Online Poker Forum - HU sng, 1st hand, villan wants 2 go 50/50

spike420211

Full Tilt Poker Game #14317335178: $2 + 0.15 Heads Up Sit & Go (105373184), Table 1 - 10/20 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:52:12 ET - 2009/08/28
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to spike420211 [Jd Td]
hooru420 raises to 1,500, and is all in
spike420211 calls 1,480, and is all in

**From ProPokerTools**
Hold'em Simulation
2,097,572,400 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
JdTd 57.53% 1,177,887,186 57,602,534
** 42.47% 862,082,680 57,602,534

[**-2 random cards, obv. villain's range... i could almost rule out TT-AA,
AQ, AK, etc.]

hooru420 shows [8c 5s]
spike420211 shows [Jd Td]
*** FLOP *** [2h 2s 4s]
*** TURN *** [2h 2s 4s] [Jc]
*** RIVER *** [2h 2s 4s Jc] [6s]
hooru420 shows a pair of Twos
spike420211 shows two pair, Jacks and Twos
spike420211 wins the pot (3,000) with two pair, Jacks and Twos

1st hand [only 1 too] in this.
good call, or no???

spike420211 · Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 11:01 am Post subject:

more exhaustive research:
$2.15/$4.00= 53.75% minimum win rate for breakeven
$5.25/$10.00=52.5% minimum win rate for breakeven
etc.
I should factor this in too, right?

note: the margins get better the higher u go up...
$5100/$10,000=51%

uconnrounder · Two Pair Joined: 13 Jul 2008 Posts: 51

Yes, you should factor the rake in. Any play above that breakeven line in a HU sng is fine as HU tournament play is strictly based on pot odds. However, unless I'm reading this wrong, you don't know for sure that he's sliding ATC right? You just think he'd slide any cards cause this is the first hand of a small stakes hu sng and he is an idiot? Against someone who I don't know shoves ATC first hand, I fold this because you're behind most hands that people shove. Obviously it's a correct call if you know he's shoving any 2.

spike420211 · Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 11:50 am Post subject:

HuJwang · Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 11:31 pm Post subject:

wtf?

obviously he's retarded, so fold and maximize your ROI by trapping him later.

spike420211 · Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 2:42 am Post subject:

lurgertor · Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 3:26 pm Post subject:

Ok, if you know he's shoving ATC and not an idiot, (forgetting for the moment that, that would be contradictory) the call would be correct, otherwise its an easy fold. Therefore my cards would be in the muck before his chips are in the pot. lol

Parkinho · High Card Joined: 19 Jul 2008 Posts: 11 Location: England

I'm not calling with J,10 on the first hand pre-flop. Perhaps I'm overly conservative but I couldn't be 100% comfortable ruling out any hands pre-flop with no reads on the first hand of a tournament. That said, the shove from your opponent would be pretty dumb regardless of their holding in terms of basic risk/reward and what you would want to do with a given hand accordingly. Whether they have 7,2o or A,A where is the benefit in shoving in this situation? You are looking to win a tiny amount with the possibility of your tournament being over or hoping that your opponent has 1010+ so that you can double up (in the event that your opponent is pretty tight). The problem with J,10 for me is that it isn't quite far enough up the "strong" hand range to justify putting my entire tourney at stake with no read whatsoever. That said, glad to see you profited with your call. We all need to take liberties with absolute junk now and then in HU confrontations but to risk your entire stack on the first hand of a tourney with your opponent's holding is decidedly risky for just a little more than zero reward.

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