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Uncle_Buz
Four of a Kind
Joined: 29 Mar 2006
Posts: 260
Location: Tampa (formerly Ann Arbor)
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 Posted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 6:07 am Post subject: Math guys: How often is there no Low by the river? |
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Everybody loves to start with A2XX, but how often is it worthless because no low is possible by the river?
Also, what are the odds it will be counterfeited on the flop/turn/river ? |
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01baz
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 31 Aug 2006
Posts: 1904
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| Posted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 7:53 am Post subject: |
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lol sorry had 2 edit here, i jus read the title now n i feel a bit stupid, sorry i cant answer the question
Last edited by 01baz on Sun Oct 29, 2006 10:07 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Uncle_Buz
Four of a Kind
Joined: 29 Mar 2006
Posts: 260
Location: Tampa (formerly Ann Arbor)
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| Posted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 10:03 am Post subject: |
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I know.
But...
...can you answer the question from a probability/math standpoint? |
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bigguz2000
Two Pair
Joined: 28 Sep 2006
Posts: 68
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| Posted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 8:41 pm Post subject: |
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| About 60% of the time there is no low, unless someone justs bootlegs it the whole way down. Because there has to be an 8 or lower on the flop to continue, thats about 60% of the time, then 2 more lower cards also, which depending on how many people are playing gets lower. |
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jbrennen
Straight Flush
Joined: 16 Aug 2005
Posts: 422
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| Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 5:52 pm Post subject: |
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Here's the numbers...
Given no information about anyone's hands, the chance that a low will be possible on the river is 60.09%.
Given that you started with A-2, and no other information about your other two cards, the chance that a low will be possible on the river is 57.50%. (A little lower of course because those are two low cards which can't show up on the board.) Note that you won't make a low that often, because the board may counterfeit your Ace or deuce.
Given that you started with the best possible O/8 hand (A-A-2-3), the chance that a low will be possible on the river is 54.46%.
And on the other side, if you start with no low cards at all -- for instance, a hand like K-Q-J-T -- the chance that a low will be possible on the river goes up to 68.60%. |
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uh-oh
Four of a Kind
Joined: 27 Jul 2005
Posts: 346
Location: Annoying U
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| Posted: Tue Oct 31, 2006 11:24 pm Post subject: |
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60/40 = pos/prob of low qualifier
sounds about right |
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