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renegades8
Forum Fish
Joined: 26 Nov 2006
Posts: 3402
Location: spewing @ 25NL
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 Posted: Fri Aug 24, 2007 7:19 pm Post subject: HORSE MTT Hand |
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Just wondering what I should have done differently in this hand. I'm pretty bad at razz, but thought this would be a good way at improving.
Full Tilt Poker Game #3353048203 (25561565), Table 31 - 150/300 Ante 25 - Limit Razz - 19:06:38 ET - 2007/08/24
Seat 1: olkkonen (150)
Seat 2: jshstoney (285)
Seat 3: renegades8 (5,427)
Seat 4: fuser81 (8,698)
Seat 5: kbergner (8,750)
Seat 6: vol in fl (940)
Seat 8: longleggs (1,788)
olkkonen antes 25
jshstoney antes 25
renegades8 antes 25
fuser81 antes 25
kbergner antes 25
vol in fl antes 25
longleggs antes 25
*** 3RD STREET ***
Dealt to olkkonen [3s]
Dealt to jshstoney [4c]
Dealt to renegades8 [Ac 6s] [8s]
Dealt to fuser81 [3d]
Dealt to kbergner [8d]
Dealt to vol in fl [As]
Dealt to longleggs [4s]
renegades8 is high with [8s]
renegades8 completes it to 150
fuser81 has 15 seconds left to act
fuser81 raises to 300
kbergner folds
vol in fl folds
longleggs folds
olkkonen folds
jshstoney folds
renegades8 calls 150
*** 4TH STREET ***
Dealt to renegades8 [Ac 6s 8s] [9c]
Dealt to fuser81 [3d] [Jh]
renegades8 bets 150
fuser81 raises to 300
renegades8 raises to 450
ITSnotBINGO sits down
ITSnotBINGO adds 150
ITSnotBINGO is sitting out
fuser81 calls 150
*** 5TH STREET ***
Dealt to renegades8 [Ac 6s 8s 9c] [5h]
Dealt to fuser81 [3d Jh] [7c]
renegades8 bets 300
fuser81 calls 300
*** 6TH STREET ***
Dealt to renegades8 [Ac 6s 8s 9c 5h] [Kd]
Dealt to fuser81 [3d Jh 7c] [2h]
fuser81 bets 300
renegades8 calls 300
*** 7TH STREET ***
Dealt to renegades8 [Ac 6s 8s 9c 5h Kd] [9d]
fuser81 checks
renegades8 checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
fuser81 shows [Qh 6c 3d Jh 7c 2h 5s] 7,6,5,3,2
renegades8 mucks
fuser81 wins the pot (2,875) with 7,6,5,3,2
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2,875 | Rake 0
Seat 1: olkkonen folded on 3rd St.
Seat 2: jshstoney folded on 3rd St.
Seat 3: renegades8 mucked [9d 6s 8s 9c 5h Kd Ac] - 9,8,6,5,A
Seat 4: fuser81 showed [Qh 6c 3d Jh 7c 2h 5s] and won (2,875) with 7,6,5,3,2
Seat 5: kbergner folded on 3rd St.
Seat 6: vol in fl folded on 3rd St.
Seat 8: longleggs folded on 3rd St. |
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jbrennen
Straight Flush
Joined: 16 Aug 2005
Posts: 422
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| Posted: Sat Aug 25, 2007 5:40 pm Post subject: |
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Okay...
3rd street - bring in for the small bring in, don't complete. You don't have a great hand. Of the six other upcards, four of them are cards that would help you draw to a decent hand. You've got a rough 8, with the 8 showing, with a fairly dead draw. As played though, definitely call the raise.
4th street - bet/call. Don't bet/reraise. In a cash game, the reraise might be fine; here you're messing with a bigger stack who obviously loves his hole cards.
5th street - check/call. It's not likely he raised you on 4th street with a 7 under. He's got a better draw.
6th street - folding would not be bad at all. Continuing on at this point is basically betting that your opponent has paired; if he hasn't paired, you're likely drawing dead, and if he has paired, he STILL likely has a better draw than you with a likely draw to a 7, while you're drawing to an 8. In a cash game against a LAG opponent, I might call this hand down. In a tourney situation, it's usually a fold.
7th street - Your opponent had a board lock on you and, IMHO, made a big mistake by not betting. But hey, you got a free showdown. |
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aMurderofCrows
Pair
Joined: 10 Jun 2007
Posts: 28
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| Posted: Sun Aug 26, 2007 2:10 am Post subject: |
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| jbrennen wrote: |
Okay...
3rd street - bring in for the small bring in, don't complete. You don't have a great hand. Of the six other upcards, four of them are cards that would help you draw to a decent hand. You've got a rough 8, with the 8 showing, with a fairly dead draw. As played though, definitely call the raise.
4th street - bet/call. Don't bet/reraise. In a cash game, the reraise might be fine; here you're messing with a bigger stack who obviously loves his hole cards. |
ITSnotBINGO sits down
ITSnotBINGO adds 150
Looks like it was a cash game. In a cash game, this 8 is an autofold on 3rd, IMO. |
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2 high flush
Forum Bounty Hunter
Joined: 03 Nov 2005
Posts: 6253
Location: Hell. Life Hell that is.
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| Posted: Sun Aug 26, 2007 2:16 am Post subject: Re: HORSE MTT Hand |
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| renegades8 wrote: |
| Full Tilt Poker Game #3353048203 (25561565), Table 31 - 150/300 Ante 25 - Limit Razz - 19:06:38 ET - 2007/08/24 |
says MTT in the thread title and its definitely not a cash game. |
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renegades8
Forum Fish
Joined: 26 Nov 2006
Posts: 3402
Location: spewing @ 25NL
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| Posted: Sun Aug 26, 2007 2:05 pm Post subject: Re: HORSE MTT Hand |
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| 2 high flush wrote: |
| renegades8 wrote: |
| Full Tilt Poker Game #3353048203 (25561565), Table 31 - 150/300 Ante 25 - Limit Razz - 19:06:38 ET - 2007/08/24 |
says MTT in the thread title and its definitely not a cash game. |
It was a MTT, and that's what I said in the thread title. All I removed was the buy-in. I don't see what you're getting at? |
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2 high flush
Forum Bounty Hunter
Joined: 03 Nov 2005
Posts: 6253
Location: Hell. Life Hell that is.
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| Posted: Sun Aug 26, 2007 3:09 pm Post subject: |
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| crows said it looked like a cash game, i said it wasnt. |
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renegades8
Forum Fish
Joined: 26 Nov 2006
Posts: 3402
Location: spewing @ 25NL
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| Posted: Sun Aug 26, 2007 3:14 pm Post subject: |
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| 2 high flush wrote: |
| crows said it looked like a cash game, i said it wasnt. |
Oh sorry, I somehow completely missed that post.
| aMurderofCrows wrote: |
| jbrennen wrote: |
Okay...
3rd street - bring in for the small bring in, don't complete. You don't have a great hand. Of the six other upcards, four of them are cards that would help you draw to a decent hand. You've got a rough 8, with the 8 showing, with a fairly dead draw. As played though, definitely call the raise.
4th street - bet/call. Don't bet/reraise. In a cash game, the reraise might be fine; here you're messing with a bigger stack who obviously loves his hole cards. |
ITSnotBINGO sits down
ITSnotBINGO adds 150
Looks like it was a cash game. In a cash game, this 8 is an autofold on 3rd, IMO. |
Just because a player got moved to my table doesn't mean it's a cash game. |
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sgspecial
Flush
Joined: 19 Jan 2006
Posts: 139
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| Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2007 3:52 pm Post subject: |
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| jbrennen wrote: |
4th street - bet/call. Don't bet/reraise. In a cash game, the reraise might be fine; here you're messing with a bigger stack who obviously loves his hole cards. |
Why are you slowing down here JB? The villain has a bigger stack but both players are very deep, and it's a HU pot so hero can't get himself caught in the middle of a raise war on later (big bet) streets if he doesn't have the likely best hand. In some cases you could flat call for deception (like you didn't really have a 98 draw) but that went out the window when hero completed the bring-in on 3rd (bad hero, badddd).
Assuming the villain started with a 3-card 6 or better, hero is about a 58% favorite and should get as much in on 4th st as he can.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/simulate.jsp?g=rz&d=348a4&h1=986a&h2=%286-6-3%29j&h3=&h4=&h5= |
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renegades8
Forum Fish
Joined: 26 Nov 2006
Posts: 3402
Location: spewing @ 25NL
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| Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2007 3:59 pm Post subject: |
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| Thanks a lot for the link, sgspecial! I'll definitely be using that in the future! |
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jbrennen
Straight Flush
Joined: 16 Aug 2005
Posts: 422
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| Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2007 5:47 pm Post subject: |
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| sgspecial wrote: |
| Why are you slowing down here JB? The villain has a bigger stack but both players are very deep... |
I guess I don't think the stacks are quite deep enough here.
All numbers that follow are rough estimates...
Hero started the hand with about 18 big bets. Without reraising 4th street, and figuring that the hand gets bet/called on each of the remaining streets, he's looking at ending up with about 13 big bets if he loses the hand and about 23.5 if he wins.
If Hero reraises 4th street, he's basically risking almost 4% of his stack (0.5 big bets out of 13) if he loses, to add just over 2% to his stack if he wins (0.5 big bets out of 23.5). If Villain caps it on 4th, then Hero is risking almost 8% of his stack if he loses to gain a little more than 4% if he wins.
That's my reasoning for slowing down. I think that risking half a big bet out of 13 to win half a big bet on top of 23.5 is questionable stack management. I don't think reraising 4th is horrible -- I just wonder if it might be +EV with respect to chips but neutral or even slightly -EV with respect to eventual tourney payout. |
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sgspecial
Flush
Joined: 19 Jan 2006
Posts: 139
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| Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:22 am Post subject: |
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| jbrennen wrote: |
That's my reasoning for slowing down. I think that risking half a big bet out of 13 to win half a big bet on top of 23.5 is questionable stack management. I don't think reraising 4th is horrible -- I just wonder if it might be +EV with respect to chips but neutral or even slightly -EV with respect to eventual tourney payout. |
So your issue is not necessarily with the villain's stack size (as long as he's deep enough not to get all-in on this hand), but with incremental value of chips to hero's stack. I agree with a nonlinear EV of chips (cEV) model in a tournament, but there are some discrete value models (like Gigabet's "block" theory) that I think are more accurate than continuous models if used properly. The upshot is, even if hero loses the pot he will not be short stacked and will not have to change his play to ensure his survival, but if he wins the pot he will be one of the big stacks (at least at the table).
I guess the micro question is, how big an equity advantage would you want in this spot to put in a value raise? |
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