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deadmoney314

Villain 23/16/3.2

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
6 players

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 6h 6s
2 folds, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, CO calls.

Flop: 3d 7d 4h (4.5SB, 2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, Hero calls.

Turn: ad (6.25BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: 4d (6.25BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero ??

asfispimp · Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 12:13 am Post subject:

even though you have 7:1 youre beat for sure. All you can beat is a bluff. However, if youre obsessive about pot odds, then call. Remember, pot odds dont justify giving people your money

IABoomer · Moderator Joined: 29 Oct 2006 Posts: 3912

The way it played out, it seems like he's got an overpair to the board, didn't like the ace on the turn, but when you don't bet the turn then check the river, he figures he's good. I don't think you'll be right about winning this hand often enough to be profitable.

deadmoney314 · Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 1:02 am Post subject:

I am obsessive about pot odds but I think we can confidently get away here because we can be >~88% positive we are beat. I thought I would give everyone a chance to explain thoroughly why. I hope no one missed that there are 4 Diamond

on the board now too.

This is just an excercise. And if I were to spend one more BB it would be b/f and not c/c--in any case I felt c/f was top of my list.

Personally I felt villain had an A with no Diamond

. These stats in the CO would have capped preflop with an overpair which is why I assume the A more than anything else.

bigwheell · Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 9:16 am Post subject:

I agree with the A in his hand...AJ or A10 maybe.

He may have been afraid of a checkraise with his weak A on the turn when the flop betting was capped. That would explain the turn check and river bet.

He could have had a middle PP like 99 or 1010 maybe as well.

good fold...

fire_eyes_2k · Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 12:30 pm Post subject:

Well I think I'm more inclined to go for the middle PP, and i'm going to go for 88 or 99. TT may have capped preflop, 88 and 99 fit better imo. I don't really buy the ace, as after capping the flop, surely you would have called a turn bet and not been scared by it.

Nice fold though, there's nothing you can beat.

deadmoney314 · Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 2:21 pm Post subject:

I really can't see 88 or 99 not capping preflop with those stats, especially against me. I look at HH tonight of similar situations and see if 88+ ever slows down pf from the CO (with these type of stats)

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