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sixandfour
Royal Flush
Joined: 31 Mar 2007
Posts: 533
Location: Far from home
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 Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 7:24 am Post subject: |
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| MichaelPC1974 wrote: |
Why are people so fcking smug ? They always give it the big 'I am' ..... instead of listening to people or even, more simply, just not say anything, they feel the need to ridicule.
God bless |
If you listen to idiots, you just become one yourself. How many times should he "listen" to the same B.S.? You think this is the first time anyone came on here crying about it being rigged? They don't ever listen when you prove them wrong... |
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scottybabybaby
Banned
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
Posts: 53
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| Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 2:59 am Post subject: |
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| lolol riggggged nope.why would it be rigged for real. |
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Peepers_au
Full House
Joined: 15 Feb 2008
Posts: 178
Location: Melbourne, Australia
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| Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 3:42 am Post subject: |
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| drattt wrote: |
| Two years ago the bad beats started. I started keeping a spreadhseet of my all ins. My cards, the other guys cards, what the board was at the time we went all in, the percentage chance of winning the hand based on Carnegie Mellon's odds calculator. Over 650 all in hands I was the stronger hand 62% of the time. Statisticaly I should have won 53% of the time. In actual results I won only 39% of the time. |
If you're still reading this thread, do me a favour using your spreadsheet.
Run a two-tailed, paired, student t-test on the 650 "should have won" percentages vs. the 650 "actually won" percentages. If you're running Excel, the syntax for the equation should be:
=TTEST(Data1,Data2,2,1)
Data1 and Data2 are the 650 points of data for the expected and actual percentages. I'm sure it's already set up this way, but make sure the points of data for each hand are on the same row/column so they pair up properly.
What I'm interested in seeing is the number that function generates, which is called a p value. This value will be between 1 and 0 and represents the confidence with which you can claim the two series of data are the same or different. In your case, I'd be looking for a p value of < 0.05, or below < 0.10 at the least. A p value of < 0.05 lets you say that there's a greater than 95% chance that the two series of data are different.
If the p value is > 0.10, there's a good chance your sample size is still too small to give a definitive result or that there is no significant difference between the two sets of results.
P.S. If I botched the explanation of the statistics stuff a little, let me know. I'm a little rusty but I think I got it right. |
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just bluffing85
High Card
Joined: 11 Jun 2008
Posts: 2
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| Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 2:46 am Post subject: Too many bad beats at Full tilt |
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Here I go with my bad beats. I have been dealt aces and kings about 20 times in the past month I have played at full tilt and i have not even won once with them. I agree that odds will catch up with all those losers who go all in with stupid hands but when they do catch up than I believe you will just finish your entire bankroll playing at full tilt with your premium hands. I m a tight player who plays pretty much only premium hands and have noticed that I cant just win when I have aces, kings, queens or jacks and more often than not a losing player would hit on the turn to take the pot if it goes to river. And this has happened to me over and over again. If somebody wants a proof of how i have lost with my aces and kings so many times, i can provide you with my hand history as well.
Just one hand i played with my aces. I raise and another person goes all in with his QK and I think that my aces would definitely be good against his OK but guess what, first he flops a straight and than on the turn he gets royal flush.
Now when i m playing at full tilt, i just write it in the chat box that I have aces and I will lose with them and everytime i lose.
I am never ever playing at this site again. Bodog is way better than this site and I truly believe that. |
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just bluffing85
High Card
Joined: 11 Jun 2008
Posts: 2
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| Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 3:01 am Post subject: |
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| griffinlord wrote: |
| CrazyLilThing wrote: |
| It is amazing to me how so many easily assumes just because I, or others, have an opinion about the site not using a random generator that I am a bad poker player who is also a sore loser. |
Because that's what the odds dictate. The overwhelming majority of those who complain that online poker is rigged are largely ignorant of odds and tend to be poor players who think pretty highly of themselves.
If this isn't true of you then you are the minority.
| CrazyLilThing wrote: |
<snip of list of poker credentials>
Web designers can do anything they want with a computer site... including choosing who wins or looses and how long those 'streaks' last. But I enjoy playing, so I admit I wish they'd decide my loosing streak has lasted long enough  Either way, that is my opinion - as I've stated before I don't really care who likes it or agrees with it  |
While it is possible to design a program that would choose who wins and who loses it is considerably more difficult than it would be to design a program that is legit.
It would be nigh to impossible to design such a program that could escape notice of the quants who religiously collect their hand histories for millions of hands.
And really, who is so special that FTP has time to program their site to follow certain players around? |
I dont agree with you. FT makes money off the rake that it collects. I have experienced it on both sides. I have intentionally played bad hands at full tilt to see what i flop when somebody raises preflop. As an example I played with 34s against a reraise just to see if i flop anything. Guess what i flop a gutshot straight draw with me needing the 5 to complete my straight. I went all in on the flop as I really knew in my mind that 5 would come on the turn. Well you can guess the rest. The turn card was a 5 giving me the straight and other guy holding kings a bad beat. And it has happened to me the other way round as well with me holding the best cards and getting beaten on turn or the river over and over again. I dont know what other players do but I just cant even think of playing at this site anymore. |
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Blackray
Straight
Joined: 20 Mar 2008
Posts: 106
Location: Bergen, Norway
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| Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 8:18 am Post subject: |
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| just bluffing85 wrote: |
I dont agree with you. FT makes money off the rake that it collects. I have experienced it on both sides. I have intentionally played bad hands at full tilt to see what i flop when somebody raises preflop. As an example I played with 34s against a reraise just to see if i flop anything. Guess what i flop a gutshot straight draw with me needing the 5 to complete my straight. I went all in on the flop as I really knew in my mind that 5 would come on the turn. Well you can guess the rest. The turn card was a 5 giving me the straight and other guy holding kings a bad beat. And it has happened to me the other way round as well with me holding the best cards and getting beaten on turn or the river over and over again. I dont know what other players do but I just cant even think of playing at this site anymore. |
I'll welcome your 34s against me any day. I'll laugh all the way to the bank.
I think a L2P is in order. |
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StevieWard
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 12 Jul 2007
Posts: 1134
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| Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 9:00 am Post subject: |
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| just bluffing85 wrote: |
| griffinlord wrote: |
| CrazyLilThing wrote: |
| It is amazing to me how so many easily assumes just because I, or others, have an opinion about the site not using a random generator that I am a bad poker player who is also a sore loser. |
Because that's what the odds dictate. The overwhelming majority of those who complain that online poker is rigged are largely ignorant of odds and tend to be poor players who think pretty highly of themselves.
If this isn't true of you then you are the minority.
| CrazyLilThing wrote: |
<snip of list of poker credentials>
Web designers can do anything they want with a computer site... including choosing who wins or looses and how long those 'streaks' last. But I enjoy playing, so I admit I wish they'd decide my loosing streak has lasted long enough Either way, that is my opinion - as I've stated before I don't really care who likes it or agrees with it |
While it is possible to design a program that would choose who wins and who loses it is considerably more difficult than it would be to design a program that is legit.
It would be nigh to impossible to design such a program that could escape notice of the quants who religiously collect their hand histories for millions of hands.
And really, who is so special that FTP has time to program their site to follow certain players around? |
I dont agree with you. FT makes money off the rake that it collects. I have experienced it on both sides. I have intentionally played bad hands at full tilt to see what i flop when somebody raises preflop. As an example I played with 34s against a reraise just to see if i flop anything. Guess what i flop a gutshot straight draw with me needing the 5 to complete my straight. I went all in on the flop as I really knew in my mind that 5 would come on the turn. Well you can guess the rest. The turn card was a 5 giving me the straight and other guy holding kings a bad beat. And it has happened to me the other way round as well with me holding the best cards and getting beaten on turn or the river over and over again. I dont know what other players do but I just cant even think of playing at this site anymore. |
Wow - if you can predict odds like that why are you not a billionaire? |
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