Online Poker Forum - What would you do with AA with this flop and situation?

leighs · Four of a Kind Joined: 14 Sep 2005 Posts: 301

I'm curious about what other people would do in this situation.

It's in the early stages.

FullTiltPoker Game #255215466: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (1640905), Table 1 - 25/50 - No Limit Hold'em - 9:57:25 ET - 2005/10/17
Seat 1: rckfrdman69 (920)
Seat 3: Alaskan Kid (2,500)
Seat 4: cornishbilly (3,060)
Seat 5: jromaz (515)
Seat 6: skunkjunky (1,260)
Seat 7: leighs (1,420)
Seat 8: sulasula (2,415)
Seat 9: HammerTime32 (1,410)
cornishbilly posts the small blind of 25
jromaz posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #3
Dealt to leighs [Ad As]
skunkjunky raises to 150
leighs raises to 300
sulasula calls 300
HammerTime32 folds
rckfrdman69 folds
Alaskan Kid folds
cornishbilly folds
jromaz folds
skunkjunky calls 150

It's a 3 way pot going to the flop. I thought of hands both other players might have. I thought the initial raiser could have any reasonably strong hand to raise from UTG and then the pot odds would force them to call but they didn't reraise. I thought they would have something like a good A or a medium pair. I thought the player who cold called most likely had a pair in the range of QQ to 88 or possibly AK. I would expect a reraise from AA or KK.

*** FLOP *** [Qh Th 6h]
skunkjunky bets 960, and is all in

The flop of 3 hearts is awful and the initial raiser goes all in. Should I go all in or fold? When the initial raiser goes all in I think they have a draw to the nut flush with the Ah and another card T or better. I can't see them doing this with a made hand that would fit into their likely starting hands. Someone with 2 low hearts might push here but I don't think this player would have raised UTG with that. If they have the Ah then the only hands that the caller would continue with would be QQ or TT (of their likely starting hands).

I decide to push because it's a big pot and I think I'm getting the right price. The caller folds and the initial raiser has exactly what I thought and they make their flush on the turn and I'm crippled.

leighs raises to 1,120, and is all in
sulasula folds
leighs shows [Ad As]
skunkjunky shows [Jc Ah]
Uncalled bet of 160 returned to leighs
*** TURN *** [Qh Th 6h] [9h]
*** RIVER *** [Qh Th 6h 9h] [3s]
leighs shows a pair of Aces
skunkjunky shows a flush, Ace high
skunkjunky wins the pot (2,895) with a flush, Ace high

Was my decision +EV and would you make it at this point in the sng?

rob14136 · Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:54 pm Post subject: re:

Odds of flopping a flush are about 1%. I can see it's early in the tournament and you probably don't know a ton about this player. At this level for a buyin, expect just about anything, so I say go with your gut.

I would fold them though most of the time. They are just aces and big hands can get people into big trouble if they are played wrong or get unlucky against. You would still have a very reasonable stack to sit back and wait for a better hand. The blinds are small, I wouldn't worry too much about taking your chances on a guess that you may or may not have him beat. It's a decision for all your chips and if you are dead wrong, you are basically looking at finishing OTM, which isn't why we play poker now is it? Slightly better than coin flip odds, personally, I want to be a favorite and have much better than a 60 / 40 chance of being in or out of the tournament.

However, most people would call, because you could put him on a hand like Ah,Qd, Ah, Ks or Kh,Qc, which of course he may be "drawing" to the nuts, but you are technically, still ahead if up against those heads, but not by much.

*** LAST DITCH THOUGHT *** Even the long shot draw of being against a flush and catching runner runner for the full house, which WE ALL KNOW, happens all the damn time on FTP because the site is just soooooooooooo rigged to make that kinda stuff happen to ALL the people trying to "be professionals".

[ /sarcasm ]

ephro · Two Pair Joined: 20 Jun 2005 Posts: 52

KGBlovesOreos · Posted: Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:20 am Post subject:

(this is my thinking before i looked at the results of the hand)

i would have to fold here... i think the person who went all in may have flopped a tiny flush and wanted to protect his hand from another heart on the board by going all in... if this wasn't the case, he might have made a donkey move like this w/ something like Ah-x or just a pair of queens...

in any case, i would fold here b/c if you get your money in, the best situation you could hope for is an almost even-money situation... i would fold here and pick a better spot...

(my thoughts after looking at the hand)

well, he made a donkey move, better luck next time!

posman5 · High Card Joined: 01 Oct 2005 Posts: 3

If I may, the problem began with you min raise before the flop. Got to run out the AJo if at all possible.

bambrewer · High Card Joined: 20 Oct 2005 Posts: 2

It mostly depends on the feel of that sng. i find a lot of times a player making that move will be trying to protect his pair and is a fraid of someone hitting the flush not betting the nut flush draw or the small flush. If its early in the sng its tough to say but i would have read that to be a high pair. From his side why bet it all on a draw it was the wrong move for him. Second from your side if they check or small bet you have to call with the aces or re raise all in and it was doubtful he was going to fold the flush draw any way. the only change i would have made considering the sng play on this site ws go allin preflop to isolate preflop and make him call the pot was big enough preflop to make it worth it and hopefully they make the right move and fold the aj having you for kk qq or aa. but either way i make the call given your place.

Jaconda78 · Message Board Junkie Joined: 06 Jul 2005 Posts: 4179

byamamoto1 · Bay Area Bidness Joined: 11 Aug 2005 Posts: 2317

I think i may have come over the top with another raise before the flop, possibly push all-in or at least make a substantial raise. I don't know whether or not the guy with A-Jo would have called, but it would have been a tough one for him to make. Also with AA it's harder to play in multi-way pots, and i usually like to isolate against a player. You had enough chips to force everyone out and make 700 chips with little risk. Even if you get called you're still in great shape against most any hand.

As for your call post-flop... i don't think it was a bad one. it could have been dangerous that he hit a set but that was up to you based on how he played his hands. i probably would have made the call as well had it i been in the situation.

leighs · Four of a Kind Joined: 14 Sep 2005 Posts: 301

Why do I want AJo to fold preflop when AA has 92.3% equity in a heads up situation against this hand?

I agree that I don't want a multi-way pot with AA. In this case, the raise to 300 was not enough to prevent someone else from calling. I can't see myself raising to more than 450 in this situation.

I find it interesting that no one mentioned the presence of the third person who is yet to act after the flop.

Based on my read of their hands, this is what PokerStove says my equity is after the flop:

Board: Qh Th 6h

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.3878 % 40.05% 00.34% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 41.7614 % 41.25% 00.51% { AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhTc, AhTd, AhTs }
Hand 3: 17.8508 % 17.65% 00.20% { QQ-88, AKs, AKo }

I would be getting ~2.73:1 in a 3 way pot if the player behind me calls or ~2:1 on a coin flip if they don't (if my math is correct).

Of course, my read could be totally wrong.

I would usually fold in this situation because I don't like to take risks early.

Pacey Witter · Two Pair Joined: 18 Jul 2005 Posts: 69

i think the odds of flopping a flush are actually 5%, no that thats any good anyway, but i read that somewhere, when u hold 2 suited cards in the hole u will flop a flush only 5% of the time. ofcourse if everyone online knew these odds, maybe there would be a heck of a lot less players calling preflop raises with junk like 92 or 47suited...(lol)

BOYNAMEDSUE · Moderator Joined: 27 Jun 2005 Posts: 9111 Location: Mypos

I'd start by raising more pre-flop. Not a fan of the minimum raise.

If you thought he had just the A of hearts, than good call. He will only make his flush 1/3 of the time.

But overall, I'd probably fold here. He could also be protecting a set.

BOYNAMEDSUE · Moderator Joined: 27 Jun 2005 Posts: 9111 Location: Mypos

I think it's 2-3%.

guitarguy178 · Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2005 10:10 pm Post subject:

I have to go with the group here and say a larger raise before the flop was needed. You don't really want to get the A J out of the hand being that you are a big favorite, but you want to get paid. Once I read that he went all in after the flop I knew he had either Ah Jx or Ah Kx. If he had a made hand like a small flush i think you would have seen a check raise. Trips is possible but I doubt it since he didn't reraise preflop. After the flop it was about a coin flip, cash game I would say call it, but early in a tournament you have to lay that down. It's not worth risking your whole stack on a 50-50.

leighs · Four of a Kind Joined: 14 Sep 2005 Posts: 301

I will raise more preflop next time.

I usually do raise more but I had seen this player open raise and then fold to a reraise already and I wanted them to call since I had AA. I thought since I made it 6x the BB to stay in the hand that more callers would be unlikely but I was wrong.

A mininum raise would have only made it 250 since the 1st raise was 100. I say that only because I didn't just click the raise button but thought about the amount that I wanted to bet and picked 300 as a good number.

Anyway, I agree with the majority and will raise more preflop next time and should have folded on the flop.

Funkay Flex · Straight Flush Joined: 22 Oct 2005 Posts: 487 Location: VA

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