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Big Slick x13x · Forum Icon Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 4129 Location: ROK

I've recently started playing a lot of LHE. Right now I'm 6 tabling .25/.50 and had really swingy day. Is this normal to be this swingy? I'm taking a break right now as I'm finally back over even for the day and it was a hell of a grind. I also spotted a pretty large hole in my game that I'm going to read up on.

Please don't tell me these days are standard.

fire_eyes_2k · Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:36 am Post subject:

Well generally no, swings that big don't happen. The lower the limit you play the bigger your swings will be, but that's pretty extreme. I reguarly have +/- 50BB per thousand hands and thats 6-tabling 2/4

mathman1115 · Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 12:13 pm Post subject:

Back when i was playing $1/2, i had two occasions where i won close to 100BB in under a 1000 hand span, and i had three occasions where i lost close to 100BB in a 1000 hand span. All of this was over a 20000 hand span.
I was not multitabling, although i think i played two tables at once occasionally. But i think in general, these streaks are going to happen at these levels. I am sure i had (have) leaks in my game as well, and as time went on during these 20000 hands i think i had plugged at least some of them.

griffinlord · Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 1:37 pm Post subject:

On another forum I read a guy who claims that limit has more variability than NL. Not sure if this is true, but I tend to believe it because folks so often get the right odds to chase in limit.

Anyway....depending on your standard deviation you can expect more or less swingyness. I tend to believe that SD is higher in lower limit games and if you were to run a simulation with an SD in the 12 to 15 BB/100 range and graphed the results you'd often see results like you are getting.

However, by the time you've finished 50,000 or so hands you should be overcoming the variance and see whether your long-term trend is + or -.

monnot · Straight Joined: 23 Mar 2007 Posts: 101

I think if you play good poker at lower levels this will happen. As of right now I only play live but it seems any stake I have played at so far you will get 4 people to the turn. In NL you can raise 4x bb and not get crap calls (usually) but in low limit they love to see the flop and you can't stop them. I believe the variance is higher in limit and the swings can be bigger. I'm taking a break after losing the last 4 times i've played.

IABoomer · Moderator Joined: 29 Oct 2006 Posts: 3914

At the lower limits, I don't think 100BB/700 hands is anywhere close to impossible or even improbable. You'll find lots of players chasing, playing odd hands in odd positions leading to higher variance in the game, especially if you end up at a table with 3-4 of these maniacs.

It's fairly easy to ride it out against one, but against three or four, someone's always sucking out against you. Things like semi-bluffing draws go out the window, because they won't fold if they have any part of the board.

Good luck. I feel your pain. I've had days like that and they're not fun at all.

Big Slick x13x · Forum Icon Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 4129 Location: ROK

I think PT said my SD is about 15BB / 100. Today was much worse then yesterday as I didn't have a huge upswing at the end. Here is my entire .25/.50 for the month.

I hate this game sometimes. The only hand that I'm still making money on consistently is AA and AK.

Moshiach · Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2007 1:29 am Post subject: Re: Swings

Big Slick x13x · Forum Icon Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 4129 Location: ROK

ridic x · Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2007 4:02 pm Post subject:

fire_eyes_2k · Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2007 5:02 pm Post subject:

Random and irrelevant question here: Does BB in your graph refer to Big Blinds or Big Bets? I always prefer to think of Big Bets in LHE.

If there were no large swings in LHE, the Bankroll Management rules owuldnt suggest keeping 300 - 500 BB in your bankroll would they. But hey, at least youre in the black!

Big Slick x13x · Forum Icon Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 4129 Location: ROK

Of course it's Big Bets Smile

. I wouldn't have it any other way. After 6200 hands I'm showing a 30c profit. So annoying. I only played about 600 hands today for a 4BB loss which is sadly refreshing. This is the most poker I've played in a short time in well over a year and this is the first biggish downswing I've had in LHE.

bigwheell · Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2007 11:31 pm Post subject:

At least you have rakeback to help offset the losing sessions...Any limit player who plays a lot can show you a graph worse than that over the short term...

This is normal.

On another note,

I have starting playing a little NL 6max. I am tired of the grind too with limit...

2.5k hands so far and up $147 at 25nl.

fire_eyes_2k · Posted: Wed Jul 18, 2007 1:18 pm Post subject:

Here's my graph for July to date, swings go up and down as you can see:

And here's an upswing. Not as dramatic as slick's, but +87BB in 900 hands is damn good.

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