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jbrennen Straight Flush
Joined: 16 Aug 2005 Posts: 422
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Posted: Mon Aug 07, 2006 2:07 pm Post subject: Run of cold cards |
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I sat down at a $3/$6 table this morning.
For my first 38 hands in a row, I didn't have a single hand that consisted of three unpaired cards 8 or lower. Best hand of the run was (3-9)-A, and unfortunately on that hand, I was UTG with 5 up cards of 8 or better still to act, so I folded.
Only once during the run did I bet out, when I held (Q-3)-2; following me were a 9, J, 7, and the Q that brought it in. I completed for the attempted steal, but the 7 called. On fourth street, I caught a Q, he caught a 5, and I had to give it up.
Finally, on my 39th hand, I got dealt (5-6)-A and finally won a hand on 4th street, when my only 3rd street caller folded his (x-x)-5-J on fourth street to my (5-6)-A-9. I left the table after that hand -- I was really only sticking around out of curiosity as to how long my cold streak would last.
BTW, the odds of not making a single 8-7-6 or better in your first 38 hands is 1 in 832. Definitely not your everyday run of cold cards.
Question -- was I too tight here? One steal attempt in 38 hands? 13 times during the cold streak, I had a wheel card showing, but I only made a move at the pot once. Do I need to loosen up?
Should I have maybe limped or completed with the (3-9)-A? Even UTG with 5 hands out there that could be beating me? |
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byamamoto1 Bay Area Bidness
Joined: 11 Aug 2005 Posts: 2179
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Posted: Mon Aug 07, 2006 3:46 pm Post subject: |
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i'm not really a razz expert, but am pretty knowledgable on the game. i'd say on regarding whether or not you're playing too tight, its just what the table dictates. if you're presented with a great opportunity to steal a pot, by all means make a move, but theres no point in really trying to force the issue if you don't have an opportunity. like in the example of the hand you had Q32, i would have attempted the steal and also released the hand when you did. you're probably just catching the sh!tty end of variance, and hopefully you're next 38 hands or so will all be good ones.
also since you play higher limits (assuming you're playing against better competition as well) i'd try and look for the weakest player at the table, most prone to folding if bricking, and just try and isolate against them with more marginal hands. you can represent a strong board and try to pick him off when he bricks, if he is capable of folding. |
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jbrennen Straight Flush
Joined: 16 Aug 2005 Posts: 422
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Posted: Mon Aug 07, 2006 6:53 pm Post subject: |
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| byamamoto1 wrote: |
| you're probably just catching the sh!tty end of variance |
That's certainly true, and I'd rather fold 38 bad hands than lose one big pot. I ended up down $17.50 through 39 hands. (Less than 3 big bets.) So it wasn't really the monetary loss that bugged me, more like the waste of time, sitting there through 39 hands and only making 3 bets.
The (3-9)-A hand bugs me just a little bit, just because of how it turned out. The player to my left limped in with (8-3)-8, and I had a better hand than that. Against the two hands that ended up going to showdown -- the (8-3)-8 and a (6-7)-4, I was actually 36% to win on 3rd street. That's definitely +EV for me in a 3-way pot. If I knew that someone was going to play junk like (8-3)-8, I'd be more inclined to play my own less junky (3-9)-A.  |
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