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dodge these
Straight Flush
Joined: 21 Jun 2006
Posts: 457
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 Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 5:50 am Post subject: What is going on in their mind? |
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This is not a bad beat post, I really would like ot know what someone like tsakali would be thinking cause I have seen similar plays before.
** Game ID 1151654339 starting - 2007-01-20 03:19:35
** Six Seaters [Omaha] (1.00|2.00 Pot Limit - Cash Game) Real Money
- moreZ sitting in seat 1 with $699.66
- playin_poker sitting in seat 2 with $644.45
- SEM123 sitting in seat 3 with $147.00
- tsakali sitting in seat 4 with $93.90
- tommyburman sitting in seat 5 with $38.03
- dagget777 sitting in seat 6 with $112.70 [Dealer]
moreZ posted the small blind - $1.00
playin_poker posted the big blind - $2.00
** Dealing card to playin_poker: Ace of Hearts, 6 of Spades, 6 of Clubs, Ace of Clubs
SEM123 folded
tsakali called - $2.00
tommyburman folded
dagget777 folded
moreZ raised - $8.00
playin_poker raised - $26.00
tsakali called - $26.00
moreZ called - $26.00
** Dealing the flop: Ace of Diamonds, 7 of Clubs, Jack of Diamonds
moreZ checked
playin_poker bet - $78.00
tsakali went all-in - $67.90
moreZ called - $78.00
** Dealing the turn: King of Diamonds
moreZ checked
playin_poker checked
** Dealing the river: Queen of Clubs
moreZ checked
playin_poker checked
moreZ shows: Queen of Spades, 8 of Clubs, Ace of Spades, Jack of Spades
playin_poker shows: Ace of Hearts, 6 of Spades, 6 of Clubs, Ace of Clubs
tsakali shows: 3 of Diamonds, 10 of Diamonds, 5 of Hearts, 9 of Hearts
playin_poker wins $20.20 from side pot 1
tsakali wins $278.70 from the main pot
End of game 1151654339 |
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Kloaked Spirit
Royal Flush
Joined: 03 Nov 2005
Posts: 869
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| Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 4:08 pm Post subject: |
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"I have 4 cards and *great* odds to play any hand?"
I guess that's what the thought process is. |
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Shumkoolie
Pair
Joined: 30 Oct 2006
Posts: 30
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| Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 4:15 pm Post subject: |
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Here's what I think.
Preflop:
tsakali has a couple of connectors, and a possible diamond flush draw, not very strong, but willing to lay down the $26 to call your re-raise and moreZ's original raise up. He's likely putting you on Kings or Aces based on the re-raise.
He's got position for the remainder of the hand, so advantage tsakali.
Postflop:
Hits a 4 flush (with 3rd nut flush draw), and has odds to hit a flush, and probably doesn't put you or moreZ on a draw based on his calling you. There's no possible straight or royal flush to beat him, very slim chance of someone getting a backdoor boat on him.
He hits, as it turns out, second nut flush on the turn (only a suited Queen will beat him), the two of you check, and the river doesn't make the boat a possibility anymore, so he's pretty confident that he's tripled up, although he's likely sweating it out a little. LOL!!!
When I first read the post, I thought his play was a little crazy, but the more I think about it, the more I thought it was not a bad time to make the move he did. If he does play like that normally, he'll experience wide variances in his chip stacks. He was a little bit fortunate that he made his hand.
I feel that the fact that he had position after tommyburman and dagget777 folded made this play possible.
I think one could do far worse than that, but he probably likes to gamble. |
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Kloaked Spirit
Royal Flush
Joined: 03 Nov 2005
Posts: 869
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| Posted: Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Shumkoolie wrote: |
Here's what I think.
Preflop:
tsakali has a couple of connectors, and a possible diamond flush draw, not very strong, but willing to lay down the $26 to call your re-raise and moreZ's original raise up. He's likely putting you on Kings or Aces based on the re-raise.
He's got position for the remainder of the hand, so advantage tsakali. |
I disagree. What type of flop is villain really going to expect to see that helps him? A flopped made hand or trips? At this point he cannot be too confident that any flush draw he gets is that good, and his straight draw potential is pretty bad too. The smallish stack he has makes bluff potential pretty tough so he's almost forced to hit decently or fold, regardless of position.
| Shumkoolie wrote: |
Postflop:
Hits a 4 flush (with 3rd nut flush draw), and has odds to hit a flush, and probably doesn't put you or moreZ on a draw based on his calling you. There's no possible straight or royal flush to beat him, very slim chance of someone getting a backdoor boat on him. |
If he really put this guy on AAxx, then he knows hero just hit top set. There's no backdoor boat draw. If you put him on KKxx, then the higher flush draw is still probable. You could place moreZ with the possibility of having a draw of some type though, since all he did was check and check/calling is still an option. All that being said, with this flop it's pretty reasonable to believe that his flush draw + gutshot is good enough of the time to see the final two cards. So I feel the post-flop play is justified.
I just don't think villain will see a flop this kind to him (or flops where he can move people off a pot) often enough to justify calling off nearly 1/3rd of his stack PF. Plus after calling that much of his stack off, he'll have a hard time pushing people out when he shoves at any random garbage on the flop. |
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