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PARASOFT
Pair
Joined: 14 Dec 2006
Posts: 42
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 Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 8:56 am Post subject: Brick on 4th |
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You start with 3 cards to 7 and 2 players(including you) see 4th street, and you catch a face card, and your oppponent catches a baby and comes out betting.
What you should do?
a) If it was NOT raised preflop
b) If it was raised preflop
c) If if was double raised preflop
I'm triying to figure this out... Sklansky suggests folding but I'm very suspicious about this. Your EV(pot odds) definetely suggests calling but I'm not sure about the implied odds and reverse implied odds... Is there a way to estimate them? |
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yankeys316
Pair
Joined: 26 Feb 2007
Posts: 49
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| Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 12:06 pm Post subject: |
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Without knowing position or the other up cards, it's hard to make a 100% solid decision, but I would usually fold in this situation.
A. You're probably in a situation where you have to catch well two of the next three cards where your opponent has to only catch once.
B. Furthermore, you're in a situation where you almost have to give up if fifth street isn't helpful.
I would call a small percentage of the time (not more than 20%) just to keep your opponent honest, or if I had a J4 or better showing, I might even consider reraising a loose or aggressive opponent. |
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jbrennen
Straight Flush
Joined: 16 Aug 2005
Posts: 422
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| Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 12:31 pm Post subject: |
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My opinion... If there was a completion and a call on 3rd street, neither calling nor folding is a huge mistake. The difference in EV is probably fairly minor. I think that with marginal hands, 5th street is generally the big decision point, once the bet size doubles.
One consideration is that if you consistently fold hands on 4th street in the situation you describe, a smart player could pick up on it and call your 3rd street completions with weak hands with a nice looking door card, figuring that he has a good chance to steal on 4th if you brick.
On the other hand, if you show that you can occasionally make that 4th street laydown, you may entice that smart player to loosen up his starting hand requirements a bit. And you should never complain about an opponent doing that.
So it's probably best to walk a balance between calling and folding there.
Trying to use implied odds at this stage is probably not too useful unless you have a really good "book" on your opponent -- you need to know what range of hands he'll complete with (or call a completion) on 3rd street, depending on how many low cards were still to act behind him, and how he is likely to bet on subsequent streets. Too many unknowns to give an actual number to the implied odds. |
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Foxy_Boxer
Straight
Joined: 05 Jan 2007
Posts: 105
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| Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2007 8:19 pm Post subject: Re: Brick on 4th |
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| PARASOFT wrote: |
You start with 3 cards to 7 and 2 players(including you) see 4th street, and you catch a face card, and your oppponent catches a baby and comes out betting.
What you should do?
a) If it was NOT raised preflop
b) If it was raised preflop
c) If if was double raised preflop
I'm triying to figure this out... Sklansky suggests folding but I'm very suspicious about this. Your EV(pot odds) definetely suggests calling but I'm not sure about the implied odds and reverse implied odds... Is there a way to estimate them? |
You can "test" the implied odds by adding a bet for every subsequent street. After a raise on 3rd, there are probably about 4 SBs in the pot. If your opponent (or you) makes 1 bet on every street (likely), he's putting in 1+2+2+2=7, in terms of SBs, and you're putting in a bet to match him each time. So you must pay 7 SBs to win his 7 plus the 4 already in there (11 total). So even though it looks like you're getting 5:1 on a call on 4th, if you stay to the river it's really more like 11:7. This of course doesn't tell the whole story, since there is a chance a street will be checked, or raised, and a chance that your opponent actually paired on 4th and isn't really ahead of you at all. It also doesn't take into account the times you fold on 5th, 6th, or 7th, or the (fewer) times your opponent will fold on those streets. I think in general Sklansky is probably right, though I'm not fully certain of the reasons why. I know this isn't really conclusive, but hopefully it helps some. |
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