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Online Poker Forum - Howard Lederer: Final Table Desperation Play (Strategy?)
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XCloud
Three of a Kind


Joined: 20 Aug 2007
Posts: 78

PostPosted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 5:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ah, man. I was about to post a topic about this very same situation. Thanks for the advice, guys.

Last 4 or 5 tournies, I've found myself short-stacked just before the bubble, or about 1 or 2 positions away from the final table, only to have my big stack become crippled out from antes and blinds.

The problem I'm having is that I start to play really tight just before the bubble, or before the next level up in the awards schedule. I'll play out decent to great hands, when I catch them once in a blue moon, only to get out-drawn or hit absolutely nothing. Because of the fact that blinds are so high, it's really easy for me to go from 30x bb to about 20x or 15x from a loss in one hand. (i.e. K pair with A kicker losing to trips, for example) Pretty soon after that, I'm finding myself in short stack position time after time.

Should I play tight later on? Or is aggressive while you're ahead a better strategy?
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bbgold
High Card


Joined: 05 May 2007
Posts: 8
Location: AZ

PostPosted: Sat Aug 02, 2008 2:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't believe in the 10X big blind theory

Many tournaments I have gone down to being blinded in if I have not been catching cards, and survived. True it is Best to have some blinds but if you are not catching playable cards Why risk it? The best I have done so far is moving from 150th place to 15th place just playing the blinds. Last tourney I went from 15th to 2nd just playing the blinds or Good hands. So to me you Need to have a playable hand or rely on your reads of the other player or just Wait for the blinds to act.

Good Luck and Good Games!
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live4freerolls
Banned


Joined: 23 Nov 2006
Posts: 2588
Location: Grindin

PostPosted: Sat Aug 02, 2008 2:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bbgold wrote:
I don't believe in the 10X big blind theory

Many tournaments I have gone down to being blinded in if I have not been catching cards, and survived. True it is Best to have some blinds but if you are not catching playable cards Why risk it? The best I have done so far is moving from 150th place to 15th place just playing the blinds. Last tourney I went from 15th to 2nd just playing the blinds or Good hands. So to me you Need to have a playable hand or rely on your reads of the other player or just Wait for the blinds to act.

Good Luck and Good Games!


Have fun blinding out.
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feihua
Omnikarmic Wheee Sensei


Joined: 14 Oct 2006
Posts: 2253
Location: Asakura, Fukuoka Japan

PostPosted: Sat Aug 02, 2008 6:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bbgold wrote:
I don't believe in the 10X big blind theory



It isn't a theory, it is mathematical fact.

The reason for it being successful is that it reduces exploitation to zilch.

Ya gotta listen to Lee!!
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kinkydude
High Card


Joined: 10 Nov 2007
Posts: 20

PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 8:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think you're attributing too much credit to your cards.

It's not what you have until the showdown. Until you turn your cards over, it's what your opponent THINKS you have that counts. If you can convince him you've got the best hand, he'll lay down his second best hand. The trick is to set yourself up so that it looks like you've got more than you do. It's easier said than done, I know, but trying that is better than getting blinded out.

What really impresses me is someone who can get through to the final table without showing a hand. Now THAT's playing!
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sig1561
Straight


Joined: 12 Mar 2007
Posts: 116

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not sure what kind of strategic answer you're looking for being card dead and all...

I suggest not looking tilted that the card gods hate you. As long as you keep from looking pissed, peeps may just think you're very tight. Therefore, pick a spot, like a Harrington squeeze play or something with your crap cards. There's nothing you can do with crap cards except represent non-crapiness in them.

Such a profound answer.
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ARGLE1
High Card


Joined: 16 Aug 2008
Posts: 3

PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 8:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

card deadness isnt really as important as texas seems to think at the sort of 20 BB point. I guess that you could work out your action by answering a series of questions before you even look at your cards.

1. Do I have enough chips to make a move other than all in/fold?
If you do you should probably consider wheter its a good play and what state it would leave your stack in and how it would affect your likely situation in the tourament. Generally if you feel you can then ignore the next questions and play proper poker.

2. If i do shove how likely is it that everyone will fold?
3. How likely is it that I will be called?
4. How many players are likely to call?
Base this on chip stacks, posistion, reads on players, who the raiser (if any) is and how all possible outcomes would affect you in the tourament.
Would losing if called bubble you in the tourament when one or more players have less chips etc

5. How good a hand would i need to all in?
try to consider all of the possiblities and potential outcomes and how likely they are and how well your hand would need to hold up to them and other such

6. Is my hand that good?
If it is, shove, if its not fold. If you anticipate everyone to fold don't suddenly look down at aces and decide your going to play more trickily or chicken out if you have 3 high. If you have the chips to play real poker then you should have worked this out in 1.

just my 2 cents
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Kam1972
Pair


Joined: 03 Sep 2008
Posts: 48

PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bbgold wrote:
I don't believe in the 10X big blind theory

Many tournaments I have gone down to being blinded in if I have not been catching cards, and survived. True it is Best to have some blinds but if you are not catching playable cards Why risk it? The best I have done so far is moving from 150th place to 15th place just playing the blinds. Last tourney I went from 15th to 2nd just playing the blinds or Good hands. So to me you Need to have a playable hand or rely on your reads of the other player or just Wait for the blinds to act.

Good Luck and Good Games!


Because there is no certainty that you will catch good cards in time. Better to push with unexpected hands than get blinded down to a point where you may get several callers when you do push and hence up the odds someone hits a hand that beats yours. As said its mathematical fact that you just have no fold equity if you get much below 9-10x the big blind. So if you go to much below that you are in danger of needing to double up twice rather than once to be in a healthy state. So you have to risk going out more than once.

Hell, I'm no great player, but I'd rather go out like a hero trying to win than a lamb trying to limp one more place up the prize table by not playing and hoping for that monster pocket pair etc. Have to say I agree too with the pushing with stuff like suited connectors, or even offsuit ones due to the fact its often bettter than something like K10 or other marginal hands, as its quite likely that your all in 10x blind push is only really likely to be called by people with either really big stacks on similar, or people with strong hands. So better to not be in a dominated situation against someone with AK or KQ even. Thats my thoughts any how.
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feihua
Omnikarmic Wheee Sensei


Joined: 14 Oct 2006
Posts: 2253
Location: Asakura, Fukuoka Japan

PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

feihua wrote:

Ya gotta listen to Lee!!


http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/15250
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philip297619
High Card


Joined: 17 Sep 2008
Posts: 1

PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2008 7:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

you suck! ill find you and kick your *** in this game kidding
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jjpregler
Forum Pro


Joined: 17 May 2006
Posts: 1449

PostPosted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

feihua wrote:
feihua wrote:

Ya gotta listen to Lee!!


http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/15250


You do know that article is for heads up, right?
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