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craigo6x
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 30 Oct 2006
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Location: Cursing the relievers in the bullpen
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 Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 9:57 am Post subject: |
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| fire_eyes_2k wrote: |
| craigo6x wrote: |
R-I play a lot of limit hold em and when I play live I play at the $7.50-15 or $10-20 level.
First-I'm not looking to build a big pot preflop with much of anything cause it's limit hold em and at best I have 1 pair.
Second-I understand its 1 bet on the flop, but its also potentially two big bets drawing to 2 Qs and possibly a third best flush.
Third-I don't assume my opponents think like me. This is why I said it's a fold. |
Oth: If we're going on who plays the highest stakes here, then you're not the top dog Craig. Slick plays higher than this live, and both myself and ridic play 5/10 online which is generally accepted to be superior to 10/20 live. Please don't use stakes played as a "This is why I am right" argument. Most regulars on here are qualified to comment on 1/2 hands.
First: I sort of agree with QQ multiway, it has lost a hell of a lot of value already.
Second: Where have you got this idea that you need to raise the turn if you pick up a club flush draw? Its an awful idea. What do you expect to get? A free showdown if you dont hit, and maybe an extra bet if you do.
Third: You can't assume your opponents don't think like you either, a lot of the time your raises are going to get 3bet, and a fold here gives up an opportunity to make some moolah when you regain the lead, and doesnt cost a fortune when you don't. I don't think a fold is necessarily wrong, but there may be more advantage gained (include some table image here) in the long run. |
Can anyone read around here?
First-I never said I'm right cause I play those stakes, I merely said I play those stakes to indicate I'm not a novice at the game.
Second-I never said raise the turn. I said raise the flop. It's a standard play to attempt a free river card by getting the oop players to check the turn. If I call 1 bet and miss the turn, I now have to call a big bet on the turn and its potentially cost me more money to get to the river where I may miss. If I get 3 bet on the flop-fine, with the nut flush (or solid flush draw) I want the pot to grow.
Third-I never assume my opponents think like me or don't think like me. I assess which opponents think like me and which don't and play accordingly. Assuming anything at the table is a recipe for disaster. |
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fire_eyes_2k
The Burn Card
Joined: 18 Jan 2006
Posts: 3390
Location: London
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 10:46 am Post subject: |
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| craigo6x wrote: |
Second-I never said raise the turn. I said raise the flop. It's a standard play to attempt a free river card by getting the oop players to check the turn. If I call 1 bet and miss the turn, I now have to call a big bet on the turn and its potentially cost me more money to get to the river where I may miss. If I get 3 bet on the flop-fine, with the nut flush (or solid flush draw) I want the pot to grow. |
Sorry, I thought this:
| craigo6x wrote: |
Second-I understand its 1 bet on the flop, but its also potentially two big bets drawing to 2 Qs and possibly a third best flush. |
meant you were spending 2 BB on the turn (by raising) as well as the one on the flop.
I'm well aware of the free card play and buying a free river card, but I just don't think its appropriate here, it's a really overused tactic. The free card play works best when you weren't the preflop aggressor, and there's a chance the flop missed your opponent (free card play also works on fold equity against a complete donk.) In this case, our hero 3bet preflop, and then was donked into on the flop, chances of getting 3bet here are pretty high, so it's not simply a case of 'so what' if you get 3bet. |
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craigo6x
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Joined: 30 Oct 2006
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Location: Cursing the relievers in the bullpen
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 11:01 am Post subject: |
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We are saying the same thing fire. My original thoughts on this hand is I'd rather it play as a represented flush draw rather than a pair of Qs, but I don't like representing the flush draw in this particular hand so I'd just fold the Qs.
As for getting 3 bet on the flop, I don't mind if I have the actual draw, but in this case since I don't, and even if I pick it up on the turn, I'm not happy with the third nut draw, there's no point in representing.
The two bets I was referring to was the a turn bet and a river bet. |
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Riddim
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Joined: 04 Dec 2005
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Location: Quitting smoking
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 12:45 pm Post subject: |
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| Why are you so unhappy with having the Qc here? I mean the outs obviously aren't completely clean, but we will be good a least half the time. Even against only AK and KK our backdoor draw is good half the time. Against any other A it's good 2/3 of the time. I just woke up so my head is too tired for detailed EV calculations, but based on some rough numbers it looks like calling or folding is really close if we're up against a range as strong as only AK and 99. Since we'll be in much better shape some small but still significant portion of the time, I'm still leaning towards a call here. |
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craigo6x
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Joined: 30 Oct 2006
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 1:06 pm Post subject: |
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Here's my concern R. The ideal card to hit is a Q (a 10% shot on the turn). If it doesn't hit, but a club comes, you now pick up a third nut draw, however, if the club that hits is under your Q, you have the Ac and Kc to contend with. With an ace on the flop, and two players in the hand, it could be out there. So you could be drawing dead to a Q.
If the Ac hits the board, now the board paired Aces and whatever club hits on the river could lose to the Kc or a boat. I just think in this hand, for what it could end up costing you to get to the river, the downside outweighs the upside. |
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Honest_Rob
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 1:24 pm Post subject: |
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This thread is great. 
You rarely see such emotion over a limit hand. |
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Riddim
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 1:45 pm Post subject: |
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| Craig, if you think it's a 10% shot to hit a Q on the turn, how can you possibly want to fold the flop getting 13:1? |
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craigo6x
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Location: Cursing the relievers in the bullpen
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 2:14 pm Post subject: |
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To be fair R you are 10% to catch a Q in one of the last two cards, so even though you are calling $1 getting 13-1 on the flop, you have a player still to act. If it's raised and reraised, you now have to call another $2 and are now getting just the right price and still have to deal with turn betting if you miss your 2 outer.
There are certainly times to chase cards in LHE; chasing 2 outers though just doesn't seem to be worth it. |
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Riddim
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 2:40 pm Post subject: |
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| craigo6x wrote: |
| To be fair R you are 10% to catch a Q in one of the last two cards, so even though you are calling $1 getting 13-1 on the flop, you have a player still to act. If it's raised and reraised, you now have to call another $2 and are now getting just the right price and still have to deal with turn betting if you miss your 2 outer. |
Yeah, I know that. I was just confused by you saying "The ideal card to hit is a Q (a 10% shot on the turn)."
| craigo6x wrote: |
| There are certainly times to chase cards in LHE; chasing 2 outers though just doesn't seem to be worth it. |
That depends on the price you're getting. Here I don't think going for a pure 2 outer is worth it, but we have the added benefits of the backdoor flush draw and a non-zero chance of winning a showdown unimproved. In addition, our implied odds against a better hand are pretty decent overall. While the backdoor flushdraw may have some reverse implied odds (and probably does), we can probably expect to win at least another 3 big bets most of the times that we spike a queen on the turn. |
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HuJwang
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Joined: 20 Aug 2006
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Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 5:44 pm Post subject: |
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| craigo6x wrote: |
Here's my concern R. The ideal card to hit is a Q (a 10% shot on the turn). If it doesn't hit, but a club comes, you now pick up a third nut draw, however, if the club that hits is under your Q, you have the Ac and Kc to contend with. With an ace on the flop, and two players in the hand, it could be out there. So you could be drawing dead to a Q.
If the Ac hits the board, now the board paired Aces and whatever club hits on the river could lose to the Kc or a boat. I just think in this hand, for what it could end up costing you to get to the river, the downside outweighs the upside. |
Why do most of your posts seem to consist of saying "he could have this" "he could have that". We know what hands he could have. You seem to be pushing aside the fact that he won't have those hands the majority of the time.
Anyway I think the conclusion is that the decision is really close, and that it's not really worth arguing over. Personally I think when it's close in a big pot you should swing towards a call, and when it's close in a small pot you should swing towards a fold. This means that when you're making a mistake, the mistake won't be a very big one, so you don't really have to worry too much. |
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griffinlord
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Joined: 20 Jul 2005
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Location: The Great Plains of South Dakota
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 6:32 pm Post subject: |
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Is villain prone to playing any ace? Are they prone to playing it fairly strong preflop?
Is the flop bettor going to bet any flop just to see what happens, or only flops that they hit? If the table is really nitty villain might bet any pair OOP on an ace high flop folding everyone who doesn't have an ace. If the table has calling stations or loose players then bluffing makes less sense and folding makes more.
Absent information about the bettor I agree that this is a close decision. But until someone clearly declares that they have an ace I don't like the fold. |
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mathman1115
Wizard of Odderation
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 3049
Location: Land of the Fightin' Phillies
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| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 6:26 pm Post subject: |
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| griffinlord wrote: |
If the table has calling stations or loose players then bluffing makes less sense and folding makes more.
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This is one of the main reasons i folded. As i said in the OP, villian who bet the flop was tight, and Urflamingo was a station. I couldn't imagine him betting here if he didn't have an Ace. And even if by some miracle he didn't have the ace, there was a good chance the original limpers/cold callers had one.
As far as the clubs go, i think the Qc is worthless here. Its going to cost me atleast 1.5 BB (and likely more being out of position) to hit my runner runner flush, which i think would only be good about 60-65% of the time. And that whole idea of "representing" clubs i just don't get here. With 4 players in a large pot, i could represent a set of aces and it still won't get anyone to fold if they caught a piece, especially the Ace.
If i had better position and it was only one more small bet, i definitely would have peeled one off. I never for a second considered raising. I think that is the worst play.
One of my concerns with folding here is appearing too passive. After this hand, i noticed players betting into me almost always after i raised preflop. I actually used it to my advantage by later slowplaying some big pairs heads up after the flop. So although i am letting players know i can give up hands easily post flop, i can still profitably use it to my advantage. |
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Riddim
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Location: Quitting smoking
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| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 6:36 pm Post subject: |
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| How can you say it's worthless while at the same time saying that you think it will be good 60-65% of the time? I'm confused. Also, you're in position. |
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Honest_Rob
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Joined: 21 Jul 2005
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| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:35 pm Post subject: |
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| mathman1115 wrote: |
| I never for a second considered raising. I think that is the worst play. |
I completely disagree. Folding for one SB in a pot this big is the worst play here. It is way too passive. I like raising because you shut out the first two players. If either of them or the bettor 3-bet you can fold knowing you are behind. If they call you now have a free turn because you are in position and I doubt he'll donk into you again after you just raised him. Drawing to your third queen or backdoor flush costs you one BB. By calling the flop and turn to draw it cost you 1.5 BB. In addition by raising you maximize fold equity and on occasion will take the pot down when your opponents fold or when they call down and you had the best of it all along. |
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Riddim
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 1:17 am Post subject: |
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| Rob, the free card part of it doesn't have much value when we need to pick up a draw on the turn to have any real use for it. I also don't really think we're ahead often enough on this flop that raising to be profitable because of that, or as a combination of the two. Maybe that's obvious though, since I've mentioned that I think it's usually a really close decision between calling and folding. |
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