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goomlah
Royal Flush
Joined: 08 Sep 2005
Posts: 561
Location: Chicago
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 Posted: Thu Sep 08, 2005 11:28 am Post subject: Interesting poker hand for the Full Tilt Masses |
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I say this because I want to prove many different styles win at poker:
I was 3 handed in Wed's night's Sept. 8th's $10 MTT with blinds at 25H/50H, 6H ante. Blinds limped in (tx burn em on BB, me on SB), and we are singificant chip leaders over 3rd place (3rd had about 60K, top 2 had bout 190K and 135K repsectively). Flop is 8 5 4 with 2 spades. I held 8-3 and figured top pair is good enough to steal the blind. Tx burn em moves all his chips in.
Now, I had to think this through for a second. If the guy had an 8, wouldn't he raise significantly less . A pair with a flush draw came to mind, but it seemed to me he had overcards with a draw, probably a draw to spades. However (and this is very important and it's the reason why I posted this), no matter what I put tx burn em on, I felt my hand was best, and regardless on the odds, I figured the best possible play was to play my hand and get the chips in. Turns out he 65 off (pair and inside str8 draw), and my hand held up, and I won the tournament not too far after.
I had not played with tx until the final table, so I had few tells on him. However, especially in online poker, if I think i have the best hand, I'm going to go with it. This is different from Omaha because of the draw having such an advantage over a made hand (most of the time). But with 2 cards to come (and some1 can help me with the math here) I was about a 65% favorite to win the hand and most likely win the tournament.
Now you can opine all you want about why the call was bad or why would I gamble with the chip lead (both fair questions), but I think my my point was made clear.
Gamble on guys |
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PlayingTheBoard
Full House
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 241
Location: Nashville, TN
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| Posted: Thu Sep 08, 2005 12:14 pm Post subject: |
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| but it seemed to me he had overcards with a draw, probably a draw to spades. |
If this is what you thought he had, then even though you were ahead, you were a slight underdog. For instance, if he held KsTs and you had 8c3d on a board of 8s4s2d, then he is about a 53/47 favorite to win--basically a coin flip with him being a slight favorite.
As the chip leader, I'm generally not looking to call off most or all of my chips on a 50/50 (+/-) proposition. If he had bet and you raised all-in, I don't really have a problem with that, since you are forcing him to the decision, not vice versa. But I personally prefer not calling all my chips off in a spot like that.
I guess my basic point is that even when you are ahead, you can be an underdog to win the hand, so the fact that you think you're ahead shouldn't be the overriding factor in your decision (although it should certainly enter into it). |
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goomlah
Royal Flush
Joined: 08 Sep 2005
Posts: 561
Location: Chicago
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| Posted: Thu Sep 08, 2005 12:22 pm Post subject: As Amir Vahedi would say,... |
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| Sometimes in order to live you have to be willing to die. It was a huge gamble that paid off. What also came into my mind was a pure bluff, but that also seemedunlikely. |
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PlayingTheBoard
Full House
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 241
Location: Nashville, TN
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| Posted: Thu Sep 08, 2005 1:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Sometimes in order to live you have to be willing to die. |
That's true. Some players are deathly afraid to commit a large portion of their chips on any given hand unless they hold the nuts, so they generally die a slow death and never amass enough chips to be a factor. Still, I would look for more clear-cut opportunities to get a huge part of my stack in the middle.
While it worked out well for you this time, I think it's a total crapshoot considering the range of hands he may be holding. Some may have you in really bad shape (top pair/better kicker, two pair, etc.); some would be coin flip situations (flush draw + overcards, straight draw + flush draw, etc.); and sometimes you would be in good shape (total bluff, middle pair, bottom pair, etc.).
Based on the fact that a) he could have a very wide range of hands (including any and all listed above, plus others) and b) you've only invested a single BB in the hand to this point, I would lean toward laying the hand down. But you went with your read (even though your read indicated you were an underdog) and it paid off. Just be sure to make your post-play analysis based on your decisions, not the results.
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| What also came into my mind was a pure bluff. |
Depending on your opponent, a total bluff is somewhat likely here. It's a huge gamble for a pretty minimal payoff, but when people make unnecesarily large bets like that, then there is some chance that they are bluffing--otherwise, if they were really strong, would they play the hand that way? Wouldn't they slowplay a true monster, or at least try to price you in with a small bet?
All depends on your opponent. Some will constantly make oversized bets, attacking and trying to take down every pot, and will do so with good hands, bad hands, and everything in between. Some will only bet big when they're bluffing, and play their bigger hands more slowly or from behind. Finally, some are easy-to-read, by-the-book players who have exactly what they represent nearly every time they bet.
In this case, you rightly judged that your opponent didn't have a huge hand, and there was a pretty good chance that you were ahead. It was a good, but risky, read. I can't especially fault you for calling, nor could I fault you if you chose to lay the hand down. |
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