Online Poker Forum - What would you do with AA with this flop and situation?

leighs · Four of a Kind Joined: 14 Sep 2005 Posts: 301

The chance of flopping a flush when you hold 2 suited cards is 0.84%. This is in Table XXVI of Super System.

Also, this is pretty easy to figure out.

There are 11 of the suit remaining in the 50 cards left in the deck.

# of 3 card combinations of the suit = 11!/3!(11-3)! = 165

Total # of flops = 50!/3!(50-3)! = 19600

165/19600 = .008418

OR the easy way:

11/50*10/49*9/48 = .008418

UrbanMeyer1 · Posted: Wed Oct 26, 2005 12:05 am Post subject:

Don't ever min raise. Make it 450 to go, or just call to disguise your hand. Very easy play from the flop, get in w/ the best hand like you did. If he has a pair plus a draw well then you're even money, but your line postflop is fine.

iuz the old · Posted: Wed Oct 26, 2005 12:44 am Post subject:

This is a pretty clear fold in my book as you are still in good shape.
Turn this thing around for a minute and look at it from his point of view. You just came over the top of his utg raise - he knows (or should know) you have a big pair and three hearts hit on the flop. He either has the nut flush draw or a set of QQs or TTs and is going to war. I think the set possibility is very real as QQs or esp TTs would not necessarily reraise/put you all in pre flop. God knows what the guy behind you has but if anything thats a further argument for folding as he might be the one with the set - he would want to see the flop with QQs or TTs after an utg raise followed by an utg+1 reraise.
I think your pre flop reraise should be 3x the original bet to discourage crap from calling while getting more chips in the middle for a pot you will be taking down on the flop the vast majority of the time. In S&Gs when you get a hand you need to push it hard all the way as getting big stacked is the key to winning these things so dont get coy with big pairs Wink

There are not many flops that your AAs hate but this is one of them. Two broadways, three suited and two opponents at least one of whom loves it.
Incidently if you were first to act would you bet into this flop? and if so how much?

UrbanMeyer1 · Posted: Wed Oct 26, 2005 3:44 pm Post subject:

Absolutely ludacris to throw away this hand if you want to make money over time. You guys insist on figuring out the only hands that beat our Hero, hero is ahead more often than not by far, especiall in a 10+1. In a 10+1, the leader could easily have TP w/ no draw at all protecting his hand. It's an absolute travesty to fold this hand.

iuz the old · Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2005 10:15 pm Post subject:

Urban I have to disagree that this is a moneymaker over time as you seem to be dwelling on the one hand (besides a bluff) that we dominate at this point. I am an aggressive player who gets cracked with more than his share of big pairs but in a situation like this I believe we lose this hand against two opponents more often than not which would make it not a money maker over time.

UrbanMeyer1 · Posted: Fri Oct 28, 2005 6:53 pm Post subject: Re:

JetsFan28 · Royal Flush Joined: 19 Oct 2005 Posts: 799 Location: NY

good move, its tough to flop a flush, u got unlucky on turn. i woulda done same thing post flop.

SKS_Poker · Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2005 4:05 pm Post subject:

Some of the odds you're speaking of is a difference between flopping a flush, getting two to a flush (or three if you have only one of that suit in your hand) and making a flush from preflop to river.

The odds of making a flush by the river from a preflop situation with two suited cards in the pocket is about 5.7% (16 to 1)

The odds of making a flush after the flop when you have four total of your suit (whether it is two in the hole or one in the hole with three on the flop) is about 35% (1.85 to 1)

The odds of flopping a flush when you have two suited cards in the pocket is about .84% (118 to 1)

Iwineverypot · Flush Joined: 21 Aug 2005 Posts: 131

If you were to fold in this situation u might as well go afk and see how long you last until you're blinded out.

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