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The Detonator2 Pair
Joined: 25 Aug 2009 Posts: 24
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Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:46 pm Post subject: WSOP Final Table Chances (Spoiler if you have been living under a rock) |
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This topic is specific to Phil Ivey, but I didnt want to put his name in the title for all of those people who are living under the rock
For all the people who visit the WSOP website and see the poll on who will win in Novemeber, you will notice Ivey is leading the pack by a mere 70% at least, with a total of 78% and the closest rival Schulman and Moon both around 5%
Its no secret why this is, he is the most popular and highly regarded poker player in the world, let alone the final table, and everyones favourite
But what are Iveys real chance of winning the Main Event?
If we remove ourselves from fascination with the man, all we see is a poker player with a severely depleted ship stack.
He is coming with a little over 9 million in chips, while chip leader is sitting pretty with well over 50 million
We know Ivey has the skill to beat these players and his presence at the table will be enough to scare people out of pots to allow him to build a chip stack, but is 9 million really enough, considering what he is facing? Does he really have enough chips to play his aggresive style and steal some pots
With the break between then and now, every single person at that table will have studied Ivey in the countless televised poker shows hes been on. Sought after countless opinoins and stories of people who have played with Ivey, while what does Ivey know about Moon? The first time we saw Moon was last week for a brief moment
Does Ivey know his first name is David?
No doubt Ivey would make the right preperation but really the information on a lot of his opponents isnt out there
And what if someone like Schulman feels the best way to approach this is to eliminate Ivey while he can? What if all of them feel this way? What if there is an unspoken understanding to get Ivey out of the pots and bully his blinds? To put him all in every time he enters a pot?
It is literally Ivey against the rest in this situation, can he really overcome that?
When we really think about it, Ivey is going to need good cards fast, if he is card dead for the first hour I would imagine it pretty much over for him.
On the flip side people may be to scared to put chips into Ivey and stay out of pots so he doesnt build a stack, but again with all this time in between surely people would have come to the conclusion playing to win is a lot better than playing not to lose isnt it
So what is your opinion? Do you REALLY think Ivey can overcome such a depleted stack against great players? (they are great players, people dont get to the final table playing rubbish)
I love the man as much as any other, he is great for the game and is living the dream we all want to and I will be rooting for him this november as well, but in my head I know its going to take more than Phil Ivey to beat the remaining 8 players at that table |
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aarosakura Message Board Junkie
Joined: 26 Mar 2009 Posts: 1453 Location: In my bed all warm D:
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Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:46 pm Post subject: |
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3 years ago,allen cunningham hit the final table with a decent stack. After a huge bluff,allen was down to a mere 9 million. He shipped it all in with 99 and was called by jamie gold holding KJ.
All phil ivey needs to do is lose a coin flip and he's gone. As much as i'd love him to win,if he isn't able to win the flips he'll be out early. |
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jeffr8 Inspector Gadget
Joined: 22 Oct 2006 Posts: 3633 Location: On a boat
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Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:55 pm Post subject: |
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| Joe Cada will win. |
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adam27x Message Board Junkie
Joined: 02 Aug 2008 Posts: 4963 Location: New York/New Jersey
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Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 9:30 pm Post subject: |
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| aarosakura wrote: |
3 years ago,allen cunningham hit the final table with a decent stack. After a huge bluff,allen was down to a mere 9 million. He shipped it all in with 99 and was called by jamie gold holding KJ.
All phil ivey needs to do is lose a coin flip and he's gone. As much as i'd love him to win,if he isn't able to win the flips he'll be out early. |
pretty sure he shipped TT that hand |
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DforDissent Message Board Junkie
Joined: 30 Mar 2009 Posts: 1224 Location: on the verge of figuring out my "best game to 100% focus on" finallyforrealthistimeImeanit
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Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2009 10:02 am Post subject: |
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| aarosakura wrote: |
All phil ivey needs to do is win a coin flip and he's in serious contention again
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FYP  |
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phiNny Straight Flush
Joined: 09 Oct 2008 Posts: 438
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Posted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 3:01 pm Post subject: |
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| I think Moon can take it down with the big stack |
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