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Checkster · High Card Joined: 14 Nov 2005 Posts: 3 Location: So. Cal.

"Probabilities, Odds, Statistics? Phooey! Pokersites Fixed? Not Likely
Perpetual Bad Luck? ???"

OK, I've got to unload this somewhere, and here�s as good a target as any...
After playing months online, it just "felt" wrong. I was getting sucked out on at what seemed a disproportionate rate. "OK..OK...I'm just remembering the bad beats" I'd tell myself. Finally I needed to know, so I started keeping a record (meticulously, very meticulously) of the heart & soul of No Limit Holdem.
The Showdown..All In...
I tracked one particular type of situation. If I went all in, or called an all in, I logged if I had the best or worst hand when we turned up our cards. And of course logged the final result. This is the defining moment of NLH. Gather and process all the information you have, incomplete as it is. Make a decision and act on it. Watch & wait. Pros & pundits tell you to get your chips in the middle of the table with the best hand. OK. Good.
My results to date: ( I haven�t counted the total games played to compile these results, but I estimate about 65,000 over about 8 months).
Situations played 1054
Best starting hand (at showdown) 735
That's about 70% I start out best. 2 out of 3 times I read the hand right. Don't know what's considered good to the moneymakers, but it seems at the very least a $ winning %.
Total overall wins 431
Doink! That's about 41%. I get run down a lot! Not a little, not some of the time. Sucked out on most of the time. Check these #s.
In the 735 hands where I start out best:
Wins 332
Loses 403
45% wins. Showdown with the best cards, and lose most of them.
An important note...I'm tend to be a tight player. Much tighter than books, blogs and forums recommend. I'm not all in with something like a small pair vs 2 over cards very often. That's usually such a small edge to the pair it's really a coin flip. Don't like to risk all my chips at almost even money. I find better odds (yugh, that word). But I still get run down. I haven't tracked to exact detail (I'm not a complete masochist!), but I estimate I average a 65-70% statistical (eeks! another word) edge when the cards are turned. Trips, top 2 pair, big A or K pair after the flop at the very least. If my estimate is close I should have won about 477.
In the 319 hands when I start worst:
Wins 99
Loses 220
31% wins. Sucking out is not my friend. Well, I'm supposed to lose those. At least this fits the probabilities (last bad word). Interestingly, I've checked the percentages about every 100 hands, and the never varied by more a point or 2. Also, all ins after the river aren't included. If I'm in with the worst of it, that's my fault. These stats started with me wanting to see if I really was getting run down as much as it seemed.

A few more specific #s. (Started tracking after the first couple hundred hands). Results with "premium" hands...don't blink...poker face hands.
A,A - 14 wins, 21 loses
K,K - 16 wins, 22 loses
Q,Q - 8 wins, 24 loses (****)
J,J - 5 wins, 5 loses (?)
A,K - 20 wins, 28 loses
Remember, I play tight. I don't jerk my chips in just cause I see A,A in the hole. I always play the hand. I'm usually in with the best. But **** happens.
Don't get me wrong...this isn't a "woe as me" tale (well, sort of). I certainly don't feel sorry for my self. I love the game. I'll keep playing. In fact I'm finding a game as soon as I post this. I'm an eternal optimist (aren't all gamblers?). Despite all this I'm actually ahead of the game..but not much. Granted I play tiny stakes, and making $ is always great, but it's the playing I can't get away from. I really don't consider myself unlucky...but when I go all in, the other players get lucky!

Can anyone explain how this can be? I can't...

24sooted · Flush Joined: 27 Oct 2005 Posts: 128

dude just so you know, your statistics seem to show that you do, IN FACT, win more often when u have the best hand. You said u had the best hand 70% of the time, and won only 41% -- thats more than half of the 70%, so you win more often than not when u have the BEST HAND, but i guess u dont win any when ur the underdog, either way that sucks man..... interesting

Jaconda78 · Message Board Junkie Joined: 06 Jul 2005 Posts: 4177

Same reply I put to the other post:

Well, first of all, your sample size is TINY. Also, what precisely are you recording? Who had the best hand at the start of the hand, or who had the best hand when the all in occurred (that is, if the flop is TTT and the money went in on the flop, do you consider AT to be the best hand or AA?)? This is a very important difference. However, I must admit, I am very pleased to see somebody at least attempt to show numerical evidence for their claim.

The reason I haven't been posting my own poker tracker stats to refute this type of statement is that I simply don't have enough hands (around 6,000 at FT and 18,000 at party poker).

However, here are MY stats (from party poker, simply because that's where I have more hands logged). I have wins in percents, not numbers, as that's the way poker tracker records it:

AA: 85 times, win%=83.53%
KK: 69 times, win%=79.71%
QQ: 82 times, win%=62.20%
JJ (not a premium hand, by the way): 75 times, win%=64.00%
AKs: 45 times, win%=51.11%
AKo: 162 times, win%=63.58

My sample size is also far, far, FAR too small to use for real analysis, but my numbers are right where they should be. The main problem I have with your numbers (besides not being quite sure what they're recording) is that there's simply not enough of them.

Also, keep in mind - the average winning hand in Hold 'Em is two pair - people tend to vastly overvalue top pair, especially when they hit it with AK.

torgeauxSA · Flush Joined: 26 Jun 2005 Posts: 137

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