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Star Ruby · High Card Joined: 22 Nov 2005 Posts: 1

This is the worst bad beat I've ever taken. I was playing $50 NL and got dealt pocket kings on the button. Two people limp in front and I raise it to $2. The blinds fold and the two limpers call. The flop comes Kh 8h Qd. First limper checks, the second limper puts in a pot-sized bet, and I raise it. First limper folds and the second limper goes all in for about $50. Well, I had to call as I had the best hand. He flips over Qh Th. He went all in on a flush draw. Unfortunately for me the turn delivered him his fifth heart and the river didn't give me quads or a full house so I was out. Anybody else agree that his going all in on a flush draw was bad play???

Gypsydc · Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 3:16 pm Post subject:

It sucks yeah, but maybe he was thinking that you were on a flush draw and if he went all-in like that you'd fold. Who knows...I would have folded but we all take the bad beats...but I'm sure you've been on the giving end. Better luck next time.

rob14136 · Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 5:06 pm Post subject:

At the point of the flop, you are a 70% favorite to win the hand with two cards to come. Your opponent is getting 2:1 odds on his money if he makes his hand. This is a bad call. However,,,

He couldn't possibly put you on a set of kings, but maybe something more like AK, where then, the outcome of the hand would be 50/50 and for that, 2:1 odds is a correct call, but with a neutral EV, or even money.

You want to think long run and not so much, what happened in this particular hand. You will get drawn out on often, this is part of the game, but if you play your statistics and learn pot odds, then you will be on the more often end of the spectrum with your favorite hand to win.

Good play for you, sorry it turned out that way this time.

Kloaked Spirit · Royal Flush Joined: 03 Nov 2005 Posts: 869

First of all, he wasn't going all in on a flush draw. He was going in on a pair + flush draw, and that makes a huge difference in the reasoning behind what he did. In fact, unless he could specifically put you on a set, he was almost even money or a small favorite in most cases.

Look at it from this way,

If you had AA and neither was a heart, he's got a 50/50 chance.

If you had AAh, then he's a 55/45 dog.

If you had AhK, then he's still only a 55/45 dog.

If you had AK with no heart, he's almost at 51/49 favorite.

If you had AQ with no heart, he's a 54/46 dog.

Granted, it wasn't the best move he could have made. More then likely he put you on AA or AK and was looking for a small gamble to pick up a huge pot. Even with you having a set, he's only a 70/30 dog, which is far from bad-beat territory.

Edit: Whoops, beaten by above post.

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