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LostOstrich · Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 6:03 pm Post subject: The Ostridge Playing Experiment

My $1 Sitting Out Experiment was a failure, in that I lost money. However, it was also a success, in that I learned that it is possible to consistently reach the final 25-30% of a low-stakes 90-man DS SNG without playing a single hand. I also showed a profit over the 20 games in which I actually played, despite there being a 25% rake on top of the $1 buy-in.

I shall now apply this information.

I reasoned that, given that I can make the top 25% without playing a single hand, I will be in a strong position approaching the end-game if I simply play ultra-TAG for the first hour or so. Folding all but premium starting hands, and value-betting like crazy when I have a monster, will surely improve my chances. Also, if instead of simply blinding out, I actually play correct short-stacked poker when my stack shrinks below an M> of 10, I will increase my chances of cashing by either stealing blinds or doubling up.

I'm going to play a total of 40 of the $5, 90-man DS SNGs using the above> guidelines. I've chosen the $5 games for two main reasons:

- The rake is only 10%
- The standard of play will be slightly higher. I see this as an advantage, as concepts such as fold equity in the late stages don't really apply as effectively when there are a large number of fishy calling stations at the table.

Tournament poker is situational. It's therefore difficult to set out, and stick rigidly to, specific guidelines for starting hand requirements, calling / shoving ranges etc. Basically, the following will generally apply:

- M>20, over 30 players remain: I'll fold all except JJ+ and AK. I'll open for 5xBB with these hands, more if there are limpers. If the pot is raised, I'll re-raise x4.
- M>10, over 30 remain: My opening range will widen to 55+, AT+. I'll probably be prepared to go all the way if called or re-popped.
- M<10 (remaining players irrelevant): I'll be looking to shove whenever I'm first to enter a pot, unless I have a miserable hand in early position.
- 19-30 players remain: If I have a good stack, I'll relentlessly bully the table wherever I see weakness. If I'm short, I'll be shoving wherever I have good FE or a solid hand.
- Beyond bubble: My usual, aggressive style. Open with a wide range, be prepared to go all the way unless I feel I'm clearly crushed.

Essentially, the above is the starting draft of my strategy. I hope to end the experiment having made a good profit, and having refined the strategy sufficiently to arrive at a definitive "Idiot's Guide" to mechanically beating these games.

Again, I shall post all 40 results below. I'll also post any strategic tweaks that I decide to make along the way.

#1: 10th = $9.90
#2: 18th = $8.10
#3: 22nd = $0
#4:

dcdoorknob · Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 6:26 pm Post subject:

I understand why your M<10 shoving strategy works so well in the 90 man KO turbos, but I do question applying this same strategy (so it appears) to a non-turbo, non knockout tournament. It seems like this strategy would have you shoving your 4000 chip stack with a QT or A5 from early/middle position with the blinds at 300/150, and I just don't see how that is a good thing given the different tourney structure.

That said, I'd be surprised if the strategy as a whole didn't show a profit in your hands given the level of play in these things, I'm just skeptical about a few of the particulars.

LostOstrich · Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 6:33 pm Post subject:

LostOstrich · Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 6:19 pm Post subject:

Well, early days but this is a good start. I stuck to the system last night, and made the money. I'm now playing my second of these, and am chip leader at the first break, despite only playing about 6 hands in an hour.

LostOstrich · Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 3:48 pm Post subject:

I've been hoping to start the third of my $5 90-man games today, but I've been registered for over 90 minutes now and there's only 32 players.

Any forumers interested in joining in? Search for my $5 SNG.

ynkpnt · Royal Flush Joined: 15 Mar 2008 Posts: 568

BUMP for update? Confused

LostOstrich · Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 1:46 pm Post subject:

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