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Zophar · Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:09 am Post subject:

I'd fold this hand 90% of the time preflop and probably 95% of the time postflop. However I was completely going by the situation. The number of players involved, the pot size, the aggressor and the action/reaction on every street.

The majority of time, a card is not worth peeling here to begin with. I understand that. But I also was aware of the risk/reward of peeling. There were actually about 30 kill cards(a 7 being one of them) that I was worried about, but with the significant number of hands in play, I figure that number could be reduced by a third. Any kill card comes and I'm basically gone from the hand.

Once the turn peeled I planned on folding. That was until the manner in which the BB bet and UTG called, then the table folded around to me. Their play in the hand lead me to continue.

Thinking that I played it horribly is fine, for me it was completely unique. Had I not been barely getting the pot odds to continue, and if it were against any other players, it would have been trashed immediately.

Also, I'm not advocating playing hands like this by any means. The point was for people to consider all aspects of the story of the hand that they are playing before continuing.

Strasse · Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:15 am Post subject:

Why do you fold this 90% of the time PF? With so many people in the pot, you are getting excellent odds to see the flop with a high only hand. As already stated, if you hit a nice high w/ your hand, there is likely to be no low. I'm curious to hear your reasoning behind this.

DJ Ninjah · Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:25 am Post subject:

I agree with Strasse, in your situation PF, I call with this hand 100% of the time. Folding with it 95% OTF sounds good. I'd have to be tilting to call it though. As stated in my other post you have so few chips here that they are too valuable to piss away here. After you call the flop you are pot committed.

Zophar · Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:41 am Post subject:

Zophar · Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 12:37 pm Post subject:

When reveiwing it yet again, I think the turn is a point where it could be folded, but a case can still be made to call.

On the flop I was getting 17 to 1 odds to make the call and peel a card. When making this call, I'm looking for a 9 10 J Q or K. The 10 J for a set, Q for 2 pr and 9/K for an OESD. With 17 to 1 odds on that draw, I will look it up.

The turn is where it became completely situational. On the turn I'm getting just over 10 to 1 to call, against these 2 specific players, on a draw that I now am looking for a 10 or J for the set. Getting 10 to 1 odds here, I think a call is justifiable for the 4 outs. Granted it's a complete gambool given my stack size, but the size of the pot warrents it.

Even if strictly going by the math, over the long haul, I think the call is realistic.

Had anything else about the situation been different, I fold in several areas.
If I wasn't to the immediate right of the aggressor(who I have info on), I likely fold. I'm able to act last after his action and everyone elses reaction.
If any any less players are involved preflop and on flop, I can't call because of lower pot odds.
If anyone raises the flop I fold.
If anyone raises the turn or anyone else calls following these 2 players, I likely fold.

The sequence of events by the players involved tangled me up in this crazy hand. I know I was lucky, but I feel my read on the hand and players involved put me into the position to get lucky. A calculated chance.

Strasse · Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:17 pm Post subject:

I don't know why you keep counting the jack as an out. Maybe you are looking for one because you feel nobody else has AJ or KJ, but I wouldn't feel comfortable at all by catching a jack. I would much rather catch a queen than a jack. Everyone plays aces in O8, so if anybody else has a jack, its VERY likely they have a better kicker to go along w/ it.

DJ Ninjah · Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:59 pm Post subject:

Your odds aren't as good as you think Z. Even if we assume all 5 other players in the hand have exactly 2 low cards. There are still 14 cards out there to make a low as so there is a 70% chance of a low being made by the end of the hand.

Edit: I also really hate talking about pot odds in terms of X to X when it comes to split pot games. It almost always leads to mistakes. EE (expected equity) is always much better.

Zophar · Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 2:28 pm Post subject:

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