Online Poker Forum - Razz odds question

drizzler · Pair Joined: 06 May 2006 Posts: 45

The odds chart in the back of Super System says that if you start with 3-2-A you will make showdown with an 8-low or better 48.27% of the time. Are the odds the same for any three-card 8-or-better starting hand? In other words, are the drawing odds the same with 3-2-A as they are with 8-7-6 that you will make showdown with an 8-low or better?

Similarly, the odds are 71.32% that 4-3-2-A will complete to an 8-low or better at showdown. But how about 8-3-2-A or 7-6-5-2? My feeble brain tells me these hands should have similar odds to complete to an 8-low or better at showdown, but is that really correct?

Driz

jbrennen · Straight Flush Joined: 16 Aug 2005 Posts: 422

Your brain is on the right track... Without any information about other hands in the deal, A-2-3 and 6-7-8 have the same chance to make an 8-low by showdown.

But those numbers totally ignore the effect of the other exposed cards that you see. If you start with A-2-3, each exposed card that you see which is not a 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8, increases your chance to make an 8 low. Each exposed card that you see which is a 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8, decreases your chance to make an 8 low.

Since you will always have at least one opponent, you'll always see at least one door card, so the unadjusted odds are never actually correct, although they may be useful as a starting point.

drizzler · Pair Joined: 06 May 2006 Posts: 45

Yes, for the sake of this argument I was ignoring the exposed cards. I simply wanted to know if the odds calculations were the same regardless of the ranks of the cards in the draw. I also ignored the fact that while 8-7-6-5 and 4-3-2-A might have the same chance of completing an 8-low, they don't have the same chance of making the best hand.

Driz

Online Poker Forum at Full Tilt Poker