1115
Wizard of Odderation
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 2762
Location: Land of the Fightin' Phillies
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 Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 1:23 am Post subject: |
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| Riddim wrote: |
| How can you say it's worthless while at the same time saying that you think it will be good 60-65% of the time? I'm confused. Also, you're in position. |
I'm only hitting running clubs statistically about 3.3% of the time. It's only good (by my estimation) about 60% of the time, which means i'm winning this pot with running clubs less than 2% of the time. Its not worthless, but close to it. Not to mention i would lose an extra bet on the river when it isn't good. You are right, i did have position, my mistake. What makes me uncomfortable here is that after i act on the flop bet, there are two players yet to act after me, which is what made me think i was out of position even though i obviously wasn't.
Rob - To me, for reasons stated above, the only reason to stay in this hand is for the 2 Queens left in the deck. A raise on the flop shuts out the other players whose calls can make my call +EV if i do spike a Queen on the turn. I understand your thinking with the raise, and i think it can be a good play depending on the players and your image. But with a solid player betting and a station yet to act on the bet, i feel a raise is throwing money away here. |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 5364
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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| mathman1115 wrote: |
I'm only hitting running clubs statistically about 3.3% of the time. It's only good (by my estimation) about 60% of the time, which means i'm winning this pot with running clubs less than 2% of the time. Its not worthless, but close to it. Not to mention i would lose an extra bet on the river when it isn't good.
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2 incorrect things in this paragraph:
- backdoor flush draws hit 4.1%, which is just as good as a 1-outer.
- an extra 2 or 3% chance at winning is not even close to worthless. In fact it is very significant when the pot odds you're getting require only about an 8% chance in total to win. |
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mathman1115
Wizard of Odderation
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 2762
Location: Land of the Fightin' Phillies
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 1:48 pm Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| mathman1115 wrote: |
I'm only hitting running clubs statistically about 3.3% of the time. It's only good (by my estimation) about 60% of the time, which means i'm winning this pot with running clubs less than 2% of the time. Its not worthless, but close to it. Not to mention i would lose an extra bet on the river when it isn't good.
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2 incorrect things in this paragraph:
- backdoor flush draws hit 4.1%, which is just as good as a 1-outer.
- an extra 2 or 3% chance at winning is not even close to worthless. In fact it is very significant when the pot odds you're getting require only about an 8% chance in total to win. |
Ever since i became the Wizard of Odderation i forgot how to count LOL. Ok, so the backdoor flush is 4.1%, and at a 60% chance that its good, that leaves me winning with running clubs about 2.45% of the time, and losing with running clubs about 1.65% of the time.
A club will miss the turn 78.7% of the time, where i would lose 1 small bet, for a net of -$0.78
A club will hit the turn, but miss the river about 17% of the time, where i would lose 3 small bets, for a net of -$0.51
I will win with running clubs 2.45% of the time, where i can estimate winning about 20 small bets, for a net of $0.49
I will lose with running clubs 1.65% of the time, where i would lose 5 small bets, for a net of -$0.08.
Net total is losing $0.88 to stay in for just clubs. So the question is are the Queens enough to make up for the loss in staying with clubs?
A queen will hit the turn about 4.25%, where i would win about 20 small bets, for a net of $0.85.
Only if a club hits on the turn will i see a river card, so the chances of the turn club and river Q are about .9%, where i would win about 20 small bets, for a net of about $0.18. So staying just for the Queens is worth about $1.03.
So staying in this pot for 1 small bet is worth about -$0.88 + $1.03 = $0.15, which is +EV.
This is also assuming several things, like villian doesn't already have a set of aces, the Qs on the river won't give him a flush, there won't be a check raise behind me and then a 3-bet, etc. and the idea that i can still win 4 more big bets after the turn card. The first two things are highly unlikely of course, but the latter two are quite reasonable to consider.
edit: not to mention a club on the turn and then a river Queen could lose to two clubs as well, which would not be entirely out of the question.
Overall, its a marginal call, and as someone said, lean toward calling when its marginal for large pots. I guess i should have called.
Last edited by mathman1115 on Mon Jan 21, 2008 5:15 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 6494
Location: Quitting smoking
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 5:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Thanks for doing the math I've been either forgetting or been to lazy to do for a while now. I actually think that the clubs not being good is a slightly bigger concern than it getting raised behind us though. |
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Checkrazed
High Card
Joined: 28 Mar 2008
Posts: 4
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| Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 3:40 am Post subject: |
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4 way action and 3 raises pre-flop almost always indicates at least one Ace in the field. It should be no harder to fold Queens in this situation than it would be to fold Kings in the same situation. Even if there aren't any Aces out there, with action from any of them the Queens become an overall dog. They may have an individual advantage over each separate hand they face, but against all of them it's unlikely to hold up (with two cards coming anyway).
Calling isn't an option. Duh. Folding shouldn't be an automatic decision, but it shouldn't be a hard one either. If you're going to continue in the hand, you have to raise. You potentially eliminate weak draws behind you, or you watch it raised and then you can lay it down. Or maybe you get away with a free turn/river. Then it has cost you far less to pay someone off on the river, if you have to pay at all.
I think it's a huge mistake to overcalculate the percentages behind running clubs. Statistics like these apply over an infinite number of events. The same way you can flip a coin and catch 100 heads in a row. Long term still runs it to 50/50. Or in poker terms, I'd obviously rather have 2/2 than AK. But how many people go broke--live or tournament--on 2's, versus how many people bust out with AK. Don't let Pot Odds and implied odds suck you into calls. |
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