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bigwheell · Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2006 11:36 am Post subject: Flush draws

This is just a question for you all out there to think about...and state your opinion about how much of a -EV play you think this is over the long run.

I know that I will chase a flopped 4 flush heads up on the turn when I am not getting the correct odds to call anymore...

I always have the correct odds preflop and almost always on the flop betting, but many times I lose the correct odds to call the turn bet to see the river...

How much of a leak do you think this is???

I noticed this discrepancy when I was looking over PT stats for my suited and unsuited starting cards, and started thinking about my play

bigwheell · Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2006 11:41 am Post subject:

I know in the world of the micro and small stakes donk, calling down with a 4 flush is a no brainer as I get river flushed all the time with Q9s and K4s by the idiots...But how much is this a losing proposition over the long run???

IABoomer · Moderator Joined: 29 Oct 2006 Posts: 3912

In a fixed limit game, I'd say it's a pretty big leak because your odds of hitting your flush and getting paid off on it are pretty small. When that river flush card hits, odds are your opponent is going to check to you and make a crying call for one more bet with his trips, straight, 2 pair, etc. So, the few times you make your flush you won't make up the bets you chased with and missed all the previous times.

ridic x · Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2006 2:45 pm Post subject:

dmoore1998 · Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2006 2:56 pm Post subject:

How are you not getting odds to call the turn when it gets heads up? You only need to get 3-4 to 1 on your money to call. If it's heads up that means you aren't getting stuck between raisers. Is everyone limping preflop, checking the flop, then betting the turn? That's about the only way you're not going to get the odds to call the turn.

Examples: (we'll just say the blinds are playing whether it be a full table or heads up, this creates the weakest pot odds so it will give us a worst case scenario....5/10 game to make the numbers nice and round)

1. You both limp preflop (10 in the pot). both check the flop. he bets 10 on the turn, you're getting 2-1 to call and fold because you have improper odds.

2. You both limp preflop (10 in the pot). He bets 5 on the flop and you call (20 in pot). He bets 10 on the turn so you're getting 3-1 which isn't too far off, and you can probably get one bet out if you hit the river which is enough implied odds that it makes it a pretty flat EV situation so you can basically do whatever you feel like and it doesn't make much difference.

Other than those 2 situations you're always going to have odds heads-up. If it's raised pre-flop then the pot is almost always going to be big enough especially if it's not a purely heads up match and there is a little in the pot from blinds or people who enter pre-flop then fold the flop. So really situation one is the only one that's clearly not giving you proper odds to call the turn, and if you really want to chase then just bet the flop (you might take it down there and you're manufacturing pot odds later on while you're still putting your money in on the flop with good odds).

IABoomer · Moderator Joined: 29 Oct 2006 Posts: 3912

Ridic brings up a good point. I did make the assumption we were discussing a table of multiple players, but just being heads up with one opponent. In a fixed heads-up situation, you're playing the player and playing for fold equity more than the cards, and representing bigger with the flush draw becomes a whole different scenario.

bigwheell · Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2006 8:07 pm Post subject:

I am talking either 6max or 9max where you are getting 4 to 1 with you call preflop...And then HU on the flop betting to the river.

Dmoore stated my thoughts on this...

Getting 3-1 on the flush is not a correct +EV play with a flush draw heads up...At least according to the books. Maybe looking at implied odds this is an accecptable play over the long run.

Others thoughts???

Riddim · Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2006 11:34 pm Post subject:

Well, unless we just checked our BB with some small suited cards after one limp, we probably have some chance of winning if we make a pair as well. I usually like to play my good draws pretty fast in HU pots, since there'll usually be a pretty good amount of fold equity added when I do. This also tends to build the pot to a point where I'm very rarely getting incorrect odds once it's time to slow down and try to make my hand as cheaply as possibly, so I don't really have much experience with those situations. I'd say that going for it when you'll have to make a flush to win when getting 3:1 on the turn is a losing proposition in most cases though, since it seems hard to make as much as a whole big bet on average on the river when you hit against most opponents.

pokeropie · Royal Flush Joined: 04 Jan 2006 Posts: 747 Location: Ohio

if its a nut flush or i have outher out and think outher player is weak

deadmoney314 · Posted: Sat Dec 23, 2006 5:19 pm Post subject:

If you were in the BB with 34s and button limps SB folds you check and the flop comes JT2 w/ two of your suit I'll make a flop call if villain bets and muck to a turn bet. I think this is more the situation you are thinking of, and it may not be visible in the short run but change that turn fold into a turn call and repeat a thousand times and you will be in the red.

drtre1987 · Message Board Junkie Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 1923

to improve your odds a little (although not much), you can raise for the free card heads up. like if you have the Ad4d and they have a top pair on a board of 3d7hJd, then if you raise him, most of the time he will check on the turn, allowing you to check after him if you miss. basically, what you are doing is replacing calling the big bet on the turn with a small bet on the flop. it saves you a little bit, but in the long run that can save you a lot of money if ur going to play draws heads up.

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