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dumwaldo

I finally figured out why so many people complain about bad beats with online poker. Plain and simple, it is the gross overuse of the all in bet. Go to a casino and watch a poker tournament. I would be very surprised if you saw more than one all in bet during the first round of play. Open an online poker tournament and you are bound to see it happen a few times during the first round of play on just about any given tournament table.

No question about it, the internet has all in fever. The fact that just about every table also has captain call all who can not lay down a hand can make it a profitable experience for the lucky and frustrating experience for the unlucky. The poker axiom that a bad lay down will always be cheaper than a bad beat is something that all to many internet players just do not understand. I would rather lose half my chips folding a hand I was not sure about than lose all my chips finding out that my hand wasn't the best when the board is filled. Sure those Aces look like a monster pre-flop but what happens when the board comes with 3 suited connecting cards? Well you have the safe move of folding and getting away from the hand, UNLESS you committed all your chips before the flop.

The way I see it, the great availability of play is to blame for this. Get knocked out of a casino tournament and it could be hours before another one is available and it usually involves going to another casino. Get knocked out of an online tournament and a new game is just a few clicks away. There is a dramatic difference in the risk factor of playing online in comparison to the risk factor in a casino.

The cash games online are just decimated by something that I call overplayers and underplayers. Basically these are the people that are either playing in games that are to expensive for their bankroll or games that are to cheap for their bankroll. Both are equally as dangerous. Underplayers are dangerous because they can afford to make the stupidest calls in the world and it has little impact on their bankroll. Overplayers are dangerous because they feel to much pressure to make sure they get back whatever chips they put in the pot. Overplayers can not afford to lose so they are more willing to chase.

So what can a player do to overcome the rampant all in bets on the internet? Well, it is pretty simple, just avoid going all in as much as possible. This is especially true for the pre flop all in bets. As the board cards come and your hand appears to be holding up it becomes a safer move. The only time you should really even consider going all in early in a tournament is if you hold the absolute nuts.

What it boils down to is strategy. Making an all in bet before the flop is a resignation that you do not have a strategy for this hand so you are going to throw you money at luck. When you display such faith in luck you are going to encounter other players equally as willing to throw their money at luck. Conversely, if you play your hands well and use strategic bets you will encourage good players to stay in the hand with you and pay you off. Going all in, pre-flop is a sign of weakness with a strong hand and don't forget a hand is made of five cards, not two so you can NEVER have the nuts pre-flop. ANY HAND will always have at least some chance to win against you no matter what you have. EVEN ACES!

By devising a betting strategy for a hand you will maximize your chance for profit and can always incorporate an escape plan. Every hand is unique but not every hand needs a unique betting strategy. You can develop loose formulas on how to play various strength hands and re-use them during play but it is important to not play such a consistent game that you are an open book.

Let me draw a little analogy comparing poker to chess. You can play chess by just examining the board on each move and deciding on the best move in that situation. If you wish to be a good chess player, you will need to figure out multi move combinations to devise an effective winning strategy. You might have a 4 move combination to get your queen out of position and lined up for a certain kill but that move alone will not win the game. It is by stringing together a series of mutli-move strategic placements of your pieces that you win the game. Those 4 move combinations in chess are equivalent to one of your 'formula' strategies for playing medium strength hands from solid table position. It might work out but it might not and that one play should not cost you a whole game, nor should it win you a whole game.

Before you make your fist bet of the hand try to play out the hand in your head a few different ways. Imagine a winning hand and a losing hand. Imagine how you can bet that will make you the most money if you hit the winning hand and cost you the least money if you end up with the losing hand. Over the long run, solid pre-flop raises and continuation bets will make you more money than pre-flop all in bets. Raising 4x the BB is a far wiser move than going all in pre-flop. If you really want to push hard then go for 6X the BB but remember to consider how your pre-flop betting will directly effect your ability to make strong continuation bets.

Imagine a tournament just started and the blinds are 25/50. I want to make a strong raise so i bump it 4X the BB for a total of 250 to go. That picks up 2 callers plus the blinds who folded and we have a pot of 825. To make a strong continuation bet I will now need to push in 825 chips. Now I am into the pot for 1125 in chips, I get one caller and the pot is up to 2475. See how quickly a pot can build with proper betting and a strategic approach. Providing my hand still looks strong after the next card i can easily get the rest of my chips into the pot and do so with a much better chance of winning the hand. Suppose i completely miss the flop and think it looks like a very dangerous board I could easily just check the flop and fold to any bet and escape the hand for only 250 chips.

Before you enter a hand, run through it in your head with you winning and losing. CAREFULLY CONSIDER your bet taking into account the ability to make continuation bets and the impact on your overall chip stack. Be ready to fold and exercise your best judgment. If you suspect a draw you might even want to risk a second continuation bet if your first one gets a flat call. Be ready to lose what you put in the pot and still have enough to continue playing. You might end up reduced to serious grinder status but a serious grinder still has a better chance than someone who just got knocked out of the game.

Time for some self reflection now. Ask yourself if you have gone all in, pre flop more than once in the past 24 hours. If you answered yes then there is a good chance you are closer to being part of the problem than you are to being part of the solution. Poker is not a quick double em up game. It is a drawn out game of OVERALL strategy that does reward the good players, even online.

I have been criticized for my harshness towards others but I honestly do believe you usually get sucked out on when you play a hand wrong. Had the hand been played right you would have had the opportunity to fold and would have done so and avoided the bad beat. There are the obvious situations of being short stacked that require taking bigger risks. If you find yourself in a situation that you have a good worthy hand but do not have enough chips to bet it progressively you have to take the gamble and understand that sometimes bad beats do happen.

Good luck on the felt,
dumwaldo

BTW
I am off from work for a few days so I will see you all Sunday night at 9.

Big Slick x13x · Forum Icon Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 4626 Location: ROK

When I don't have food in front of me and I have more time, I'll read all of that...I promise.

I'll see you on sunday in mbj too...

drowsy · Royal Flush Joined: 03 May 2006 Posts: 990 Location: Ohio

Nice post dumwaldo.

Although I didn't start out that way, I too have come arround to an anti all-in playing style.

Sometimes though, your opponents aren't as enlightened and want to force you in. I remember a few days back to being in the BB. It folds to the SB who limps. I look down at AA and raise 3.5x the blind. He goes all-in. Whats a guy to do? Fold? Maybe Shocked

, after all, he did end up making a flush and busting me! Laughing

Seriously though, it seems like a nice way to play - if you're allowed to.

Big Slick x13x · Forum Icon Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 4626 Location: ROK

great write up waldo. I've been playing non all-in poker for a while now, and it has definitely faired me better in tournament play. The only time I really start using all in bets preflop is if I have KK or AA and I'm getting pushed, or if I'm around 8-10 big blinds. Even then there is still a selection process.

MuleLady · Posted: Fri Jul 21, 2006 4:27 pm Post subject:

Thoughtful and informative post, waldo. I am new to holdem and online poker; only been playing online at all for a year and real money for a couple of months. I am not very good at it (yet!) but I do study the game and appreciate folks who take the time (as you've done) to write about ideas that give me something to think about and can help improve my game.

I see all-in as just one more tool in the arsenal....it has its place, but seems to me patience is more likely to get you more pots.

FWIW. My opinion and a couple more bucks will get you a coffee at Starbucks...

cypress_98 · Royal Flush Joined: 28 Feb 2006 Posts: 592

cypress_98 · Royal Flush Joined: 28 Feb 2006 Posts: 592

As to Dumwaldo's post. I agree with what I have read. I am going to finish reading later.

dodge these · Posted: Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:51 am Post subject:

Very good post but I am afraid I have to mainly disagree. You do not want to bet in such a way that you avoid bad beats, but rather in such a way that all your beats are considered bad. In other words you want to get as much money into the pot with the odds as heavily in your favor as possible. While you would normally like to see all cards before having to commit most of your chips to the stack you will almost never hold the nuts even on the river and therefore even with the extra information you have gained by playing out the hand with continuation bets it is unlikely you can be much more sure that you will win than the 80%+ of the time you know you will win if you go all in preflop with aces. If you are actually advocating that if you raise and get rearaised preflop you should just smooth call (unless you think that will induce a big bet/bluff) on the flop, or actually fold if they rerais all in I cannot disagree more. Sure it will cut down on your bad beats but it will cut down on your wins as well.

Lets say you get AA in late position durng the first lever with one limper and you make it 3x to and get called by the bb and the limper. flop comes K96 rainbow and cation checks to you so you bet the pot and the bb reraise and the limper folds. What do you do? Fold, reraise, or call and fold to the next bet if you don't turn a set? If you are both high stacks late in a tourney I can see folding if you have a read on your opponent, but this early on do you really put the guy on a set? What if he just smooth calls and check riaise on the turn when it comes another 9? How about if it is a 7? Sure some cards are more dangerous than others but are you really advocating giving a strong bet early in the tournament credit for trips or better?!?!?

I advocate taking the oposite approach there. If you look at ESPN podcasts of the poker edge with phil gordon he had Chris ferguson or Howard Ladderer on one of them talking about the WSOP main event and they were sayin how most of teh field were fish and at least half would be willing to go all in on the first hand with any pair. Now this is at the WSOP and I have to think online play is even more crazy so I say you have to take advantage of this. Fot this reason I would actually advocate going all in preflp on the first hand with a dozen hands (AQ, AK, JJ, QQ, KK, and AA) since you are likely to actually (amazingly) get callers that you have dominated or are at worse in a coinflip with all those hands. And after all what beter time to go fishing than when there are a lot of fish willing to bite Wink

?

What I think makes this a good decission is exactly the reason you advocate not commiting yourself to a pot preflop... the fact that you are a good player and can outplay your opponents. I think having twice the starting stack from the beginning gives a good player a much better chance at making it through a field then it does to other players. In most MTT's you won't make the money (I certinly don't know of any pros that cash more times than not) so you have to realistically assume you will get beat sometime before more than half the time. Therefore why not take that chance where you are at worst 50/50 (unless you just had real bad luck/timing) and most probably in a dominating position in the first 2 minutes than after playing over 2 hours only to end up with the same result. I think if you really are a good player starting out with twice the average stack will help you stay ahead of the blinds and outplay your opponents thereby having to avoid these races (I still advocate going all in preflop if you can get a caller with AA no matter the stage) as you get to the money.

Brewnoe · Flush Joined: 26 Jun 2006 Posts: 131

Brewnoe · Flush Joined: 26 Jun 2006 Posts: 131

Just because I'm waaay overdue for some sleep, I have to point out that there's EXACTLY one "bad beat-proof" betting system ...

NEVER get your money in with the best of it Laughing

rfjames · Pair Joined: 01 Aug 2005 Posts: 40

I disagree that the "all in phenominon" is the reason for all the bad beats. While it is true the more people in the hand the more possibilty of bad beats. However, I find that even if you are heads up things don't really add up. There are just some lucky players that can push all in with nothing and win. Whether it's because their computers are in sync with the servers or they have a program to know what community cards will come out. I mean say your playing 10 heads up matches and all 10 times you get AA and your opponent gets KK. Your winning percentage should be 80%. This 80% is not some bogus number someone cooked up. It's a number generated by mathematical probabilities. The only real way for the KK to win against AA is to get sets which is only 1 in 8 times. Ok there is the possibility of a flush if the suits aren't overlapping and straight, but the probability you'd hit a flush or straight are slim even if you had 2 cards helping you, but a one card filler? Highly doubtful. Even if you were to get unlucky with the AA your winning percentage should be 70% above, however i see it under 70% maybe in the 60% range. Any time someone goes up against another heads up with higher pocket pair he should be winning 80% of the time. Often times i see too many of the lower pocket pairs hitting sets. sets sets. There wouldn't be as many complaints if players make the right calls and still win most of the time. So where is the profit? If i won 8 times i don't mind 1 or 2 bad beats. Still leaves me with 80% profit, but this isn't the case. Even with the right calls i win only 60% of the time almost a coin flip. So there is really no profit at all. This is why there are so many complaints

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