Online Poker Forum - Official Wsop Main Event 2009 Rail Thread ***SPOILER ALERT (once event starts)***

 
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nekotec
I Hate Min-Raises


Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Posts: 1315
Location: Mexico

PostPosted: Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:36 pm    Post subject: Official Wsop Main Event 2009 Rail Thread ***SPOILER ALERT (once event starts)*** Reply with quote

its that time of year once again, and my fav poker tournament is just around the corner.
last year, there was a very interesting final table thread. Hope this year is just as interesting.

So ill start with my predictions,
-brenes should be ITM but will bust out around 150th,
-matusow and i think mikkelsen should put good performances in the main event
-im hoping negreanu finally makes it really deep on this tourni
-of course a not so famous pro should final table this like benefield or vitaly lunkin who has been running really hot this wsop

phil hellmuth and ivey bust out early
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Pil Sung
Straight Flush


Joined: 06 Mar 2006
Posts: 370
Location: Georgia

PostPosted: Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hellmuth will not make the money, and of course it will be with a river outdraw. I look forward to see the blowup on ESPN.

Matusow will not cash this year. Nothing against him, just a prediction.

I agree a "mid-level" pro will make the final table.

Daniel won't go far, he calls too much and rides the rollercoaster too much for this event.

Day one chip leader will bust out on day 3.

4 people will wear FT gear and only 3 wearing PS will make the final table. Smile
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vectorspace
Royal Flush


Joined: 17 Dec 2007
Posts: 918
Location: Texas

PostPosted: Fri Jul 03, 2009 1:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pil Sung wrote:
Hellmuth will not make the money, and of course it will be with a river outdraw. I look forward to see the blowup on ESPN.

Matusow will not cash this year. Nothing against him, just a prediction.

I agree a "mid-level" pro will make the final table.

Daniel won't go far, he calls too much and rides the rollercoaster too much for this event.

Day one chip leader will bust out on day 3.

4 people will wear FT gear and only 3 wearing PS will make the final table. Smile


I agree with you on most points. Take any person you like. It would be good to bet that they don't make the money. Only 10% of the field cashes, so even good players like Daniel, Mike, and Phil are underdogs to cashing. I'm estimating that "name pros" will make up something like 5% to 10% of the field. Therefore, it's safe to assume that probably 1 will make the final table or at least the final 2 tables.

You are absolutely right about the day 1 chip leader not making it deep. Sklansky wrote an excellent article about why this has never happened and likely never will. Basically anyone who is chipleader on day 1 probably got there by gambling way too much and not playing solid poker. That will catch up to them eventually and they will donk off their stacks. Anyone remember Dmitri Nobles? Jamie Gold is the only exception I can think of, he just never went cold.

BTW, I'm taking Erik Seidel to win it all or at least go the deepest out of all the name pros. Gotta pick someone and I think he's due. He's great at all of the games, but truly excellent at NLHE tournaments.
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nekotec
I Hate Min-Raises


Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Posts: 1315
Location: Mexico

PostPosted: Fri Jul 03, 2009 3:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vectorspace wrote:


Jamie Gold is the only exception I can think of, he just never went cold.


i agree with you, especially on the chip leader donking out in around the 3 day just after the money

however jamie gold wasnt chip leader during first day but until day 3 and on
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