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dead n drawin · Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 3:37 pm Post subject: Educating oneself about odds

If there is one thing I know for sure it is that if one plays the odds in poker properly then in the long run they will succeed. I'm thinking that the leak in my game may have something to do with odds. I use the classic mathematical formula for determining my odds of winning based on my outs; however I don't know much about odds when it comes to making calls with middle pair and such. I think my problem is that I either call when the odds are not in my favor, or I fold to easily when they may just be closer in my favor then I think. Does anybody know a website or something that can educate me about these odds? I would appreciate anything that people have to say about this as I can admittedly say it is one thing in hold em that I am not too sure about.

BOYNAMEDSUE · Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:01 pm Post subject:

I don't think there are exact odds for what you're talking about.

Calling with middle pair is more about instinct, and pot odds than how many outs you have. If the pot is 1500, and your opponent bets 250, than I'd call with middle pair, 'cause I'm getting 5-1 pot odds, and it's just too tempting. In this istuation you'll be wrong many times, but you'll be right enough to make it a winning play.

Of course, you can always raise to see where you're at, too.

idonkeykickyou · High Card Joined: 21 Aug 2005 Posts: 10

Like he said there's not a viable mathematical or exact way I know of to calculate odds there. One great thing to look at is betting patterns, particularly the size of bets when it comes to the flop. If he tends to bet the pot with top pair but only half with a weaker hand you might be in a position to reraise. If he is very aggressive and always follows up his preflop raise with a bet on the flop, you're middle pair could be good as well. Another thing to look at is suited vs. unsuited flops. A flop with 2 suited cards and a 1/3 or 1/4 pot bet generally indicates a flush draw, I would almost always reraise in this situation and I think you'll find the opponent will most often fold. Also if there is a rainbow flop (3 different suits) and say q or k high and someone bets the pot that will often indicate weakness heads up. A great hand could be checked at little risk and disguise the hand, and more often than not a pot size bet won't be needed to take down the pot. Against an aggressive player a pot size bet at this type of flop can often be reraised.

Just my 2 cents,

Donkey

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