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evo21 · High Card Joined: 20 Jul 2006 Posts: 5 Location: Up North

I'm kinda new to Omaha, so please don't flame me or anything if you consider this to be a stupid observation.. Very Happy

I just started thinking about playing an overpair on paired board where you have no piece of it. For example you're holding AAJT on the button and flop comes 277Q. Now someone bets the maximum and its folded to you. Usually I fold this right here, at least on a full ring game.

But today I started thinking about the implied odds. You have 2 almost nut outs (probably good outs since few max bet quads). Now if you pay and hit, you usually get to bust someone, at least on the lower limits where people are usually incapable of tough folds. The math I'm basing this on goes something like this:

Let X be the original pot.

Flop: X + X + X (pot + bet + call).
Turn: 3X + 3X + 12X + 9X (pot + bet + raise + call)
River: 27X + 27X + 27X (pot + bet + call)

(here I'm assuming opponent reverts to calling, you might actually get to go all-in on the turn if s/he thinks you're holding A7 and s/he has QQ for example)

So you pay one X and stand to win 41, so its 1:40. Odds for hitting that two outer on the turn on the other hand are 2:43 or 1:21.5. So you could actually sell your overfull for lot less than max bets and still make it a profitable call. If you had two overpairs in pocket it would be 4:41 or 1:10.25. Just calling both turn and river max bets would yield 14X alone.

Of course this assumes that someone has a made hand (like QQ, Q7 and maybe 72 and 22) since you usually dont get paid if someone holds just the set. And of course the money has to be deep enough.

Now this is just some quick math I sketched up while playing so there might be something wrong in there too. Please post your opinions Very Happy

p.s. First post!

DC11GE · Posted: Fri Jul 28, 2006 10:17 am Post subject:

Welcome to the board.

I won't go into detail regarding the odds and all that, but I'll say what I'd do in that situation after I ask a few questions:

1. What is the limit (buy-in) here?
2. Was this raised preflop and how many people saw the flop?
3. How many are left in the hand at the turn?

Depending on the limit, #2 might not matter. I've been at .25/.50 tables where I raised preflop UTG and almost everyone called. Whether I'd call or fold in this situation depends on the size of the pot. Most of the time at this point in the hand if someone bets the max, he at least has a 7 or QQ. If the pot isn't all that big and I'm heads up, I'd call, but if it's been bet and/or raised the whole way, I'd have to say that I'd probalby fold if there were more then 2 people in the hand. If there are 3 or 4 people in it, then at least 1 of the 2 outs that would be your nuts are probably in play by the other players. Alot or people play Asuited anything, so those are gone. I don't put much stock in overpairs in Omaha. Most hands are won by the nuts, so 2 pair isn't as common to win it. I doubt the person betting the max has only a Q. If so, then you'll make alot of money off of them, so it may be worth calling the bet to see what kind of player they are, but again, that depends on the size of the pot and the amount of players left in the hand.

Hope that helps.

evo21 · High Card Joined: 20 Jul 2006 Posts: 5 Location: Up North

Thanks for the reply.

The situation I had in mind was heads-up play (folded to you). As you pointed out you should always factor in other details such as pre-flop play since many people raise with pocket aces (play I don't personally like that much unless hand has other good qualities too). So in a pre-flop raised pot those may very well be gone already. And, as you said, the amount of players involved pre-flop should also be taken to consideration. Maybe pocket KK is somewhat safer to play, you _might_ actually have those 2 outs since not that many people like Kxs that much Very Happy

Also, keep in mind that I was only thinking about seeing the turn (I'm not willing to risk that much on a 2 pair, and implied odds are so much worse on the turn). If it misses and it's bet to you, I would definately fold. And I would only consider this play if I'm last to act on the flop (preferably on the button). Otherwise this is an automatic fold for me.

evo21 · High Card Joined: 20 Jul 2006 Posts: 5 Location: Up North

And of course you only get 4 cards flops when the dealer is as tired as I was.. Very Happy

I meant 77Q

barnster731 · High Card Joined: 30 Jul 2006 Posts: 1

my name is bernard mullica one day i will winthe wsop (in my dreams!)

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