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cubbies760
Drawing Dead
Joined: 19 Oct 2006
Posts: 12157
Location: Sailing Away...
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 Posted: Wed Aug 12, 2009 11:03 pm Post subject: |
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| CitizenCain wrote: |
| Zophar wrote: |
| But with nothing invested, ,FR, w/a bet/raise in front of me on a paired board w/2nd low draw and NFD, I still don't see enough equity. The kind of action in front is pretty descriptive. |
I was thinking that the action would allow us to drive out any other low draws with a shove (giving us a very good draw to the low pot: nut/2nd nut), and probably a very strong draw to the high pot as well - OESFD, A hi flush.
I don't normally like to play drawing hands in O8, and almost always chuck them against a paired board, but, IMO, the strnegth of our draws to both pot halves justifies the push.
And frankly, at this limit, you'll see people 3-betting overpairs in O8 (and the donk min raise PF makes me feel this is a distinct possibility), so I think there's even a small (but significant) chance we're not even facing trips, let alone a FH, making our massive draws all that more valuable, IMO, if we even get called, which isn't a certainty at this limit.
So part of my decision is level-dependent, as well. May not have enough equity at any level beyond the micros, but I think we do at the micros in this spot. |
The player that you're trying to push out is sitting on a $5 stack, so he's getting it in every time. We're gonna be putting our ~$20 stack up against the big stack, in hopes of chopping up the couple bucks currently in the pot, as well as the small stack's $5. I think the big stack has at least a naked 4 just about always, or 45/A24/44/55/A3 enough times that it makes our hand look pretty lousy vs. a chance at chopping up a pot with a small amount of dead money.
Our chance at scooping is very minimal.
On top of that, let's not forget that we have absolutely no hand at the moment, and we're still drawing on all accounts. |
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Zophar
Moderator
Joined: 26 Oct 2005
Posts: 4352
Location: blogging a bit, again
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| Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2009 12:05 am Post subject: |
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Unless MP2 is capable of isolating, even at this level you don't see many people jamming that flop w/o a 4. I'd think getting in here at best is neutral EV. Without any player descriptions, as a default fold>jam.
As3s7s8h 24.06% 69,849 159,920 6,970 82,136 21,510
4*** 44.60% 149,642 374,346 6,381 4,566 13,375
A2** 31.33% 45,915 55,498 7,460 292,183 27,659
As3s7s8h 30.86% 35,992 152,432 21,559 33,823 283,380
4*** 45.86% 157,686 379,282 5,455 16,539 10,210
A3** 23.28% 20,062 44,251 21,909 72,467 284,472 |
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LitUp43
Straight
Joined: 03 Aug 2009
Posts: 102
Location: Pennsylvania
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| Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2009 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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Ty everyone for the input, tbh i knew my flush would be no good unless the 2s or 6s came. Mathematically a bad call, but an OESFD, i wanted to see the turn and river.
Last edited by LitUp43 on Thu Aug 13, 2009 12:35 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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LitUp43
Straight
Joined: 03 Aug 2009
Posts: 102
Location: Pennsylvania
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| Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2009 12:30 pm Post subject: |
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| Autosuggestion wrote: |
I'd be more concerned with what MP2 is raising with then. Do you think he raises the nut low draw? Does he raise with only a 4?
If this was 6-max, or the stacks were shallower, then I would probably just get it in. Here, I think it's best to fold. |
The stack the player had went from $50 to $71 in a matter of a half hour and the hands I saw her show led me to believe she wasn't raising here with a low draw, she had nothing less than little full, possibly an over pair to go with it.
Also, what I left out of the hand in the beginning and should have mentioned sooner was that MP2 did MRPF so that gave some more information about her hand away. 45qq or 45kk or even 55jj wasn't out of the question. My reads are usually pretty solid except when i get tired. Odds calculating could use some work even though I was a math major in college. But yeah I appreciate everyone's input. |
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CitizenCain
Three Pair
Joined: 23 Oct 2006
Posts: 2474
Location: Behind a huge stack of chips.
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| Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2009 7:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Zophar wrote: |
Unless MP2 is capable of isolating, even at this level you don't see many people jamming that flop w/o a 4. I'd think getting in here at best is neutral EV. Without any player descriptions, as a default fold>jam.
As3s7s8h 24.06% 69,849 159,920 6,970 82,136 21,510
4*** 44.60% 149,642 374,346 6,381 4,566 13,375
A2** 31.33% 45,915 55,498 7,460 292,183 27,659
As3s7s8h 30.86% 35,992 152,432 21,559 33,823 283,380
4*** 45.86% 157,686 379,282 5,455 16,539 10,210
A3** 23.28% 20,062 44,251 21,909 72,467 284,472 |
Well, damn. I was sure we'd be on the marginally + side of expected equity, not the marginally - one.
So, that said, I'd definitely shove in this spot, though math says we probably shouldn't. |
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-BBAnimalz-
Three of a Kind
Joined: 06 Jun 2008
Posts: 86
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 10:04 am Post subject: |
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| fold ur most likely crushed in both pots. unless theres history the 5$ raiser normally has a boat here and the low might be good here but from my experience at the same stakes ur at best splitting the low pot. |
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