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adam27x
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Posts: 4955
Location: New York/New Jersey
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 Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 12:26 am Post subject: 50nl - Big draw vs aggro reg |
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Villain is a very laggy 24/22 with a 22.0 AF over 148 hands. I know it hasn't converged but it's pretty clera that he's damn aggro. Not to mention that I got my stack because he opened OTB with JJ, and I 3bet and got it in with AKs.
His range is really wide and he'll barrel a ton of turns whether he should or he shouldn't. Is this line ok (besides that I should probably raise more) ? I think I've got to get it in vs a shove as well.
Grabbed by
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($48.50)
BB ($66.15)
UTG ($50)
UTG+1 ($10.65)
UTG+2 ($55.95)
MP1 ($30.35)
CO ($10)
Hero ($97)
Dealt to Hero 8 6
fold, fold, UTG+2 raises to $1.75, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.75, fold, BB calls $1.25
FLOP ($5.50) J 4 5
BB checks, UTG+2 bets $3, Hero calls $3, BB folds
TURN ($11.50) J 4 5 4
UTG+2 bets $7, Hero raises to $19 |
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Moshiach
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
Posts: 4550
Location: Vic, Australia
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| Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 1:00 am Post subject: |
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| hurr I don't like it, raise calling seems bad and raise folding seems worse, raise/call flop seems fine |
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templar rage
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 30 Dec 2008
Posts: 1531
Location: Rhode Island
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| Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 12:48 pm Post subject: |
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| I'm raising the flop instead of the turn. Big draws like this need to see both cards, so you want to get as much money in early as possible before your equity takes a nosedive. As played, I'd just call the turn. |
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nolan6
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 12 May 2009
Posts: 1378
Location: NothernEngland
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| Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 1:07 pm Post subject: |
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What are you repping here? I think if you were repping a FH then you'd often raise the flop for value and so it allows you to also bluff raise these flops, and then i' don't think he'd expect you to raise the turn with a full house, given the fact that he should know that you know he's aggro and is likely to barrel again. You'd never raise AJ here right? and i think as you flat called the flop your range is weighted towards pot control hands.
If he was to shove then you have little equity, even though he could potentially be shoving a draw himself. whereas by flatting again, you keep a wider range and can use a range of river cards to your advantage, espicially if he checks to you. if hes the kinda guy to barrel the river also then i dont think he's folding to the turn raise, with any draw/TP.
I also like raise/calling the flop. |
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conanav
Royal Flush
Joined: 02 Sep 2007
Posts: 802
Location: Anywhere but here.
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| Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 6:03 pm Post subject: |
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what nolan6 said.
To be honest, that 4s is one of the worse cards to bluff on IMO and the fact that the board paired just stole one of your outs by counting out Jd, since if he pushes back AJ, maybe even KJ will be in his range. |
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adam27x
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Posts: 4955
Location: New York/New Jersey
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| Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 6:29 pm Post subject: |
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I'm well aware that the turn is a horrible card to bluff. What I'm saying is that he doesn't, and he's firing probably 100% of his flop range here (or damn close to it). So I think I have just as much fold equity OTT as I did OTF (which is a TON, btw) except that the pot OTT is way bigger and I get another bet out of him. Raise/calling flop is totally fine, I agree - but against this specific player I thought I could get another barrel out of his air because he's so aggro and because his preflop range is so wide.
Nolan I don't really think this guy is thinking deeply enough to know that I'm polarizing my range here OTT, especially given the fact that we really don't have any postflop history at all.
I get the feeling that this is the type of opponent who has a high positive red line and a low (possibly negative) blue line due to have insanely aggro style of play. |
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nolan6
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 12 May 2009
Posts: 1378
Location: NothernEngland
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| Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 8:06 pm Post subject: |
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Nh, i understand your reasoning now and your bet only has to work quite a little % of the time, and if like you said he isn't thinking too deep about both players ranges, and barrels a lot of turns i really like how you played it, but if he's a good winning aggro dude i think your getting it in behind as he might 3bet shove ATC just because he thinks your line doesn't make a ton of sense and thinks you are exploiting his over aggression, again though you said no history so this likely won't be the case so imo well played.
Your sizing i think is fine also considering your only really trying to fold out better air, or maybe 77,88etc. But i think if he calls and checks the river you could bluff him off it if you have tight image |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 9190
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 8:15 pm Post subject: |
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i prob raise turn bigger for more FE. your sizing is what i would do if i was trying to induce a spaz.
also i don't think you really have odds to call a turn shove. maybe you do if he can stack off with 5x and A high, but against anything where your pair outs are not live it's about even money, and against trips or a made boat you definitely don't have the odds.
though it would be pretty sweet if he shoved a worse straight draw, and your 8 was the best hand. |
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nilgiri
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 3998
Location: Massachusetts
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| Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2009 1:05 am Post subject: |
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| adam27x wrote: |
| I think I have just as much fold equity OTT as I did OTF (which is a TON, btw) except that the pot OTT is way bigger and I get another bet out of him. |
This is faulty thinking in general. When you give an extra card to a player, they have a chance to hit something they didn't have before -- a draw, a pair, maybe 2pr or whatever. In addition, you are still making a proportionally sized raise -- that is, you are not raising the same amount but winning more, you are raising more and winning more.
This is not to say that a delayed bluff raise is always bad. On a nice dry board I would like this so much better against this type of player who is DBing a ton and isn't going to pay much attention to what range you are repping.
But on this board it's easy to think you have a draw, and he isn't likely to give up much of anything. So my preference would be to raise/call the flop.
That said, if you want to take this line OTT I really like a shove instead. You look so much stronger and should have a bunch more FE, folding out all 5x hands, most backdoor spade draws, and maybe even folding out Jx with a weak kicker. When you size your raise the way you did, you get calls from a ton of stuff when he thinks you might be FOS -- which most players are in this spot, because wtf are you/they flatting that flop and raising this turn with?
So despite your reads I'd still raise this flop. And if I didn't, I'm shoving the turn every time. |
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drtre1987
Forum Farmacist
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 3212
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| Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2009 3:26 pm Post subject: |
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| nilgiri wrote: |
| adam27x wrote: |
| I think I have just as much fold equity OTT as I did OTF (which is a TON, btw) except that the pot OTT is way bigger and I get another bet out of him. |
This is faulty thinking in general. When you give an extra card to a player, they have a chance to hit something they didn't have before -- a draw, a pair, maybe 2pr or whatever. In addition, you are still making a proportionally sized raise -- that is, you are not raising the same amount but winning more, you are raising more and winning more.
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also, keep in mind that when someone bets the flop, they are doing it way too much, like cbetting 80-90% of the time, which is very exploitable. but when they 2b the turn, they are normally doing that at a much lower frequency (unless you have a read that he's 2 barrelling a lot) and their range is much more weighted towards value hands than it was OTF. a lot of people will cbet like 80% OTF, but then only 2 barrel like 30-50% (which would be 30-50% of their 80% flop range).
and then you also have to keep in mind that this board has not changed much at all. it would be completely different if the turn was an ace, which people barrel way too much, but it was a low card that paired the board, and there are pretty much no 4's in either of your ranges. so when he bets this turn, it is a bluff much less often than most other turn cards.
and you also need to go back to preflop, where he is raising UTG+2 in a FR game. so his range is much less likely to have air compared to if you were trying to call down vs a CO opener who will have a wide range pf and have a lot of air. a CO opener will have a lot more combos of T9, A7, QT type of air hands that might attempt to bluff since they have such little equity against your range. but an UTG+2's range will be much more likely to have a hand. |
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