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Online Poker Forum - When to stay, when to bail

 
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drowsy
Royal Flush


Joined: 03 May 2006
Posts: 971
Location: Ohio

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:51 am    Post subject: When to stay, when to bail Reply with quote

Decided to try Razz again a few months after trying it for the first time. Not doing so well. Shocked After looking into it, I think my problem is not deciding properly when to bail out of a hand.

The following is a situation that seems to happen frequently . Its fifth street and I have a made 97, Faceoff looks to have a 86, and Philly paired his 3.

They both bet. What should I be doing?


Stage #416161397: Razz Normal $0.10/$0.25 - 2006-08-02 00:56:43 (ET)
Seat 1 - FACEOFF66 ($2.95 in chips)
Seat 2 - ROYALFLUSH4 ($0.48 in chips)
Seat 3 - RENENET ($23.52 in chips)
Seat 4 - PHILLY37 ($8.27 in chips)
Seat 5 - DROWSY ($4.99 in chips)
Seat 6 - I AM BOAT ($5.11 in chips)
Seat 8 - VERRILL1523 ($7.18 in chips)
FACEOFF66 - Posts the Ante $0.02
ROYALFLUSH4 - Posts the Ante $0.02
PHILLY37 - Posts the Ante $0.02
I AM BOAT - Posts the Ante $0.02
VERRILL1523 - Posts the Ante $0.02
DROWSY - Posts the Ante $0.02
RENENET - Posts the Ante $0.02
*** 3rd STREET ***
FACEOFF66 - Pocket [H H 2d]
ROYALFLUSH4 - Pocket [H H 8c]
RENENET - Pocket [H H Qc]
PHILLY37 - Pocket [H H 7h]
DROWSY - Pocket [Ad 6s 7c]
I AM BOAT - Pocket [H H 3h]
VERRILL1523 - Pocket [H H 5d]
RENENET - Bring-In $0.05
PHILLY37 - Calls $0.05
DROWSY - Calls $0.05
I AM BOAT - Folds
VERRILL1523 - Folds
FACEOFF66 - Calls $0.05
ROYALFLUSH4 - Folds
*** 4TH STREET ***
FACEOFF66 - Pocket [H H 2d 8d]
RENENET - Pocket [H H Qc 3s]
PHILLY37 - Pocket [H H 7h 3d]
DROWSY - Pocket [Ad 6s 7c 4c]
PHILLY37 - Checks
DROWSY - Checks
FACEOFF66 - Bets $0.10
RENENET - Folds
PHILLY37 - Calls $0.10
DROWSY - Calls $0.10
*** 5TH STREET ***
FACEOFF66 - Pocket [H H 2d 8d 6d]
PHILLY37 - Pocket [H H 7h 3d 3c]
DROWSY - Pocket [Ad 6s 7c 4c 9s]
FACEOFF66 - Bets $0.25
PHILLY37 - Calls $0.25
DROWSY - ?????
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TazzMetal
Straight Flush


Joined: 09 May 2006
Posts: 374
Location: Montreal, QC

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm no Razz expert, I play it once in a while and consider myself to be "semi-decent" but I figure I could offer my view. At worst, I will get corrected and will have learned something.

Anyhow, as it stands, you have a made nine with two more streets to improve on. At worst, you are up against a made 8 by Faceoff (which I believe is possible but unlikely as I figured he would have completed the opening bet if he truly had two other small low cards under) and a possible 7 by Philly if he does not hit a brick.

In this position, I would probably let it go and fold. My reasoning is this: Your nine does not look to have a strong chance of being the best hand going by the other player's board. It is possible that one is bluffing and hoping to get a fold, but it is unlikely that both are. If you stay in the hand and catch a 8 for a made 8, it is likely that you will be beaten by somebody with a lower 8 as yours would be (8,7,6,4,A). Your only hope would be to catch one of your 9 outs to a made 7 (4 remaining Fives, 2 remaining Threes and 3 remaining Twos) and that both your opponents would hit bricks and not improve which can happen but is unlikely.

That is the way I would play it. I try to pick the best possible spots when entering multi-way pots in Razz and I feel this spot would not be one of them and will be some more favorable ones down the road.

Hope this helps, if not, ignore I posted anything. Razz
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jbrennen
Straight Flush


Joined: 16 Aug 2005
Posts: 422

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's $1.14 in the pot, and you only need to put $0.25 to see the next round of cards. To me, this is an easy call.

Cards seen so far (including folded cards and your own hole cards) are: 2 8 Q 7 A 6 7 3 5 8 3 3 4 6 3 9. Among cards below 8, that leaves:

3 Aces
3 Deuces
0 Treys
3 Fours
3 Fives
2 Sixes
2 Sevens
2 Eights

There are 6 cards in the deck that can give you a made 7, out of 36 unseen cards. With two cards to come, your chance to make a 7 low (or better) is 31%.

Unless one of your opponents is trapping -- which is rarely a smart idea in Razz -- it's unlikely that either of them has four cards to a 7. PHILLY37 check-called on 4th street with a 7-3 showing; if he had 4 cards to a 7, he'd probably have bet out there. FACEOFF66 has been betting out on 4th and 5th street, but he simply called the completion on 3rd street; I'm guessing that he's simply betting into what he perceives to be weak opposing hands.

Given that, I'm thinking that your chance to win at showdown is at least 30%. A call here is easily a +EV move, given that you're getting about 4.5 to 1 pot odds on this street.


But your play on 3rd and 4th streets baffles me a little bit. I would have completed the bet on 3rd street with (A-6)-7, and I would have raised on 4th street with (A-6)-7-4. It's not just value betting a good hand, but it would have made the decision to call on 5th street basically automatic, because the pot would have been big enough to justify going for the 7 low. If a 31% chance to make a 7 low justifies calling a 25 cent bet into a $1.14 pot (and I think it does), then the same call into a $1.74 pot is a no-brainer.


I'd also consider the somewhat risky play of raising on 5th street with your made 9. FACEOFF66's response might tell you where you stand in the hand -- whether he has a made 8 or not. And if he re-raises you, PHILLY37 will either fold -- which is good for you -- or he'll be putting money into the pot as an almost certain underdog -- which is also good for you. The raise on 5th street is -EV if FACEOFF66 has a made 8, but like I discussed above, I'm guessing that he doesn't. And even if he does, you've got a decent chance to improve.


Anyway, that's just a thought. Call here on 5th street, or even raise, but don't fold. You're either ahead in the hand or slightly behind, but you are certainly not way behind.
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drowsy
Royal Flush


Joined: 03 May 2006
Posts: 971
Location: Ohio

PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thought I would show the rest of the hand.

As you can tell from my action TazzMetal, my thinking in the hand aligned closely with yours. However, as we can see, your analysis jbrennen was spot on.

Something to keep in mind when reading these hand histories from Absolute is that, unlike Full Tilt, I don't think they randomize the hole cards before showing them. That means that the first two cards displayed are, I believe, their starting hole cards.

jbrennan - As far as my confusing play you commented on, ummmm... I plead lack of skill. Embarassed I appreciate your pointers, and know I really need to read the Razz section in Sklansky's book that I've read glowing reports about.

Until I do, my advice to anyone reading this is: if you see me sitting at a Razz table, run, don't walk, to the nearest empty seat. Laughing


DROWSY - Folds
*** 6TH STREET ***
FACEOFF66 - Pocket [H H 2d 8d 6d 10c]
PHILLY37 - Pocket [H H 7h 3d 3c 2h]
FACEOFF66 - Bets $0.25
PHILLY37 - Calls $0.25
*** RIVER ***
FACEOFF66 - Pocket [H H 2d 8d 6d 10c H]
PHILLY37 - Pocket [H H 7h 3d 3c 2h H]
FACEOFF66 - Checks
PHILLY37 - Checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
FACEOFF66 - Shows [6h 7s 2d 8d 6d 10c 2s]
PHILLY37 - Shows [4d 10d 7h 3d 3c 2h 2c]
PHILLY37 Collects $1.59 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($1.64) | Rake ($0.05)
Seat 1: FACEOFF66 lost with 10,8,7,6,2 [6h 7s 2d 8d 6d 10c 2s - B:2d,B:6d,P:7s,B:8d,B:10c]
Seat 2: ROYALFLUSH4 Folded on the 3rd STREET
Seat 3: RENENET Folded on the 4TH STREET
Seat 4: PHILLY37 won Total ($1.59) with 10,7,4,3,2 [4d 10d 7h 3d 3c 2h 2c - B:2c,B:3c,P:4d,B:7h,P:10d]
Seat 5: DROWSY Folded on the 5TH STREET
Seat 6: I AM BOAT Folded on the 3rd STREET
Seat 8: VERRILL1523 Folded on the 3rd STREET
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CrustyFace
Pair


Joined: 21 Jul 2006
Posts: 26

PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 11:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Call and see in that position. As previously said, if he limps to see 4th he aint sitting happy.

The speed at which the opponents bet is very important. I won't tell you what means what because i dont want to reveal what i have worked out. Just watch the betting speeds.

Also, watch how many dead cards the opponents have up, and how likely it is that they have paired a hole card. Its usually fairly obvious.

Dave
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