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srpromo
Pair
Joined: 30 Apr 2008
Posts: 25
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 Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 9:06 pm Post subject: It's painfully obvious that I just don't really understand this whole "math" thing at all |
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What % of the time will two players be dealt a pocket pair in the same hand on a 9 player table?
The following article was written by Brian Alspach
http://www.math.sfu.ca/people/profile.php?ID=alspach_b
He holds a phd in Mathematics from UC Santa Barbara. He is professor Emeritus of mathematics at Simon Fraser University.
From his article:
In my article entitled ``I'm In ... No, I'm Out: Part 5'' (Poker Digest, Vol. 2, No. 18), I gave a table of probabilities for various numbers of pocket pairs. In a hold'em game with nine players, the probability for precisely two players being dealt pocket pairs is .082. For 10 players it is .096, and for 11 players it is .11.
Let's concentrate on the 10-handed game. There is a probability of .096 that precisely two players are dealt pocket pairs, but some of the time the two players have pairs of the same rank. Clearly, in the latter situation, no one can make a set. What we really need is the probability two players are dealt pocket pairs of distinct ranks. We can use the .096 figure and proportionality to get a very good approximation.
http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/mag86/
IABoomer is a fullitlt moderator and apparent donkey, this is his conclusion to what % of the time two players will have a pp.
You've gotten the answer. 35% of the time you have a pair, so will someone else at a 9 handed table.
lol
Again, one is a phd holder of mathematics, one is heehaw reincarnated as a fulltilt moderator.
I ask a question about what players have observed. Statistically players should be dealt a pp 6% of the time, and out of those hands less than 9% of the time someone else will also be dealt a pocket pair. This of course is backed up by a phd holder in mathematics.
I wanted to know if players on Fulltilt had observed a prevalence of pp vs pp. It should be less than 1 in 10 dealt pp hands to one player where that player would face an opposing pocket pair regardless of whether its higher or lower.
This IABoomer, who is also a moderator on this forum feels that its actually 1 in 3. And such, has noticed nothing out of the ordinary as Fulltilt is beyond reproach.
I like everyone else has experienced bad beats at the hand of Fulltilt. That however is just poker. Im not losing at the tables, im not disenfranchised, Im not crying about the game being rigged. And yet, the moderator has locked my other thread because he feels he has a mastery of mathematics, in addition to statistics and probability, and REFUSES to accept that even his incorrect answer of two players being dealt a pp 35% of the time is normal, but that it is over FOUR TIMES the statistical probability.
This response he gave pretty much sums up the caliber of moderators and people so sheepishly loyal to fulltilt that it boggles the mind.
Okay, this has gotten beyond pointless.
How could it be pointless to ask players for their observations?
First, you're not going to get access to the raw hand history data on the server, so you personally will never see how many times two players get dealt pocket pairs.
I see, since its a secret that no one can see, we really shouldnt even talk about it, because the almighty fulltilt poker is infallible.
Second, there are countless players who play hundreds of thousands of hands and analyze those hands looking for problems, patterns, leaks, etc. If they noticed that their pocket pairs were running into other pocket pairs more than expected, you'd think they'd mention it here, on 2+2, P5s, Neverwin, or countless other forums.
Makes sense, if no one brings it up everything must be great, except isnt this someone bringing it up? Are you saying that if it hasnt been mentioned than its all imaginary? In any case it would be impossible unless both hands go to the river for anything to be analyzed, OR if a player had access to the raw data.
To the best of my knowledge, nobody has ever posted anything of the sort, but you're welcome to search those resources and prove me wrong, if possible.
Finally, even if TilterRick were to get together with the software people, generate a query and run it against the millions of hands dealt here, you wouldn't trust the results anyway if they disagreed with your flawed theory. So really, what's the point of this thread?
So youre defense is if the fox checks the henhouse and comes back and says everything is fine than I should follow your lead and close my eyes and go back to sleep?
IF any player here has observed pp's being dealt to two players with any sort of frequency above 9% then something is wrong with Fulltilt. If youre like IABoomer and see nothing wrong with two players being dealt a pp 35% of the time then your Fulltilt Donk, and they rely on your ignorance and their moderators will praise you as you play on a system that is broken and ill developed.
In either case the facts should be known to poker players, and you should start paying attention to hands that are dealt as this is most likely just one example of a problem.
If by chance the raw data logs were made available to any independent university for study and the number came back correct then great, lets keep playing. And there really is no reason for this not to happen since its in Fulltilts best interest to have the confidence of every player that it is in fact very close to realistic play. I have a feeling however that IABoomer would disagree.. after all Fulltilt is like a god, it cant have any flaws. |
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fire_eyes_2k
The Burn Card
Joined: 18 Jan 2006
Posts: 3469
Location: London
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 9:20 pm Post subject: |
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To put it simply, your mathematician is wrong, or he's describing the odds of someone having the same PP as you do. I don't know which, as its unclear.
If you had any kind of poker or mathematical ability, you'd realise that.
Also, here:
| Spromo wrote: |
Second, there are countless players who play hundreds of thousands of hands and analyze those hands looking for problems, patterns, leaks, etc. If they noticed that their pocket pairs were running into other pocket pairs more than expected, you'd think they'd mention it here, on 2+2, P5s, Neverwin, or countless other forums.
Makes sense, if no one brings it up everything must be great, except isnt this someone bringing it up? Are you saying that if it hasnt been mentioned than its all imaginary? In any case it would be impossible unless both hands go to the river for anything to be analyzed, OR if a player had access to the raw data. |
You're not actually answering the point. The point is that it has been looked into, and proven (beyond reasonable doubt) that the system works fine. |
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srpromo
Pair
Joined: 30 Apr 2008
Posts: 25
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 9:37 pm Post subject: |
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| fire_eyes_2k wrote: |
To put it simply, your mathematician is wrong, or he's describing the odds of someone having the same PP as you do. I don't know which, as its unclear.
If you had any kind of poker or mathematical ability, you'd realise that.
Also, here:
| Spromo wrote: |
Second, there are countless players who play hundreds of thousands of hands and analyze those hands looking for problems, patterns, leaks, etc. If they noticed that their pocket pairs were running into other pocket pairs more than expected, you'd think they'd mention it here, on 2+2, P5s, Neverwin, or countless other forums.
Makes sense, if no one brings it up everything must be great, except isnt this someone bringing it up? Are you saying that if it hasnt been mentioned than its all imaginary? In any case it would be impossible unless both hands go to the river for anything to be analyzed, OR if a player had access to the raw data. |
You're not actually answering the point. The point is that it has been looked into, and proven (beyond reasonable doubt) that the system works fine. |
I notice that your personal banner was designed by the aforementioned donkey.
To put it simply my mathematician is wrong? lol Surely you can do better than that.
And no, I have seen no evidence at all that anything has been looked into or proven. Please post what youve seen. |
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fire_eyes_2k
The Burn Card
Joined: 18 Jan 2006
Posts: 3469
Location: London
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 9:50 pm Post subject: |
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| srpromo wrote: |
I notice that your personal banner was designed by the aforementioned donkey.
Yeah, he did an nice version of one I'd created. I'm thinking of getting a new one though.
To put it simply my mathematician is wrong? lol Surely you can do better than that.
Well the chance of a player being dealt any pocket pair is 1 in 17. The rest is grade school math. Surely you can manage it.
And no, I have seen no evidence at all that anything has been looked into or proven. Please post what youve seen.
Frankly I can't be bothered to find an exact link. Go to www.twoplustwo.com and ask there as most of the links are on their site somewhere.
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srpromo
Pair
Joined: 30 Apr 2008
Posts: 25
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 10:01 pm Post subject: |
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| fire_eyes_2k wrote: |
| srpromo wrote: |
I notice that your personal banner was designed by the aforementioned donkey.
Yeah, he did an nice version of one I'd created. I'm thinking of getting a new one though.
To put it simply my mathematician is wrong? lol Surely you can do better than that.
Well the chance of a player being dealt any pocket pair is 1 in 17. The rest is grade school math. Surely you can manage it.
And no, I have seen no evidence at all that anything has been looked into or proven. Please post what youve seen.
Frankly I can't be bothered to find an exact link. Go to www.twoplustwo.com and ask there as most of the links are on their site somewhere.
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1 in 17 = 5.8% which is exactly what i said in my original post. Statistically players should be dealt a pp 6% of the time. The rest is grade school math, and not only I but the good professor managed it and posted it just fine. You are the one who is convinced that he is just wrong (for reasons unknown).
And posting a web site link to a poker portal is not evidence that anything has been looked into, much less proven. |
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fire_eyes_2k
The Burn Card
Joined: 18 Jan 2006
Posts: 3469
Location: London
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 10:20 pm Post subject: |
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| srpromo wrote: |
1 in 17 = 5.8% which is exactly what i said in my original post. Statistically players should be dealt a pp 6% of the time. The rest is grade school math, and not only I but the good professor managed it and posted it just fine. You are the one who is convinced that he is just wrong (for reasons unknown).
Now multiply by the number of players at the table...
You keep on changing the question you're asking, which is causing some confusion.
The chances of any 2 players at a table having a pocket pair is between 30% and 35%. It's basically 9/17 (chances of a player having a PP) multiplied by 8/17 (chances of a different player having a PP)
The chances of a particular player having a PP and any one of his opponents having a PP of some kind are 1/17 (chances of player 1 having a PP) multiplied by 8/17 (chances of players 2-9 having a PP). I think that works out to be about 2.6%.
And posting a web site link to a poker portal is not evidence that anything has been looked into, much less proven.
I'm telling you to go and do your own research, and am kindly pointing you in the right direction.
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Flying_Kiwi
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 6525
Location: somewhere spacific
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 10:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Can a mod please change the title to something like "Another whiney rigged post" or "Watch this retard try and understand grade school math", something like that? |
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srpromo
Pair
Joined: 30 Apr 2008
Posts: 25
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 10:53 pm Post subject: |
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| fire_eyes_2k wrote: |
| srpromo wrote: |
1 in 17 = 5.8% which is exactly what i said in my original post. Statistically players should be dealt a pp 6% of the time. The rest is grade school math, and not only I but the good professor managed it and posted it just fine. You are the one who is convinced that he is just wrong (for reasons unknown).
Now multiply by the number of players at the table...
You keep on changing the question you're asking, which is causing some confusion.
The chances of any 2 players at a table having a pocket pair is between 30% and 35%. It's basically 9/17 (chances of a player having a PP) multiplied by 8/17 (chances of a different player having a PP)
The chances of a particular player having a PP and any one of his opponents having a PP of some kind are 1/17 (chances of player 1 having a PP) multiplied by 8/17 (chances of players 2-9 having a PP). I think that works out to be about 2.6%.
And posting a web site link to a poker portal is not evidence that anything has been looked into, much less proven.
I'm telling you to go and do your own research, and am kindly pointing you in the right direction.
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lol, you think you just multiply the number of players by the % of any one player getting a pp and thats the odds of TWO players getting a pp?
HAHAHA
what a joke.
And i havent changed the question at all. Ive asked whether players have noticed a high frequency of pp's being dealt to two or players in the same hand. Its not complex or anything. Statistically it should happen less than 9% of the time player is dealt a pp. So if youre dealt at pp 10 times you should face another pp 1 out of those ten, not almost 4 out of those ten. Thats retarded.
IF while playing on Fulltilt you notice that its very frequent that two pp hands face each other then something is wrong. It should happen less than 9% of any one player being dealt a pocket pair, which happens 6% of hands dealt.
To break this down into something you can understand if you played 1000 hands 60 hands should be pp, out of those 60 you might face another pocket pair 6 times, not over 20 which is what youre saying. |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8151
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 11:07 pm Post subject: |
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| srpromo wrote: |
| Statistically it should happen less than 9% of the time player is dealt a pp. So if youre dealt at pp 10 times you should face another pp 1 out of those ten, not almost 4 out of those ten. Thats retarded. |
Here's the thing that's getting you confused. The 9% is the chance of two players at the table being dealt a PP in the same hand and the 35% is the chance that another player has a PP once you've been dealt one. In the first example there are two things that need to come into place, first one player needs to be dealt a PP and then a 2nd player needs to be dealt a PP as well. In the second example, you having a PP means that the first part is already in place. Now all that's left is for someone else to pick up a PP as well.
You holding a PP drastically increases the probability of two or more PPs being dealt in a particular hand, since all that needs to happen now is that one of 9 players gets dealt one of the remaining 72 combinations that result in a pocket pair. Once you already have a pair, the chance of two or more pocket pairs being out that hand isn't much lower than the chance that one of your opponents would've been dealt a pair if you had been sitting out. |
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fire_eyes_2k
The Burn Card
Joined: 18 Jan 2006
Posts: 3469
Location: London
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 11:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Nice work whoever changed the title. |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8151
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 11:30 pm Post subject: |
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| fire_eyes_2k wrote: |
| Nice work whoever changed the title. |
I agree. I like it so much that I'm considering taking credit for it. |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 6431
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Mon May 05, 2008 8:06 pm Post subject: |
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| i wish fish would spend less time poorly analysing math they don't understand and more time just playing so that they lose their money too me. |
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bagguspipus
Pair
Joined: 18 Mar 2008
Posts: 24
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Loopholes202
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 21 Jan 2008
Posts: 2145
Location: Washington
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| Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 10:41 am Post subject: |
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Look. Math is not something that can be argued. So stop it.
And if you DO want to discuss the odds of something do it in a non-abrasive way.
In your last forum you responded to everyone saying "You don't understand"
That is not the way to do it.
Try being kinder, and have an actual discussion.
Don't be ignorante and arrogant and think you are the best in the world. |
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live4freerolls
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 23 Nov 2006
Posts: 2485
Location: Grindin
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| Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 6:44 pm Post subject: |
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| bagguspipus wrote: |
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNz-Duyx3Lc
Whats the odds of that happening? |
If you were looking for a serious answer it's 50/50 it either happens or it doesn't. |
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