Online Poker Forum - Folding a full house

Themistocles · Two Pair Joined: 19 Mar 2006 Posts: 75

What would you do here?

Full Tilt Poker Game #2227823926: Table Paseo Del Mar - $0.25/$0.50 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo - 2:03:16 ET - 2007/04/17
Seat 1: Themistocles ($47.40)
Seat 3: delcharger ($15.50)
Seat 4: tallcooldj32 ($61.05), is sitting out
Seat 5: BAV1 ($50)
Seat 6: HOWAMIUP ($29.55)
Seat 7: captainpants ($20.50)
Seat 8: allin agin ($20)
delcharger posts the small blind of $0.25
BAV1 posts the big blind of $0.50
allin agin posts $0.50
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Themistocles [Kd Ah Kc 2c]
HOWAMIUP folds
captainpants folds
allin agin checks
Themistocles raises to $1
delcharger folds
BAV1 calls $0.50
allin agin calls $0.50
*** FLOP *** [As 2s Ac]
BAV1 bets $3.25
allin agin calls $3.25
Themistocles calls $3.25
*** TURN *** [As 2s Ac] [2d]
BAV1 checks
allin agin checks
Themistocles bets $13
BAV1 calls $13
allin agin calls $13
*** RIVER *** [As 2s Ac 2d] [3s]
BAV1 bets $32.75, and is all in
allin agin calls $2.75, and is all in

So here's what I thought:
BAV1 may have A-3 in his hole cards. With his bet on the flop, I put him on A-2, and thats why i didn't raise him back. If I was right,only a King could have put me ahead in the hand - and any other card matching one of his hole cards would have made lose my entire 50$. So I thought about just calling.

when the 2 came on the turn, he didnt bet - so I instantly excluded the possibility of him having A-2. That's why I betted the pot.

However, with the 3 of spades on the board and his instant pot-sized bet, I wasnt too sure that I had the best high hand...
1) If he actually had A-3, then I was beaten. I was also beaten if he had the amazing 4-5 of spades for a straight flush. What's more , I had no low with the given board.
2) If he had 4-5 (but not spades) he had the nut low.

I was certain than one of the above statements was correct. So ,should I call, I was risking 30$ to win only half the pot (at best).

That was my analysis, so I decided to fold.

What's your opinion on this hand and my analysis?

Thank you Smile

sixandfour · Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2007 11:58 am Post subject:

85.50
On the flop, you can safely put BAV on at least an ace, as he led out on the flop. At the turn, it is unlikely a flush draw would have stayed in, not knowing if a flush would even be good. Allin seems to be along for the ride (low draw? flush? wrap?) on some kind of draw. Obviously, with a straight or flush possible, he wouldn't push them in with only trips, so you would have to put him on a boat. So our villain is sitting on A2, A3, or concievably 22. I find 22 unlikely, as he is far too easily beat to risk his chips.

This leaves you 3 potential situations:
1)he has A3, you lose
2)he has A2, you chop the high(and probably get quartered by a low)
3) He's bluffing... always gotta account for that.

If he's on a bluff, its pretty much a suicide run. allin is pot commited, and you have a fair chunk in as well, and have taken the lead on the turn, indicating a very strong hand.

to make a long story short (too late), very nice laydown.

sixandfour · Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2007 12:04 pm Post subject:

oops
guess he doesnt have 22, just noticed that. my bad.

Strasse · Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2007 3:15 pm Post subject:

For starters, I wouldn't minraise it preflop. I would also raise on the flop, because splitting the pot if he has A2 is a lot better than getting quartered when the other guy hits his low. As for the fold on the river, that's a very tough decision. I don't think that I would be able to get away from it.

dumwaldo · Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2007 5:12 pm Post subject:

instacall

Themistocles · Two Pair Joined: 19 Mar 2006 Posts: 75

dumwaldo · Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2007 9:01 am Post subject:

Themistocles · Two Pair Joined: 19 Mar 2006 Posts: 75

So , according to you, I should make a call with which I was getting (at best) my money back without any significant gain (compared to the money I would have invested in the pot) - and since I didnt make that call I shouldnt be playing cash games ? ?

Shocked

I totally respect your opinion - it's just that when it comes to "calling a bet", I want my call to be profitable in the long run. I dont see how I could profit by putting my entire stack in the pot, with a hope of just getting it back...

EDIT : By the way, he could also be holding A-2 with 2 low cards, so again I would have been quartered. You can add all these combinations to the ones you mentioned....

southernyank · High Card Joined: 28 Apr 2007 Posts: 4

I put him on A345 perhaps with flush, perhaps not. I'm positive about the nut low though. I don't think you're pot committed when you know half of it is not coming to you.... Good laydown.

I think the hand explains each bet, but I would have called to be sure.

(I lose a lot of bankrolls this way.)

Someday I'll be a good enough player to lay down a hand like that.

lazzyatwork · High Card Joined: 23 May 2007 Posts: 1

i think a pot sized re-raise on the flop would have takin' down the pot if not you would probably be heads up, go all in on the turn, and push he off his low draw. after all you hav the nut on the turn.
i tkink bad play put you in a bad spot.

Strasse · Posted: Wed May 23, 2007 5:26 pm Post subject:

It's been more than a month, post the f*ckin result.

Themistocles · Two Pair Joined: 19 Mar 2006 Posts: 75

Hey all, I apologize for the delay in posting the result....

Villain had actually A-3 and 2 cr@ppy cards..

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