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mathman1115
Wizard of Odderation
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 2986
Location: Land of the Fightin' Phillies
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 Posted: Wed Jan 16, 2008 9:13 pm Post subject: Did i make the right play? |
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One leak i have been trying to plug in my limit game is folding a strong hand on the flop after i've raised/reraised and there's a good chance i'm crushed. I'm trying to control my aggression. Is my fold correct here? LotaDimes is tight preflop, Urflamingo is a station if i ever saw one, and heeehawww i'm not too familiar with, but he seems to be playing somewhat tight.
Full Tilt Poker Game #4883584229: Table Valley - $1/$2 - Limit Hold'em - 16:50:49 ET - 2008/01/16
Seat 1: urflamingo ($78.50)
Seat 2: jimcat16 ($98.25)
Seat 3: heehaaww ($23.75)
Seat 4: LotaDimes ($67.50)
Seat 5: Mathman1115 ($42)
Seat 6: Harv3541 ($12)
Seat 7: IrinaS ($30)
Seat 8: aknaru ($40.50), is sitting out
Seat 9: nwu_Wcats ($45.25)
nwu_Wcats posts the small blind of $0.50
urflamingo posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mathman1115 [Qd Qc]
jimcat16 folds
heehaaww calls $1
LotaDimes raises to $2
Mathman1115 raises to $3
Harv3541 folds
IrinaS has 15 seconds left to act
IrinaS has been disconnected
IrinaS is sitting out
IrinaS has timed out
IrinaS folds
nwu_Wcats folds
IrinaS has reconnected
urflamingo calls $2
IrinaS has been disconnected
IrinaS has reconnected
heehaaww calls $2
LotaDimes calls $1
*** FLOP *** [5c 9c As]
urflamingo checks
heehaaww checks
LotaDimes bets $1
aknaru has returned
Mathman1115 folds
urflamingo has 15 seconds left to act
urflamingo calls $1
heehaaww folds
*** TURN *** [5c 9c As] [2s]
urflamingo checks
LotaDimes bets $2
urflamingo folds
Uncalled bet of $2 returned to LotaDimes
LotaDimes mucks
LotaDimes wins the pot ($14)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $14.50 | Rake $0.50
Board: [5c 9c As 2s]
Seat 1: urflamingo (big blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 2: jimcat16 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: heehaaww folded on the Flop
Seat 4: LotaDimes collected ($14), mucked
Seat 5: Mathman1115 folded on the Flop
Seat 6: Harv3541 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: IrinaS (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: aknaru is sitting out
Seat 9: nwu_Wcats (small blind) folded before the Flop |
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Honest_Rob
Postmaster General
Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 5427
Location: trying to get back to even
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| Posted: Wed Jan 16, 2008 9:47 pm Post subject: |
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| You need to raise this flop. This pot is way too big to fold for one small bet. The bigger the pot the more aggressive you should be. You can't just assume someone hit their overcard in this spot because they bet. |
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fire_eyes_2k
The Burn Card
Joined: 18 Jan 2006
Posts: 3282
Location: Old York
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| Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 6:50 am Post subject: |
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There's nothing wrong with folding that flop, its highly likely you're behind, as in about 95% likely. You could also call here and go set-mining on the turn. Youre getting about 13:1 (I think) so not quite the 22:1 required, but if you can drag another person along on the flop, then raise the turn if you hit, the odds become achievable. You'd need some kind of read that says your villains are a bit LAGgy. Backdoor flush draw is also slightly useful.
Raising is the one play I don't like cos you're essentially throwing away money. You drive opponents out if you're going set-mining, and they call or 3bet you when you're behind. Given that the donkbettor also raised preflop, theres a pretty high chance you'll get 3bet, which would be a disaster.
But essentially, nothing wrong with folding. |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 7090
Location: Quitting smoking
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| Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 7:06 pm Post subject: |
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| I think I'd tend to peel that flop simply because the pot is so huge and we're pretty close to having odds simply based on the backdoor clubs and 2 remaining queens. In addition to that we will win unimproved sometimes. Either by villain shutting down with a weaker hand when called on the turn, or by us picking up a club draw and villain shutting down after our turn call. |
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craigo6x
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 30 Oct 2006
Posts: 2567
Location: 1st Place
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| Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 9:30 pm Post subject: |
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I will respectfully disagree with Riddim. Though you can justify taking one off since you have position. the back door club draw is worthless in my opinion as its a third nut draw. If these guys are bluffable and will fold to aggression if the third club hits, taking one off and representing clubs is not bad. I have a two-fold concern though 1) What hand are you 3 betting preflop that will allow you to represent a club draw? AcKc or AcQc maybe, and if one of your opponents holds either of those cards you have a tough story to sell.
2) If you pick up a club draw-you have to raise with position which means you now have to raise the flop bet.
If you are playing this because you have Qs this flop is a fold. |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 5719
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 10:50 pm Post subject: |
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| craigo6x wrote: |
I will respectfully disagree with Riddim. Though you can justify taking one off since you have position. the back door club draw is worthless in my opinion as its a third nut draw. If these guys are bluffable and will fold to aggression if the third club hits, taking one off and representing clubs is not bad. I have a two-fold concern though 1) What hand are you 3 betting preflop that will allow you to represent a club draw? AcKc or AcQc maybe, and if one of your opponents holds either of those cards you have a tough story to sell.
2) If you pick up a club draw-you have to raise with position which means you now have to raise the flop bet.
If you are playing this because you have Qs this flop is a fold. |
You seem to be of the opinion that you are either playing this hand for the club draw OR for the pair of queens. Both things are unplayable by themselves, but combined together they probably have enough value to make it worth continuing.
At first I figured that if we want to continue we have to raise, but now I'm not so sure. What are we trying to knock out? There's a pretty good chance we're behind now. Basically, we want to knock out a king, or a smaller pair like 98. But the odds of those hands being out combined with the odds of them improving combined with the odds that we're already behind anyway, seem to make it not really worth it to raise. |
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craigo6x
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 30 Oct 2006
Posts: 2567
Location: 1st Place
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| Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:22 pm Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| craigo6x wrote: |
I will respectfully disagree with Riddim. Though you can justify taking one off since you have position. the back door club draw is worthless in my opinion as its a third nut draw. If these guys are bluffable and will fold to aggression if the third club hits, taking one off and representing clubs is not bad. I have a two-fold concern though 1) What hand are you 3 betting preflop that will allow you to represent a club draw? AcKc or AcQc maybe, and if one of your opponents holds either of those cards you have a tough story to sell.
2) If you pick up a club draw-you have to raise with position which means you now have to raise the flop bet.
If you are playing this because you have Qs this flop is a fold. |
You seem to be of the opinion that you are either playing this hand for the club draw OR for the pair of queens. Both things are unplayable by themselves, but combined together they probably have enough value to make it worth continuing.
At first I figured that if we want to continue we have to raise, but now I'm not so sure. What are we trying to knock out? There's a pretty good chance we're behind now. Basically, we want to knock out a king, or a smaller pair like 98. But the odds of those hands being out combined with the odds of them improving combined with the odds that we're already behind anyway, seem to make it not really worth it to raise. |
I don't like the pair of Qs. The only reason I would continue on this hand is to represent clubs, which means you need to raise the flop. My concern is what club combination could you have that warrants 3 betting preflop?
I'm of the opinion it's a fold. I don't even think it's worth a call. |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 5719
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:50 pm Post subject: |
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| craigo6x wrote: |
| HuJwang wrote: |
You seem to be of the opinion that you are either playing this hand for the club draw OR for the pair of queens. Both things are unplayable by themselves, but combined together they probably have enough value to make it worth continuing.
At first I figured that if we want to continue we have to raise, but now I'm not so sure. What are we trying to knock out? There's a pretty good chance we're behind now. Basically, we want to knock out a king, or a smaller pair like 98. But the odds of those hands being out combined with the odds of them improving combined with the odds that we're already behind anyway, seem to make it not really worth it to raise. |
I don't like the pair of Qs. The only reason I would continue on this hand is to represent clubs, which means you need to raise the flop. My concern is what club combination could you have that warrants 3 betting preflop?
I'm of the opinion it's a fold. I don't even think it's worth a call. |
well we have 2 outs to a set. those outs are most likely good and running clubs will be good most of the time, so I'd say we probably have ~3 outs, and that's not including the fact that we have some showdown value unimproved. I think it's worth continuing.
I don't know why you're concerned about trying to represent clubs. There just aren't going to be enough thinking players here at these low limits. Even if they do think you're trying to represent clubs I don't think most of them are going to go back to preflop and think that hard about which combinations of clubs you can have. Even if they do...... you can have AK of clubs and AQ of clubs which are both reasonable 3-betting hands. And to top it off, why does trying to represent clubs mean you have to 3-bet? Why can't a flop call also represent a flush draw? I just don't know where you're coming from. |
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craigo6x
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 30 Oct 2006
Posts: 2567
Location: 1st Place
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| Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:56 pm Post subject: |
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Forget about what people might or might not think at these levels. Playing as a smart person as you are, put yourself in the original flop bettor's shoes.
OP 3 bets preflop. If I pick up the nut flush draw on the button in limit hold em I'm raising any bet for two reasons. 1) Build the pot and 2) buy a free river card.
I agree that AcKc or AcQc could 3 bet in OP's shoes. But what if the flop bettor or caller holds one of those cards?
My point is, If i don't like my Qs, and I can't realistically represent the flush draw, I'd just let it go on this flop. |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 5719
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 12:20 am Post subject: |
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| craigo6x wrote: |
Forget about what people might or might not think at these levels. Playing as a smart person as you are, put yourself in the original flop bettor's shoes.
OP 3 bets preflop. If I pick up the nut flush draw on the button in limit hold em I'm raising any bet for two reasons. 1) Build the pot and 2) buy a free river card.
I agree that AcKc or AcQc could 3 bet in OP's shoes. But what if the flop bettor or caller holds one of those cards?
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I'd say he's holding one of those cards less than 25% of the time. Why are you letting that fact adversely affect your strategy?
And by the way "to build the pot" is not really a valid reason to raise your flush draw when it's heads up.
| Quote: |
| My point is, If i don't like my Qs, and I can't realistically represent the flush draw, I'd just let it go on this flop. |
Ok, then just keep building up big pots and folding just because an A hits even though you're getting reasonably good odds to continue. |
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craigo6x
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 30 Oct 2006
Posts: 2567
Location: 1st Place
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 12:26 am Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| craigo6x wrote: |
Forget about what people might or might not think at these levels. Playing as a smart person as you are, put yourself in the original flop bettor's shoes.
OP 3 bets preflop. If I pick up the nut flush draw on the button in limit hold em I'm raising any bet for two reasons. 1) Build the pot and 2) buy a free river card.
I agree that AcKc or AcQc could 3 bet in OP's shoes. But what if the flop bettor or caller holds one of those cards?
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I'd say he's holding one of those cards less than 25% of the time. Why are you letting that fact adversely affect your strategy?
And by the way "to build the pot" is not really a valid reason to raise your flush draw when it's heads up.
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| My point is, If i don't like my Qs, and I can't realistically represent the flush draw, I'd just let it go on this flop. |
Ok, then just keep building up big pots and folding just because an A hits even though you're getting reasonably good odds to continue. |
1) it wasn't heads up-there was a player still to act.
2) I'm building the pot post flop-after the ace hits if I have the nut flush draw, not preflop. |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 5719
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 12:32 am Post subject: |
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| craigo6x wrote: |
1) it wasn't heads up-there was a player still to act.
2) I'm building the pot post flop-after the ace hits if I have the nut flush draw, not preflop. |
1) i meant heads-up as in only 1 guy put money into the pot, and when you raise he is probably folding.
2) no idea what you're taking about |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 7090
Location: Quitting smoking
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 2:32 am Post subject: |
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| First off, representing clubs is not a great idea when the pot is this huge. KK might fold if villain has it, but any A is very likely to call down. Second, this is a really close decision either way unless villain donks a lot of worse hands. In that case it obviously becomes an easy call or raise. Third, Craig he's talking about building big pots with big pairs and then folding for one bet when the A hits, not building big pots with flush draws PF. Oh, and assuming that your opponents think like you do is a very bad habit, since most of them don't. |
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craigo6x
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 30 Oct 2006
Posts: 2567
Location: 1st Place
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 8:59 am Post subject: |
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| Riddim wrote: |
| First off, representing clubs is not a great idea when the pot is this huge. KK might fold if villain has it, but any A is very likely to call down. Second, this is a really close decision either way unless villain donks a lot of worse hands. In that case it obviously becomes an easy call or raise. Third, Craig he's talking about building big pots with big pairs and then folding for one bet when the A hits, not building big pots with flush draws PF. Oh, and assuming that your opponents think like you do is a very bad habit, since most of them don't. |
R-I play a lot of limit hold em and when I play live I play at the $7.50-15 or $10-20 level.
First-I'm not looking to build a big pot preflop with much of anything cause it's limit hold em and at best I have 1 pair.
Second-I understand its 1 bet on the flop, but its also potentially two big bets drawing to 2 Qs and possibly a third best flush.
Third-I don't assume my opponents think like me. This is why I said it's a fold. |
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fire_eyes_2k
The Burn Card
Joined: 18 Jan 2006
Posts: 3282
Location: Old York
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 9:45 am Post subject: |
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| craigo6x wrote: |
R-I play a lot of limit hold em and when I play live I play at the $7.50-15 or $10-20 level.
First-I'm not looking to build a big pot preflop with much of anything cause it's limit hold em and at best I have 1 pair.
Second-I understand its 1 bet on the flop, but its also potentially two big bets drawing to 2 Qs and possibly a third best flush.
Third-I don't assume my opponents think like me. This is why I said it's a fold. |
Oth: If we're going on who plays the highest stakes here, then you're not the top dog Craig. Slick plays higher than this live, and both myself and ridic play 5/10 online which is generally accepted to be superior to 10/20 live. Please don't use stakes played as a "This is why I am right" argument. Most regulars on here are qualified to comment on 1/2 hands.
First: I sort of agree with QQ multiway, it has lost a hell of a lot of value already.
Second: Where have you got this idea that you need to raise the turn if you pick up a club flush draw? Its an awful idea. What do you expect to get? A free showdown if you dont hit, and maybe an extra bet if you do.
Third: You can't assume your opponents don't think like you either, a lot of the time your raises are going to get 3bet, and a fold here gives up an opportunity to make some moolah when you regain the lead, and doesnt cost a fortune when you don't. I don't think a fold is necessarily wrong, but there may be more advantage gained (include some table image here) in the long run. |
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