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fire_eyes_2k · Posted: Fri Nov 17, 2006 4:01 pm Post subject: Save a bet or bet for value?

I've always thought that profit in limit games comes through saving bets, which always steers me away from betting for value. Example:

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with A Club

K

3 folds, MP2 raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: 3 Diamond

Q

6

(7SB, 2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls.

Turn: A Heart

(4.5BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls.

River: 5 Spade

(8.5BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Results:
Final pot: 8.5BB

MP2 was a Tight-Aggresive player, and the raise on the turn really threw me, but I think I missed a bet on the river, as he would definitely have had oddds to call.

Is this a straightforward hand I should have bet out on or is my hand as vulnerable as I think it is to either a set or AQ, both of which made sense from the preflop raise. I figured if I threw out another BB and I was beat, I would be raised and have to make a crying call, so in effect I was saving that second bet by checking. But that sounds crazy now I think about it. Opinions please?

dmoore1998 · Posted: Fri Nov 17, 2006 4:04 pm Post subject:

From early position on the river I would advise checking medium strength hands even if you think you might be ahead. I would have made the same play. If he doesn't raise the turn then I probably go ahead and lead out on the river but the raise makes me think at least 2 pair and I do the same as you. No reason to risk getting raised when you're unsure if you are ahead or not. Check-call the river.

dmoore1998 · Posted: Fri Nov 17, 2006 4:07 pm Post subject:

FYI: the time to think about whether you're ahead or behind is on the turn. Once you just call the turn i think your check on the river is an automatic. If you think you're ahead you 3-bet the turn. I might consider 3-betting only because I think maybe my opponent puts me on a Q and can either scare me off when the A hits or he hit a worse A than me. But most likely I play it the same way.

bigwheell · Posted: Fri Nov 17, 2006 8:47 pm Post subject:

I may be wrong here, but I think the mp2 raised with a weaker A than you...I would venture a guess that he was making a play at the pot on the turn when the A came, when that didn't work he gave up on the river.

I probably would have 3 bet the turn as I think you are ahead... I would not expect just a call from a TA player on the flop: If he actually had AQ, I would have expected him to raise on the flop.

My guess is that he had a weak Ace, but not two pair...

Big Slick x13x · Forum Icon Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 4125 Location: ROK

Am I the only one that sees that our Hero flopped the nuts and the board never paired? Your call on the turn and your check on the river was definitely wrong. His raise on the turn let you know he had an ace. If you raise he has to call to pay it off as pot odds dictate. You definitely messed up there, but you realize your mistake and it probably won't happen again.

Edit: Those images of the suits are terrible. But you do have the nut flush on the river, yes?

fire_eyes_2k · Posted: Fri Nov 17, 2006 10:44 pm Post subject:

No i don't have the nut flush, I have TPTK. I'll rework the images. Thanks for pointing it out

deadmoney314 · Posted: Fri Nov 17, 2006 11:26 pm Post subject:

fire_eyes_2k · Posted: Fri Nov 17, 2006 11:40 pm Post subject:

Thanks for those responses - I was thinking he might have a weaker ace, but I wasn't 'confident' he had it. Last time I 3-bet a hand similar to that, I ended up facing a flopped set, so I was a little too cautious. He had Ad Td.

Must build more aggression into my game, currently my bankroll is running between -$20 and +$50 after 2500 logged hands, so just variance really Sad

griffinlord · Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2006 12:15 pm Post subject:

AllInDrawinDead · Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2006 2:33 am Post subject:

The problem I have with three-betting the turn is that I will most likely get reraised if I am beat and I will cost myself extra bets. If I bet to find out if my hand is good I can also just call his bet and then the one on the river to see exactly what he has at the showdown. If he is making a play at the pot then I don't want to discourage him from doing that when I believe I could have the best hand.

bigwheell · Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2006 3:22 am Post subject:

dmoore1998 · Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2006 2:23 pm Post subject:

All you have is one pair though, one pair is generally not my idea of a reraising hand. You are losing out on 2BB's if you're ahead but if you're behind you're losing 3BB's. You are reraising and probably getting capped if you're behind. Then you're calling another BB on the river. Since the turn is when most players actually raise when they hit things like sets and 2 big pairs I think the majority of the time you get raised here you're not clearly ahead. Look at the example of 10 hands being wrong the other way. If you 3-bet here and get capped and the other player bets the river you're losing 3bb. If this happens 10 times in 800 hands you're down 30bb. I would say you're no better than 50/50 to be ahead in this kind of situation unless you're playing with terrible players who raise with junk on the turn. If you're 50/50 then being right wins you 2bb (assuming the player calls your reraise and they weren't just bluffing), and if you're wrong you lose 3bb.

Now clearly this goes out the window if your opponents are bad players who would raise the turn with a weak hand, but against most players the raise on the turn represents a big hand since they are opening themselves up to a 3-bet at the higher bet level. Also if your opponent has only a Q here they likely fold once the A hits if you 3-bet it. I also just call the raise here hoping they will bet the river with a marginal hand that I can beat. Another reason I check the river with a decent hand I'm willing to call with but not bet with, give your opponent the chance to "bluff" at it on the end when you already know you're calling.

drtre1987 · Message Board Junkie Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 1923

you should bet for value because there are so many hands he could have had to call you with. In general, if with all of the possible hands, a majority of those hands would pay you off, then you would have to bet the river for value. especially in a small stakes game, most of your winnings come from winning bets in marginal situations when your opponent calls you down with a variety of hands. he could have a KQ, QJ, a pocketpair, or an Ax. and who says that you have to call if you are raised? if he raises, then it becomes more obvious that he has two pair or the flush and you can fold.

deadmoney314 · Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2006 6:36 pm Post subject:

deadmoney314 · Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2006 6:41 pm Post subject:

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