Online Poker Forum - Set fearing flush. WWYD?

IABoomer · Moderator Joined: 29 Oct 2006 Posts: 8190

This is a 13 player private game on Stars. Top 3 get paid. Vote above, explain below.

Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 6 players -
The Official Hand History

CO: t9110 M = 30.37
BTN: t838 M = 2.79
SB: t2325 M = 7.75
Hero (BB): t3590 M = 11.97
UTG: t2022 M = 6.74
MP: t1615 M = 5.38

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is BB with 9

9

4 folds, SB calls t100, Hero raises to t500, SB calls t300

Flop: (t1000) Q

9

2

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t600, SB calls t600

Turn: (t2200) J

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t800, SB raises to t1225 all in, Hero ... Confused

tracysanders · Posted: Sun Nov 15, 2009 5:57 pm Post subject:

ummm it's only 425 more sir and you have outs

aarosakura · Posted: Sun Nov 15, 2009 5:58 pm Post subject:

You have the pot odds to call and draw into a full house even if you are beat,easy call imo

cubbies760 · Posted: Sun Nov 15, 2009 6:14 pm Post subject:

You're getting 10:1 odds to call, while having full house outs. Folding isn't an option.

I'm confused as to what you're asking about this hand. Do you think that folding the turn is even remotely an option?

If you snapcalled the turn, I like your play all-around.

IABoomer · Moderator Joined: 29 Oct 2006 Posts: 8190

I'm not hero or villain in this hand. It's one I've been discussing with someone and we seem to disagree, so I thought I'd gain some perspective from other sources.

cubbies760 · Posted: Sun Nov 15, 2009 6:32 pm Post subject:

fat rugger · Message Board Junkie Joined: 06 Feb 2009 Posts: 1059

As played I think that hero has to call the check raise on the turn.

If this is the final table there is a very good argument for shoving pre. With three players getting paid and three smaller-similar stacks at the table SB needs a monster to call. And effective stack is only 11BB

Even if Hero is not shoving I think raising to 500 is getting called too often, and I am more than happy to take this pot down pre. Winning now adds more than 10% to our stack. So a raise to 700 would be better. 2.5x is a standard opening raise in a SNG but SB has already commited chips he is going to be likely to call for 1.5bb more.

As played I think I would probably check behind ott. But I do like the flop bet.

bleffo19 · Posted: Sun Nov 15, 2009 8:04 pm Post subject:

i think i bet more OTF - ~750. OTT i just jam. if we are indeed behind we have outs, and it saves us from making *decisions* like this.

as played, however, i don't think there's gonna be much argument of what to do. we're getting nearly 10:1 on our call and have about a ~20-25% to make our FH (not sure what exact percentage is) if villain has flush/straight. plus we have to factor in the times we're actually ahead, when villain shows up with random 2 pair, or combos like Qx with either club or straight draws.

IABoomer · Moderator Joined: 29 Oct 2006 Posts: 8190

Thanks for the feedback. I'd much rather believe that hero was BSing about his holding and double-barreled with AK or something similar. At least then the fold makes some sense.

Danduy · Posted: Mon Nov 16, 2009 12:39 am Post subject:

This is a must call.

You have 10 outs here against a flush with almost 10/1. For this pot odds you can almost even call with a gutshot.

DforDissent · Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2009 2:24 pm Post subject:

KyFried · Message Board Junkie Joined: 07 Jan 2009 Posts: 4837

Some great man once told me folding trips makes baby Jebus cry.

$425 more he's already in it up to his eyeballs, and he won't be out, blinds are'nt too terrible yet, the worst case he has to play nitty for a while with occasional steal and just make a comeback.

Big Slick x13x · Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2009 5:12 pm Post subject:

I"d bet more on the flop and shove the turn. But as played I"m snap calling and I"m happy about it.

adam27x · Posted: Mon Nov 23, 2009 1:21 am Post subject:

raise more pre, bet close to pot OTF, turn is probably just a jam then but this is an easy call

dcdoorknob · Posted: Mon Nov 23, 2009 3:31 pm Post subject:

*Cue Dido*

I will go down with this set.
I won't put my cards down and surrender.
There will be 'I fold' from my lips
I'm calling here, and always will be

(Jamming pre is a valid option tho imo)

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