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Gypsydc

Ok,

So we talk about pot odds and implied odds and fish and how we want that call, etc. because in the long run, if that situation happens an infinite amount of times we profit on others -EV plays. You get the picture.

I know that generally speaking (although this is not a large enough sample size for poker) that 30 is the magical number in which you will statistically begin to see an even distribution or bell curve, but I'm pondering this...

Damn...I'm having writer's block and this is taking long to post...how do word this Question

Okay, we're not going to play an infinite amount of hands but we will be able to play a number that is large enough to give an accurate sample size but...what about calculating the chances that you could go on a huge suckout rush, or alternatively, a huge downswing despite playing perfectly. What are the chances of that happening? Could it be calculated or would it be more of a theoretical discussion? I don't have my thoughts completely worked out here so I'm hoping someone like DM will catch my drift and sort it out.

Additionally, what about discussing this in let's say something like the WSOP main event, you bust, you're out, you don't take a chance, you're out...you may have to make some incorrect choices to come out ahead right? I know we'll have to add psychology to the mix here but so be it.

I'd like to read some thoughts.

2 high flush · Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 11:55 am Post subject:

id like to know what people think about one person being unlucky while another is lucky FOR AN ENTIRE CAREER. we say it all balances out but it doesnt have to balance out for one person. it balances out on a universal scale. its possible although insanely unlikely that a player could make a career out of constantly sucking out while some random player can never win no matter what he does. and maybe we dont go on such a huge scale. maybe we go with 2 players, one who is great and one that is just good statistically. in the end the good player could make more money in a career simply because the cards come that way (what we call luck) while the great player only makes enough to get by.

any thoughts?

deadmoney314 · Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:28 pm Post subject:

Well, people do win the powerball although it is far more likely to die from falling out of your bed. Eventually (if it has not happened already), there will be a lifetime +EV player that loses and vice versa--as long as the human race goes on for an extraordinarily long time. I think this is more likely to happen in a B&M situation because lifetime 16-tabler vs. lifetime B&M is a huge difference in number of trials (or hands/tournies).
The problem then becomes like the infinite (or very large number) of monkeys in the room each with a typewriter in front of them, eventually given enough time or an infinite number of monkeys, one will have written the entire works of William Shakespeare by chance.

BUT, I wouldn't bet on it... what was the question again?

Gypsydc · Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:30 pm Post subject:

I don't know DM...you're supposed to figure that out. Wink

deadmoney314 · Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:32 pm Post subject:

I think sometimes questions are harder than answers

Gypsydc · Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:33 pm Post subject:

deadmoney314 · Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:34 pm Post subject:

Here's what I think is going on. What is our confidence that our profits/losses reflect our true win rate dependant on number of trials. And conversely, what is the probability that our results do not match our winrate (i.e. what is the likelyness that I'm just a n00b on a really unlikely hot streak after 500,000 hands?)

Gypsydc · Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:38 pm Post subject:

Now we're getting somewhere y=mx+b

prolifik0119 · Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:39 pm Post subject:

I dont know if I know what we're talking, you know? But I'll just ramble on about something. I don't think we can measure or calculate downswings or upswings(if that's the word). I don't think that things balance out evenly but I suppose they can balance out relatively(if that makes sense?...I'm just typing). I don't really believe in luck, I believe in odds. The world runs on odds if you think about it. Odds of a turtle falling out of the sky and knocking me out, Odds of one sock disapearing out of the dryer, Odds of getting in a car accident, Odds of finding a rock in my cereal, etc etc. Luck is what? Smaller odds winning? Smaller odds win all the time just in ratio to the larger odds, say 2:1 or 5:1 or 1728:1 or whatever. If any of those things that I listed happen, then I guess I got "lucky" though I'd be upset if a sock vanished in the dryer. It's possible that each of those things could happen to me but I put myself in positions to reduce the odds of those happening such as zip-tying my socks together before I put them in the dryer or driving on the sidewalk where there's no other traffic. These precautions make those odds smaller but it could happen anyways, same in poker. We put ourselves in positions to be the favorite but we could still lose every single time. I don't know if I made my point, I don't know if I even had a point I was trying to make. As for the WSOP, it's like all other poker we play. Put yourself in favorable positions and hope the odds fall in place.

deadmoney314 · Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:43 pm Post subject:

I'll chew on this while I go on lunch, we really need someone with an actuarial degree to get quick and accurate answers. The question is very interesting Gyps, NH.

Josh Fialkowski · Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:46 pm Post subject:

Hmm I consider play as my confidence. Im confident that I can put people on hands by their bets, hence i play more online poker then live. I look at this as a mathamtical way. The money goes in when you have the best hand at the time you played it correctly. Theoretical is more with feelings. You can learn this by just playing and u have that gut feeling that you will hit your gut-shot. And you end up hitting it. Considered as a bad play drawing to 4 outs but theoretically it was the right play. You knew it deep down and you stuck with your gut feeling. To me theoretical is you have that feeling or you dont.

Me and my dad play totally opposite. I play by the numbers a lot and when i have that gut feeling i will change my play to it (drawing a flush etc.) and my dad is all feelings. No numbers. I guess to me this is the difference from theroritcal play vrs by the numbers.

Paprika · Full House Joined: 08 Feb 2006 Posts: 194

I play with some friends about once a month in a NLHE $20 Max buy in home game deal. Lots of fun. There is one of my buds who is a fair player and more on the conservative side. I cannot recall a single session where he doesn't catch cards and he always wins some money. Usually the most $. It never fails that he alway gets good cards every time we play. He thinks that he is a good player because of this. Can't blame him with his win rate I guess, but he now always expects to get great cards all the time and he does. He could very possibly keep catching great like this and always win whereas someone like me(plays the most and studies the game the most) who usually wins a little in this game but (I do lose at times) may always have up & down results. Now, I feel that I have a better chance over the longer run of things to do better than my friends but just playing once a month with them anything may happen. I guess my personal expectations of myself are so high because I sudy the game so intensly that I think I deserve to have better results all the time? Not sure bu tit may be an abundance of self confidence or arrogance, but I think some positive ego is a good thing.

I play mostly in B&M so I may never have a "Statistical Long Run" of things.

deadmoney314 · Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 4:50 pm Post subject:

Just thought this material fit the theme of this thread and should be included

http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/issue22/Bankroll%20Requirements.html

Jobe Gilchrist · Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 5:06 pm Post subject:

http://pokerforums.fulltiltpoker.com/viewtopic.php?t=15765&highlight=confidence+intervals

deadmoney314 · Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 5:09 pm Post subject:

Moreover, this...

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=5841313&page=0&vc=1

which comes from a more recent:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=8133735&an=0&page=3#Post8133735

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