Online Poker Forum - Is varience fixed? HELP US!

frogace23 · High Card Joined: 22 Jun 2008 Posts: 2

Check out the graphs on sharkscope for these two accounts:

frogace23
frognasty

Thats myself and my parents accounts, we have read the same books and play the same style of sng poker; basically tight-aggressive. I personally can get a 97 out of 100 on SnG wiz easily, so i know it pretty well.

My question is- How the hell does this happen? the graphs look basically identical- successful early and then nose diving the second half. My style of poker has never changed and my dad says the same thing, I continuously get coolered and I also began to feel like my opponents could see my cards (of course this is not true) but i certainly seems like it.

I have tried to persevere thru these waves of variance, but these are not "10 game swings" which everyone says are common. These are hundreds of games of variance. We are both winning players early on.
I can't emphasize it enough on how my style of play has not changed (tight aggressive is pretty tough to mess up) and have reviewed hand histories and feel like i have made solid plays. I don't know what to do next and am about ready to throw in the towel and switch sites. Anyone experience anything like this with the same consistency of downward spiral?

JazzOne · Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2008 8:08 pm Post subject:

I play $11 and $22 SnGs. I've played a few thousand tournaments. I'm no pro, but definitely not a beginner either. Take a look at my Sharkscope graph. I have had downswings that lasted 250 games. I'm not saying that I lost all 250; that would be ridiculous. However, there are losing trends in my history that lasted hundreds of games. I'm a winning player, and the databases prove it. Variance was the toughest aspect of the game for me to deal with, primarily because it is completely beyond my control. I've lost $450 in the past four days. No big deal. I play well within my bankroll, and I'll just make it back next week.

The only advice I will give you is this: Don't be so sure you're making the best plays. Unless your ROI is 20% or higher (for STTs), you can stand to improve.

Out of curiosity, what stakes are you playing?

frogace23 · High Card Joined: 22 Jun 2008 Posts: 2

No doubt I may not be making the best plays, there is always room for improvement, but I don't feel like I have made bad plays, just the standard plays that have worked in the past. I play 10s and 20s just like you. I have attempted a few times to move up to 30s but with little success and always move back down. I dont play outside my bankroll, and usually sustain 40 or 50 buy ins.

Thanks for the reply

Online Poker Forum at Full Tilt Poker