AlexScottUK
Straight Flush
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Posts: 416
Location: Isle of Man
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 Posted: Mon Nov 14, 2005 11:36 pm Post subject: A genuinely interesting bad beat |
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This happened in a round of Stud 8 in a mixed game I saw recently.
Player A is all in on sixth street and is holding A-A-4-4-8-7, for aces up with a bad low draw. Player B started with 9-9-8 and now has 9-9-6-6-8-J, for nines up. The relevant folded cards are a nine, a five, and a deuce, plus three face cards.
On the river, Player A catches a high blank - a queen I think. Player B catches the case 9, giving him a full house, nines full of queens. How bad is this beat?
Well, to scoop the pot Player B has to:
a) Catch one of three cards - the two remaining sixes or the one remaining nine - to make a full house for high (no other card will give him a winning high hand).
3 cards out of 34 = 8.82% chance of this occurring (also the chance that Player B will win at least half the pot).
AND
b) Have Player A miss his low draw or bigger full house, which he can make with 3 deuces, 4 treys, 3 fives, 2 sixes and 2 aces (14 cards out of 34).
Player A misses 58.83% of the time.
The probability that Player B will scoop is therefore 5.18%.
I thought this was quite interesting, and a good example of why you shouldn't get involved with medium cards in hi/lo games - with one card to come in this example Player B loses the whole pot over 91% of the time! |
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