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eckstein88
Two Pair
Joined: 14 Nov 2006
Posts: 57
Location: San Diego
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 Posted: Sun Oct 21, 2007 9:09 pm Post subject: bankroll cold feet |
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I just had a question on limit poker bankrolls:
I decided about a month ago to take my limit game seriously and start playing on a regular basis at my local casino (Barona in San Diego). I started off playing 3/6 limit and I set aside 1200 as my starting bankroll.
After about 60 hours of play, I have had enormous swings up and down, and I consistantly feel like I am one of the best players at the table (the exception always being the occasional regular shark, who I pretty much just stay away from as much as possible). I consistantly get my money in as a favorite, I play super tight and always get paid off and called (and re-raised when they are drawing to 4 outs or less), and I have made a lot of really good folds. I am able to read people pretty well, and when I test myself by guessing their hands, I am right fairly often. I don't think there is too much doubt I should be a winning player at the table.
Unfortunately, after a month and a decent number of hours played, I have lost half of my bankroll. I have suffered some terrible beats and made a few bad plays, but overall there hasn't been anything consistant that would explain this downswing other than variance.
However, after losing half my bankroll in just one month, I am beginning to wonder if I did not start out with enough money and if i should just wait a couple months until I can build a larger bankroll to start off with. I make a decent amount of side money playing no limit home games, and that is where the initial 1200 came from.
Could anyone give me some advice as to how much a downswing of this amount can be attributed to nothing more than bad variance? I understand the fundamentals of limit poker but I do not have a firm grasp on the amount of variance that is to be expected and I am just not sure if this is a downswing that I just need to play through or if i need to reevaluate my game and rebuild my bankroll before playing again.
Thanks in advance for any advice you have. |
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ridic x
Straight Flush
Joined: 03 Nov 2006
Posts: 485
Location: At your tables stealin your moneyz
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| Posted: Sun Oct 21, 2007 11:56 pm Post subject: |
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Honestly 1200 is not enough of a roll to play 3/6 and by seriously do you mean for a living.
As for 3/6 don't think you'll really make much money there, as the swings will be massive attributed to the guys simply there for fun. |
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CitizenCain
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 23 Oct 2006
Posts: 2022
Location: Behind a huge stack of chips.
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| Posted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 1:27 am Post subject: Re: bankroll cold feet |
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| eckstein88 wrote: |
Could anyone give me some advice as to how much a downswing of this amount can be attributed to nothing more than bad variance? I understand the fundamentals of limit poker but I do not have a firm grasp on the amount of variance that is to be expected and I am just not sure if this is a downswing that I just need to play through or if i need to reevaluate my game and rebuild my bankroll before playing again.
Thanks in advance for any advice you have. |
I've had $5000 swings (+/-) at that limit. As you've no doubt noticed, the large number of rich tourists is great for making it a soft limit, but awful for variance.
Don't play it without at least 6 grand in your bankroll, and preferably 10. Try your hand at .5/1 and 1/2 with that $1200 roll. Similarly soft, but your bankroll will be able to absorb the swings much better. |
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griffinlord
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 20 Jul 2005
Posts: 2454
Location: The Great Plains of South Dakota
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| Posted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 12:51 pm Post subject: Re: bankroll cold feet |
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| CitizenCain wrote: |
| As you've no doubt noticed, the large number of rich tourists is great for making it a soft limit, but awful for variance. |
Yep. Took me a while to realize that the poorer your opponents the greater your variance.
| CitizenCain wrote: |
| Don't play it without at least 6 grand in your bankroll, and preferably 10. Try your hand at .5/1 and 1/2 with that $1200 roll. Similarly soft, but your bankroll will be able to absorb the swings much better. |
CC--looks like he is playing live exclusively so I don't think he can move down below 2/4.
Otherwise CC has a good point: a minimum 3/6 bankroll at fairly low levels of variability should run about $3600. With the extra variability $6k minimum seems reasonable. |
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eckstein88
Two Pair
Joined: 14 Nov 2006
Posts: 57
Location: San Diego
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| Posted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 6:05 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks for the replies guys:
ridic - when I said "seriously" i just meant maintaining and recording a bankroll and working up the stakes as I improved, not as a source of necessary income. thanks for the reply.
CC -I see what you mean in regards to the variance. I can see the potential for huge gains but there is no question you need a solid bankroll to withstand the swings of a no fold'em hold'em style game. My intention was to primarily play live, as I don't get much enjoyment out of online play. I much prefer holding the cards and sitting with people (and getting meals comped  ). Are there really 800-1000 BB swings in limit? that seems insane!
griffin - thanks for the input. Yea i was trying to play live exclusively but I think I'll just put the money online and grind out the bankroll playing .25/.50 and .50/1 until I can get at least 3600-5000.
variance aside, how much should I expect to make on average in a super soft game like the .25/50 and .50/1 online limits?
Also, is there any way to know if I am in fact a winning player (before 1000s of hands to prove it)? I feel pretty solid about my game and when I went back and looked at SSHE i found that I was basically doing everything they say (without having read it in the past year and a half...I read it when I was strictly a NL player and didn't utilize any of it until a couple months ago)
Thanks again for all your input guys. |
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fire_eyes_2k
The Burn Card
Joined: 18 Jan 2006
Posts: 3348
Location: Old York
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| Posted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 6:45 pm Post subject: |
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I think 10k is a little excessive, but I fail to see why anyone would want to play 3/6 live "Seriously" anyway. The calibre from what I've heard is akin to a 10c/20c online game (about the highest level that SSHE applies)
I'm not convinced that loose games are the way forward anyway as the looser they are the more passive they seem to be nowadays so you can't get the value when you do flop your flush or straight. Look for shorthanded games where you can exploit your opponents' mistakes.
And at a full 9 or 10 seat table, you're a god if you can make more than 3 big bets per 100 hands. Shorthanded you can probably get it up to 8BB/100 and HU you can just pick a number, but I've heard there are people making 20BB/100
And no, there is no way to prove whether or not you're a winning player without practice and experience. |
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CitizenCain
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 23 Oct 2006
Posts: 2022
Location: Behind a huge stack of chips.
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| Posted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 7:45 pm Post subject: Re: bankroll cold feet |
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| griffinlord wrote: |
| CC--looks like he is playing live exclusively so I don't think he can move down below 2/4. |
Right, forgot that bit halfway through my post. Damn work is keeping me tired and forgetful for my poker pursuits. Bastids.
| eckstein88 wrote: |
| CC -I see what you mean in regards to the variance. I can see the potential for huge gains but there is no question you need a solid bankroll to withstand the swings of a no fold'em hold'em style game. My intention was to primarily play live, as I don't get much enjoyment out of online play. I much prefer holding the cards and sitting with people (and getting meals comped ). Are there really 800-1000 BB swings in limit? that seems insane! |
800-1000 big blinds is extreme, but not unheard of. And for limit, stop thinking in terms of BB (Big Blinds) and start thinking in terms of BB (Big Bets - double the big blind). (Yeah, ain't limit terminology awesome?  ) Like Griffon said, 300 BB (Big Bets) is a standard sized roll. So $3600 at that limit. And of course, the game really is awful, so lots of extra variance. And I'd kick it up even more so that if you hit a big downswing, you don't feel uncomfortable in that limit. I know that with a 6k roll, I'd be feeling pretty damned uncomfortable at anything less than 4k, and I like to withdraw and spend from my roll, so I'd go up to 10k, which (now that someone mentioned it) may be excessive, if you're not like me and impulsively pull out a few grand in poker profits to go buy a whatever.
At those limits, against those players, count yourself lucky to have some fun and buy out the car lease at the end of the year, but I really can't advise trying to build a roll from it - kinda like building up a roll at micros online. It can be done, but 2 years later, you'll still be in the low limits getting donked at constantly, when you could have just enjoyed the little extra income and 2 years later, bought in higher and won with the experience you've gained anyway. |
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griffinlord
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 20 Jul 2005
Posts: 2454
Location: The Great Plains of South Dakota
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| Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 12:43 pm Post subject: |
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| eckstein88 wrote: |
variance aside, how much should I expect to make on average in a super soft game like the .25/50 and .50/1 online limits?
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I'm not sure "super soft" describes these games anymore. Or maybe I suck worse than I thought, but I had a much easier time before the UGIEA.
How much you should make varies a lot based on relative skill. In one presentation Barry Tannenbaum talks about a theoretical maximum, for full tables, of 2BB/hour live so about 3BB/100. (No, I don't know where this number comes from, but he's been working on poker theory for a good 10-20 years so I figure he has some sort of a clue.)
As for how long before you know...thousands of hands. I worked it out once and for a fairly modest variance (SD around 12) it would take something like 50k - 60k hands to estimate your win rate per 100 to within plus/minus 1BB/100.
Variance is a bear. Even for an excellent player it is easily possible to drop 30BB in 100 - 200 hands due to bad luck. (Most of us mere mortals will tilt off another 5 - 50BB just for good measure.)
If you are a +3BB/100 player you are going to have to play 10*100 hands just to break even from that single bad session. So with 1100 hands under your belt you are at break even---assuming you can play another 1000 hands straight without running into another patch of bad luck.
Of course the opposite is also true. Even the -5BB/100 will hit an occasional run and be +50BB for a short (say 200 hand) session. |
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