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IRSAgent · High Card Joined: 30 Aug 2005 Posts: 5

There was an Omaha 8 hand in which I was involved. I had AA3x with the A3 being suited in spades. The flop came out J-A-Q with the J and Q being spades as well. I bet half the pot, a couple people fold and the only remaining player raises to about 3 times my bet. At this point I assume he has the straight already. Nonetheless, I figured with a draw to the highest full house along with the flush draw and two cards to come, I'm still a mathematical favorite. I re-raise all-in (which was not that much more).

The other player flips over KQQ10. Indeed he had already made his straight and also had trip queens. 3 of my assumed outs were no longer available. Fortunately, I hit the fifth spade on the turn and no queen came. I scooped the pot.

Looking back, I calculated that I had a 65.3% chance to win that hand when all the money went in after the flop. On the turn, I had 9 spades, 3 jacks and 1 ace = 13 outs / 45 possible. This is 28.9%. On the river, I had 9 spades, 3 jacks, 1 ace and 3 chances to match the turn card = 16 outs / 44 possible. This is 36.4%. Adding the two together results in a 65.3% chance to win the hand. Is this correct?

It may not matter to some to go through such calculations. I find it helpful to re-evaluate complex scenerios such as these. As Clonie Gowen said in one of her articles, omaha hi-low is all about redraws. I believe this is one incredible example of what she meant.

goodtime · Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:11 pm Post subject:

In my opinion I would just call the 3x raise on the flop. Then make a move on the turn or river for all of your chips.

Jaconda78 · Message Board Junkie Joined: 06 Jul 2005 Posts: 4177

No - you dont just add it up. To do it right, calculate the chances of MISSING on botht the turn and river, and subtract it from one. Otherwise, if you're 50% to hit on the turn and 50% on the river, you're guaranteed to hit. WRONG!

IRSAgent · High Card Joined: 30 Aug 2005 Posts: 5

Thanks for the replies. I see what you mean about the correct way to calculate the chances of winning. Also, I would have only called after his raise if the amount he had left was significant. However, even if I hit a blank on the turn and he bet all-in, I would have had the correct odds to call for my full house.

Once again, thanks for the input.

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